Daily Papers

This paper introduces Typhoon 2, a series of text and multimodal large language models optimized for the Thai language. The series includes models for text, vision, and audio. Typhoon2-Text builds on state-of-the-art open models, such as Llama 3 and Qwen2, and we perform continual pre-training on a mixture of English and Thai data. We employ post-training techniques to enhance Thai language performance while preserving the base models' original capabilities. We release text models across a range of sizes, from 1 to 70 billion parameters, available in both base and instruction-tuned variants. To guardrail text generation, we release Typhoon2-Safety, a classifier enhanced for Thai cultures and language. Typhoon2-Vision improves Thai document understanding while retaining general visual capabilities, such as image captioning. Typhoon2-Audio introduces an end-to-end speech-to-speech model architecture capable of processing audio, speech, and text inputs and generating both text and speech outputs.

This paper introduces Typhoon T1, an open effort to develop an open Thai reasoning model. A reasoning model is a relatively new type of generative model built on top of large language models (LLMs). A reasoning model generates a long chain of thought before arriving at a final answer, an approach found to improve performance on complex tasks. However, details on developing such a model are limited, especially for reasoning models that can generate traces in a low-resource language. Typhoon T1 presents an open effort that dives into the details of developing a reasoning model in a more cost-effective way by leveraging supervised fine-tuning using open datasets, instead of reinforcement learning. This paper shares the details about synthetic data generation and training, as well as our dataset and model weights. Additionally, we provide insights gained from developing a reasoning model that generalizes across domains and is capable of generating reasoning traces in a low-resource language, using Thai as an example. We hope this open effort provides a foundation for further research in this field.

Typhoon is a series of Thai large language models (LLMs) developed specifically for the Thai language. This technical report presents challenges and insights in developing Thai LLMs, including data preparation, pretraining, instruction-tuning, and evaluation. As one of the challenges of low-resource languages is the amount of pretraining data, we apply continual training to transfer existing world knowledge from a strong LLM. To evaluate the Thai knowledge encapsulated in each model from the pretraining stage, we develop ThaiExam, a benchmark based on examinations for high-school students and investment professionals in Thailand. In addition, we fine-tune Typhoon to follow Thai instructions, and we evaluate instruction-tuned models on Thai instruction datasets as well as translation, summarization, and question-answering tasks. Experimental results on a suite of Thai benchmarks show that Typhoon outperforms all open-source Thai language models, and its performance is on par with GPT-3.5 in Thai while having only 7 billion parameters and being 2.62 times more efficient in tokenizing Thai text.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

The Philippines is a common ground to natural calamities like typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. With Twitter as one of the most used social media platform in the Philippines, a total of 39,867 preprocessed tweets were obtained given a time frame starting from November 1, 2013 to January 31, 2014. Sentiment analysis determines the underlying emotion given a series of words. The main purpose of this study is to identify the sentiments expressed in the tweets sent by the Filipino people before, during, and after Typhoon Yolanda using two variations of Recurrent Neural Networks; standard and bidirectional. The best generated models after training with various hyperparameters achieved a high accuracy of 81.79% for fine-grained classification using standard RNN and 87.69% for binary classification using bidirectional RNN. Findings revealed that 51.1% of the tweets sent were positive expressing support, love, and words of courage to the victims; 19.8% were negative stating sadness and despair for the loss of lives and hate for corrupt officials; while the other 29% were neutral tweets from local news stations, announcements of relief operations, donation drives, and observations by citizens.

Audio language models can understand audio inputs and perform a range of audio-related tasks based on instructions, such as speech recognition and audio captioning, where the instructions are usually textual prompts. Audio language models are mostly initialized from pre-trained audio encoders and large language models (LLMs). Although these pre-trained components were developed to support multiple languages, audio-language models are trained predominantly on English data, which may limit their usability to only English instructions or English speech inputs. First, this paper examines the performance of existing audio language models in an underserved language using Thai as an example. This paper demonstrates that, despite being built on multilingual backbones, audio language models do not exhibit cross-lingual emergent abilities to low-resource languages. Second, this paper studies data mixture for developing audio language models that are optimized for a target language as well as English. In addition. this paper integrates audio comprehension and speech instruction-following capabilities into a single unified model. Our experiments provide insights into data mixture for enhancing instruction-following capabilities in both a low-resource language and English. Our model, Typhoon-Audio, outperforms existing open-source audio language models by a considerable margin, and it is comparable to state-of-the-art Gemini-1.5-Pro in both English and Thai languages.

Existing machine learning models of weather variability are not formulated to enable assessment of their response to varying external boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. Here we present ACE2 (Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2) and its application to reproducing atmospheric variability over the past 80 years on timescales from days to decades. ACE2 is a 450M-parameter autoregressive machine learning emulator, operating with 6-hour temporal resolution, 1{\deg} horizontal resolution and eight vertical layers. It exactly conserves global dry air mass and moisture and can be stepped forward stably for arbitrarily many steps with a throughput of about 1500 simulated years per wall clock day. ACE2 generates emergent phenomena such as tropical cyclones, the Madden Julian Oscillation, and sudden stratospheric warmings. Furthermore, it accurately reproduces the atmospheric response to El Ni\~no variability and global trends of temperature over the past 80 years. However, its sensitivities to separately changing sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide are not entirely realistic.

To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained for semantic segmentation of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in climate data. Our primary focus is on tropical cyclones, the most destructive weather events, for which current models show limited performance. We investigate feature engineering, data augmentation, learning rate modifications, alternative loss functions, and architectural changes. In contrast to previous approaches optimizing for intersection over union, we specifically seek to improve recall to penalize under-counting and prioritize identification of tropical cyclones. We report success through the use of weighted loss functions to counter class imbalance for these rare events. We conclude with directions for future research on extreme weather events detection, a crucial task for prediction, mitigation, and equitable adaptation to the impacts of climate change.

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.