Daily Papers

Causal language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities, but their size poses significant challenges for deployment in resource-constrained environments. Knowledge distillation, a widely-used technique for transferring knowledge from a large teacher model to a small student model, presents a promising approach for model compression. A significant remaining issue lies in the major differences between teacher and student models, namely the substantial capacity gap, mode averaging, and mode collapse, which pose barriers during distillation. To address these issues, we introduce Temporally Adaptive Interpolated Distillation (TAID), a novel knowledge distillation approach that dynamically interpolates student and teacher distributions through an adaptive intermediate distribution, gradually shifting from the student's initial distribution towards the teacher's distribution. We provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating TAID's ability to prevent mode collapse and empirically show its effectiveness in addressing the capacity gap while balancing mode averaging and mode collapse. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate TAID's superior performance across various model sizes and architectures in both instruction tuning and pre-training scenarios. Furthermore, we showcase TAID's practical impact by developing two state-of-the-art compact foundation models: TAID-LLM-1.5B for language tasks and TAID-VLM-2B for vision-language tasks. These results demonstrate TAID's effectiveness in creating high-performing and efficient models, advancing the development of more accessible AI technologies.

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed learning method that offers medical institutes the prospect of collaboration in a global model while preserving the privacy of their patients. Although most medical centers conduct similar medical imaging tasks, their differences, such as specializations, number of patients, and devices, lead to distinctive data distributions. Data heterogeneity poses a challenge for FL and the personalization of the local models. In this work, we investigate an adaptive hierarchical clustering method for FL to produce intermediate semi-global models, so clients with similar data distribution have the chance of forming a more specialized model. Our method forms several clusters consisting of clients with the most similar data distributions; then, each cluster continues to train separately. Inside the cluster, we use meta-learning to improve the personalization of the participants' models. We compare the clustering approach with classical FedAvg and centralized training by evaluating our proposed methods on the HAM10k dataset for skin lesion classification with extreme heterogeneous data distribution. Our experiments demonstrate significant performance gain in heterogeneous distribution compared to standard FL methods in classification accuracy. Moreover, we show that the models converge faster if applied in clusters and outperform centralized training while using only a small subset of data.

The activation function plays a crucial role in model optimisation, yet the optimal choice remains unclear. For example, the Sigmoid activation is the de-facto activation in balanced classification tasks, however, in imbalanced classification, it proves inappropriate due to bias towards frequent classes. In this work, we delve deeper in this phenomenon by performing a comprehensive statistical analysis in the classification and intermediate layers of both balanced and imbalanced networks and we empirically show that aligning the activation function with the data distribution, enhances the performance in both balanced and imbalanced tasks. To this end, we propose the Adaptive Parametric Activation (APA) function, a novel and versatile activation function that unifies most common activation functions under a single formula. APA can be applied in both intermediate layers and attention layers, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art on several imbalanced benchmarks such as ImageNet-LT, iNaturalist2018, Places-LT, CIFAR100-LT and LVIS and balanced benchmarks such as ImageNet1K, COCO and V3DET. The code is available at https://github.com/kostas1515/AGLU.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Large-scale commercial platforms usually involve numerous business domains for diverse business strategies and expect their recommendation systems to provide click-through rate (CTR) predictions for multiple domains simultaneously. Existing promising and widely-used multi-domain models discover domain relationships by explicitly constructing domain-specific networks, but the computation and memory boost significantly with the increase of domains. To reduce computational complexity, manually grouping domains with particular business strategies is common in industrial applications. However, this pre-defined data partitioning way heavily relies on prior knowledge, and it may neglect the underlying data distribution of each domain, hence limiting the model's representation capability. Regarding the above issues, we propose an elegant and flexible multi-distribution modeling paradigm, named Adaptive Distribution Hierarchical Model (AdaptDHM), which is an end-to-end optimization hierarchical structure consisting of a clustering process and classification process. Specifically, we design a distribution adaptation module with a customized dynamic routing mechanism. Instead of introducing prior knowledge for pre-defined data allocation, this routing algorithm adaptively provides a distribution coefficient for each sample to determine which cluster it belongs to. Each cluster corresponds to a particular distribution so that the model can sufficiently capture the commonalities and distinctions between these distinct clusters. Extensive experiments on both public and large-scale Alibaba industrial datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of AdaptDHM: Our model achieves impressive prediction accuracy and its time cost during the training stage is more than 50% less than that of other models.

The surging demand for cloud computing resources, driven by the rapid growth of sophisticated large-scale models and data centers, underscores the critical importance of efficient and adaptive resource allocation. As major tech enterprises deploy massive infrastructures with thousands of GPUs, existing cloud platforms still struggle with low resource utilization due to key challenges: capturing hierarchical indicator structures, modeling non-Gaussian distributions, and decision-making under uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose HRAMONY, an adaptive Hierarchical Attention-based Resource Modeling and Decision-Making System. HARMONY combines hierarchical multi-indicator distribution forecasting and uncertainty-aware Bayesian decision-making. It introduces a novel hierarchical attention mechanism that comprehensively models complex inter-indicator dependencies, enabling accurate predictions that can adapt to evolving environment states. By transforming Gaussian projections into adaptive non-Gaussian distributions via Normalizing Flows. Crucially, HARMONY leverages the full predictive distributions in an adaptive Bayesian process, proactively incorporating uncertainties to optimize resource allocation while robustly meeting SLA constraints under varying conditions. Extensive evaluations across four large-scale cloud datasets demonstrate HARMONY's state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming nine established methods. A month-long real-world deployment validated HARMONY's substantial practical impact, realizing over 35,000 GPU hours in savings and translating to $100K+ in cost reduction, showcasing its remarkable economic value through adaptive, uncertainty-aware scaling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Floating-LY/HARMONY1.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

In this paper, we investigate the underexplored challenge of sample diversity in autoregressive (AR) generative models with bitwise visual tokenizers. We first analyze the factors that limit diversity in bitwise AR models and identify two key issues: (1) the binary classification nature of bitwise modeling, which restricts the prediction space, and (2) the overly sharp logits distribution, which causes sampling collapse and reduces diversity. Building on these insights, we propose DiverseAR, a principled and effective method that enhances image diversity without sacrificing visual quality. Specifically, we introduce an adaptive logits distribution scaling mechanism that dynamically adjusts the sharpness of the binary output distribution during sampling, resulting in smoother predictions and greater diversity. To mitigate potential fidelity loss caused by distribution smoothing, we further develop an energy-based generation path search algorithm that avoids sampling low-confidence tokens, thereby preserving high visual quality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DiverseAR substantially improves sample diversity in bitwise autoregressive image generation.

Recent offline meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) methods typically utilize task-dependent behavior policies (e.g., training RL agents on each individual task) to collect a multi-task dataset. However, these methods always require extra information for fast adaptation, such as offline context for testing tasks. To address this problem, we first formally characterize a unique challenge in offline meta-RL: transition-reward distribution shift between offline datasets and online adaptation. Our theory finds that out-of-distribution adaptation episodes may lead to unreliable policy evaluation and that online adaptation with in-distribution episodes can ensure adaptation performance guarantee. Based on these theoretical insights, we propose a novel adaptation framework, called In-Distribution online Adaptation with uncertainty Quantification (IDAQ), which generates in-distribution context using a given uncertainty quantification and performs effective task belief inference to address new tasks. We find a return-based uncertainty quantification for IDAQ that performs effectively. Experiments show that IDAQ achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Meta-World ML1 benchmark compared to baselines with/without offline adaptation.

Large pre-trained, zero-shot capable models have shown considerable success both for standard transfer and adaptation tasks, with particular robustness towards distribution shifts. In addition, subsequent fine-tuning can considerably improve performance on a selected downstream task. However, through naive fine-tuning, these zero-shot models lose their generalizability and robustness towards distribution shifts. This is a particular problem for tasks such as Continual Learning (CL), where continuous adaptation has to be performed as new task distributions are introduced sequentially. In this work, we showcase that where fine-tuning falls short to adapt such zero-shot capable models, simple momentum-based weight interpolation can provide consistent improvements for CL tasks in both memory-free and memory-based settings. In particular, we find improvements of over +4% on standard CL benchmarks, while reducing the error to the upper limit of jointly training on all tasks at once in parts by more than half, allowing the continual learner to inch closer to the joint training limits.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

Stable diffusion, a generative model used in text-to-image synthesis, frequently encounters resolution-induced composition problems when generating images of varying sizes. This issue primarily stems from the model being trained on pairs of single-scale images and their corresponding text descriptions. Moreover, direct training on images of unlimited sizes is unfeasible, as it would require an immense number of text-image pairs and entail substantial computational expenses. To overcome these challenges, we propose a two-stage pipeline named Any-Size-Diffusion (ASD), designed to efficiently generate well-composed images of any size, while minimizing the need for high-memory GPU resources. Specifically, the initial stage, dubbed Any Ratio Adaptability Diffusion (ARAD), leverages a selected set of images with a restricted range of ratios to optimize the text-conditional diffusion model, thereby improving its ability to adjust composition to accommodate diverse image sizes. To support the creation of images at any desired size, we further introduce a technique called Fast Seamless Tiled Diffusion (FSTD) at the subsequent stage. This method allows for the rapid enlargement of the ASD output to any high-resolution size, avoiding seaming artifacts or memory overloads. Experimental results on the LAION-COCO and MM-CelebA-HQ benchmarks demonstrate that ASD can produce well-structured images of arbitrary sizes, cutting down the inference time by 2x compared to the traditional tiled algorithm.

Quantized neural networks typically require smaller memory footprints and lower computation complexity, which is crucial for efficient deployment. However, quantization inevitably leads to a distribution divergence from the original network, which generally degrades the performance. To tackle this issue, massive efforts have been made, but most existing approaches lack statistical considerations and depend on several manual configurations. In this paper, we present an adaptive-mapping quantization method to learn an optimal latent sub-distribution that is inherent within models and smoothly approximated with a concrete Gaussian Mixture (GM). In particular, the network weights are projected in compliance with the GM-approximated sub-distribution. This sub-distribution evolves along with the weight update in a co-tuning schema guided by the direct task-objective optimization. Sufficient experiments on image classification and object detection over various modern architectures demonstrate the effectiveness, generalization property, and transferability of the proposed method. Besides, an efficient deployment flow for the mobile CPU is developed, achieving up to 7.46times inference acceleration on an octa-core ARM CPU. Our codes have been publicly released at https://github.com/RunpeiDong/DGMS.

We theoretically explore the relationship between sample-efficiency and adaptivity in reinforcement learning. An algorithm is sample-efficient if it uses a number of queries n to the environment that is polynomial in the dimension d of the problem. Adaptivity refers to the frequency at which queries are sent and feedback is processed to update the querying strategy. To investigate this interplay, we employ a learning framework that allows sending queries in K batches, with feedback being processed and queries updated after each batch. This model encompasses the whole adaptivity spectrum, ranging from non-adaptive 'offline' (K=1) to fully adaptive (K=n) scenarios, and regimes in between. For the problems of policy evaluation and best-policy identification under d-dimensional linear function approximation, we establish Omega(log log d) lower bounds on the number of batches K required for sample-efficient algorithms with n = O(poly(d)) queries. Our results show that just having adaptivity (K>1) does not necessarily guarantee sample-efficiency. Notably, the adaptivity-boundary for sample-efficiency is not between offline reinforcement learning (K=1), where sample-efficiency was known to not be possible, and adaptive settings. Instead, the boundary lies between different regimes of adaptivity and depends on the problem dimension.

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample (X,Y) drawn from a distribution D and will face a model h and its classification result h(X). Agents can modify X to adapt to h, which will incur a distribution shift on (X,Y). Our formulation is motivated by applications where the deployed machine learning models are subjected to human agents, and will ultimately face responsive and interactive data distributions. We formalize the discussions of the transferability of a model by studying how the performance of the model trained on the available source distribution (data) would translate to the performance on its induced domain. We provide both upper bounds for the performance gap due to the induced domain shift, as well as lower bounds for the trade-offs that a classifier has to suffer on either the source training distribution or the induced target distribution. We provide further instantiated analysis for two popular domain adaptation settings, including covariate shift and target shift.

Real-world data streams exhibit inherent non-stationarity characterized by concept drift, posing significant challenges for adaptive learning systems. While existing methods address isolated distribution shifts, they overlook the critical co-evolution of label spaces and distributions under limited supervision and persistent uncertainty. To address this, we formalize Generalized Incremental Learning under Concept Drift (GILCD), characterizing the joint evolution of distributions and label spaces in open-environment streaming contexts, and propose a novel framework called Calibrated Source-Free Adaptation (CSFA). First, CSFA introduces a training-free prototype calibration mechanism that dynamically fuses emerging prototypes with base representations, enabling stable new-class identification without optimization overhead. Second, we design a novel source-free adaptation algorithm, i.e., Reliable Surrogate Gap Sharpness-aware (RSGS) minimization. It integrates sharpness-aware perturbation loss optimization with surrogate gap minimization, while employing entropy-based uncertainty filtering to discard unreliable samples. This mechanism ensures robust distribution alignment and mitigates generalization degradation caused by uncertainties. Therefore, CSFA establishes a unified framework for stable adaptation to evolving semantics and distributions in open-world streaming scenarios. Extensive experiments validate the superior performance and effectiveness of CSFA compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

We propose a method for adapting neural networks to distribution shifts at test-time. In contrast to training-time robustness mechanisms that attempt to anticipate and counter the shift, we create a closed-loop system and make use of a test-time feedback signal to adapt a network on the fly. We show that this loop can be effectively implemented using a learning-based function, which realizes an amortized optimizer for the network. This leads to an adaptation method, named Rapid Network Adaptation (RNA), that is notably more flexible and orders of magnitude faster than the baselines. Through a broad set of experiments using various adaptation signals and target tasks, we study the efficiency and flexibility of this method. We perform the evaluations using various datasets (Taskonomy, Replica, ScanNet, Hypersim, COCO, ImageNet), tasks (depth, optical flow, semantic segmentation, classification), and distribution shifts (Cross-datasets, 2D and 3D Common Corruptions) with promising results. We end with a discussion on general formulations for handling distribution shifts and our observations from comparing with similar approaches from other domains.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Differentiable architecture search (DARTS) yields highly efficient gradient-based neural architecture search (NAS) by relaxing the discrete operation selection to optimize continuous architecture parameters that maps NAS from the discrete optimization to a continuous problem. DARTS then remaps the relaxed supernet back to the discrete space by one-off post-search pruning to obtain the final architecture (finalnet). Some emerging works argue that this remap is inherently prone to mismatch the network between training and evaluation which leads to performance discrepancy and even model collapse in extreme cases. We propose to close the gap between the relaxed supernet in training and the pruned finalnet in evaluation through utilizing small temperature to sparsify the continuous distribution in the training phase. To this end, we first formulate sparse-noisy softmax to get around gradient saturation. We then propose an exponential temperature schedule to better control the outbound distribution and elaborate an entropy-based adaptive scheme to finally achieve the enhancement. We conduct extensive experiments to verify the efficiency and efficacy of our method.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is crucial to modern deep learning applications by identifying and alerting about the OOD samples that should not be tested or used for making predictions. Current OOD detection methods have made significant progress when in-distribution (ID) and OOD samples are drawn from static distributions. However, this can be unrealistic when applied to real-world systems which often undergo continuous variations and shifts in ID and OOD distributions over time. Therefore, for an effective application in real-world systems, the development of OOD detection methods that can adapt to these dynamic and evolving distributions is essential. In this paper, we propose a novel and more realistic setting called continuously adaptive out-of-distribution (CAOOD) detection which targets on developing an OOD detection model that enables dynamic and quick adaptation to a new arriving distribution, with insufficient ID samples during deployment time. To address CAOOD, we develop meta OOD learning (MOL) by designing a learning-to-adapt diagram such that a good initialized OOD detection model is learned during the training process. In the testing process, MOL ensures OOD detection performance over shifting distributions by quickly adapting to new distributions with a few adaptations. Extensive experiments on several OOD benchmarks endorse the effectiveness of our method in preserving both ID classification accuracy and OOD detection performance on continuously shifting distributions.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL)-based post-training have led to notable improvements in large language models (LLMs), particularly in enhancing their reasoning capabilities to handle complex tasks. However, most existing methods treat the training data as a unified whole, overlooking the fact that modern LLM training often involves a mixture of data from diverse distributions-varying in both source and difficulty. This heterogeneity introduces a key challenge: how to adaptively schedule training across distributions to optimize learning efficiency. In this paper, we present a principled curriculum learning framework grounded in the notion of distribution-level learnability. Our core insight is that the magnitude of policy advantages reflects how much a model can still benefit from further training on a given distribution. Based on this, we propose a distribution-level curriculum learning framework for RL-based LLM post-training, which leverages the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) principle to dynamically adjust sampling probabilities for different distrubutions. This approach prioritizes distributions with either high average advantage (exploitation) or low sample count (exploration), yielding an adaptive and theoretically grounded training schedule. We instantiate our curriculum learning framework with GRPO as the underlying RL algorithm and demonstrate its effectiveness on logic reasoning datasets with multiple difficulties and sources. Our experiments show that our framework significantly improves convergence speed and final performance, highlighting the value of distribution-aware curriculum strategies in LLM post-training. Code: https://github.com/ZhentingWang/DUMP.

We study the problem of adaptively identifying patient subpopulations that benefit from a given treatment during a confirmatory clinical trial. This type of adaptive clinical trial has been thoroughly studied in biostatistics, but has been allowed only limited adaptivity so far. Here, we aim to relax classical restrictions on such designs and investigate how to incorporate ideas from the recent machine learning literature on adaptive and online experimentation to make trials more flexible and efficient. We find that the unique characteristics of the subpopulation selection problem -- most importantly that (i) one is usually interested in finding subpopulations with any treatment benefit (and not necessarily the single subgroup with largest effect) given a limited budget and that (ii) effectiveness only has to be demonstrated across the subpopulation on average -- give rise to interesting challenges and new desiderata when designing algorithmic solutions. Building on these findings, we propose AdaGGI and AdaGCPI, two meta-algorithms for subpopulation construction. We empirically investigate their performance across a range of simulation scenarios and derive insights into their (dis)advantages across different settings.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by leveraging (conditional) instrumental variables, enabling estimation through encouragement and recommendation rather than strict treatment assignment. However, the sample efficiency of such estimators depends not only on the inherent variability in outcomes but also on the varying compliance levels of users with the instrumental variables and the choice of estimator being used, especially when dealing with numerous instrumental variables. While adaptive experiment design has a rich literature for direct experiments, in this paper we take the initial steps towards enhancing sample efficiency for indirect experiments by adaptively designing a data collection policy over instrumental variables. Our main contribution is a practical computational procedure that utilizes influence functions to search for an optimal data collection policy, minimizing the mean-squared error of the desired (non-linear) estimator. Through experiments conducted in various domains inspired by real-world applications, we showcase how our method can significantly improve the sample efficiency of indirect experiments.

Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.

The choice of batch sizes in stochastic gradient optimizers is critical for model training. However, the practice of varying batch sizes throughout the training process is less explored compared to other hyperparameters. We investigate adaptive batch size strategies derived from adaptive sampling methods, traditionally applied only in stochastic gradient descent. Given the significant interplay between learning rates and batch sizes, and considering the prevalence of adaptive gradient methods in deep learning, we emphasize the need for adaptive batch size strategies in these contexts. We introduce AdAdaGrad and its scalar variant AdAdaGradNorm, which incrementally increase batch sizes during training, while model updates are performed using AdaGrad and AdaGradNorm. We prove that AdaGradNorm converges with high probability at a rate of O(1/K) for finding a first-order stationary point of smooth nonconvex functions within K iterations. AdaGrad also demonstrates similar convergence properties when integrated with a novel coordinate-wise variant of our adaptive batch size strategies. Our theoretical claims are supported by numerical experiments on various image classification tasks, highlighting the enhanced adaptability of progressive batching protocols in deep learning and the potential of such adaptive batch size strategies with adaptive gradient optimizers in large-scale model training.

In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For the case of neural network weight matrices, we propose maintaining only the per-row and per-column sums of these moving averages, and estimating the per-parameter second moments based on these sums. We demonstrate empirically that this method produces similar results to the baseline. Secondly, we show that adaptive methods can produce larger-than-desired updates when the decay rate of the second moment accumulator is too slow. We propose update clipping and a gradually increasing decay rate scheme as remedies. Combining these methods and dropping momentum, we achieve comparable results to the published Adam regime in training the Transformer model on the WMT 2014 English-German machine translation task, while using very little auxiliary storage in the optimizer. Finally, we propose scaling the parameter updates based on the scale of the parameters themselves.

Deep classifiers are known to be sensitive to data distribution shifts, primarily due to their reliance on spurious correlations in training data. It has been suggested that these classifiers can still find useful features in the network's last layer that hold up under such shifts. In this work, we question the use of last-layer representations for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalisation and explore the utility of intermediate layers. To this end, we introduce Intermediate Layer Classifiers (ILCs). We discover that intermediate layer representations frequently offer substantially better generalisation than those from the penultimate layer. In many cases, zero-shot OOD generalisation using earlier-layer representations approaches the few-shot performance of retraining on penultimate layer representations. This is confirmed across multiple datasets, architectures, and types of distribution shifts. Our analysis suggests that intermediate layers are less sensitive to distribution shifts compared to the penultimate layer. These findings highlight the importance of understanding how information is distributed across network layers and its role in OOD generalisation, while also pointing to the limits of penultimate layer representation utility. Code is available at https://github.com/oshapio/intermediate-layer-generalization

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

We present Entropy Adaptive Decoding (EAD), a novel approach for efficient language model inference that dynamically switches between different-sized models based on prediction uncertainty. By monitoring rolling entropy in model logit distributions, our method identifies text regions where a smaller model suffices and switches to a larger model only when prediction uncertainty exceeds a threshold. Unlike speculative decoding approaches that maintain perfect output fidelity through verification, EAD accepts controlled output divergence in exchange for computational efficiency. Our experiments on the MATH benchmark demonstrate remarkable efficiency gains across different model families. Using the LLaMA family, we maintain 96.7\% of the 11B model's performance (50.4\% vs 52.1\%) while using it for only 43\% of tokens, decreasing computational cost by 41.5\%. These gains become more pronounced with larger size differentials in the Qwen family, where we achieve 92.9\% of the 14B model's performance (74.3\% vs 80.0\%) while using it for just 25\% of tokens, decreasing computational cost by 67\%. The consistency of these results across model pairs suggests that language model computation can be significantly optimized by selectively deploying model capacity based on local generation complexity. Our findings indicate that current approaches to model inference may be unnecessarily conservative in their pursuit of perfect output fidelity, and that accepting minor performance trade-offs can enable dramatic reductions in computational costs.

We study the problem of multi-task learning under user-level differential privacy, in which n users contribute data to m tasks, each involving a subset of users. One important aspect of the problem, that can significantly impact quality, is the distribution skew among tasks. Certain tasks may have much fewer data samples than others, making them more susceptible to the noise added for privacy. It is natural to ask whether algorithms can adapt to this skew to improve the overall utility. We give a systematic analysis of the problem, by studying how to optimally allocate a user's privacy budget among tasks. We propose a generic algorithm, based on an adaptive reweighting of the empirical loss, and show that when there is task distribution skew, this gives a quantifiable improvement of excess empirical risk. Experimental studies on recommendation problems that exhibit a long tail of small tasks, demonstrate that our methods significantly improve utility, achieving the state of the art on two standard benchmarks.

The ability of the deep learning model to recognize when a sample falls outside its learned distribution is critical for safe and reliable deployment. Recent state-of-the-art out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods leverage activation shaping to improve the separation between in-distribution (ID) and OOD inputs. These approaches resort to sample-specific scaling but apply a static percentile threshold across all samples regardless of their nature, resulting in suboptimal ID-OOD separability. In this work, we propose AdaSCALE, an adaptive scaling procedure that dynamically adjusts the percentile threshold based on a sample's estimated OOD likelihood. This estimation leverages our key observation: OOD samples exhibit significantly more pronounced activation shifts at high-magnitude activations under minor perturbation compared to ID samples. AdaSCALE enables stronger scaling for likely ID samples and weaker scaling for likely OOD samples, yielding highly separable energy scores. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art OOD detection performance, outperforming the latest rival OptFS by 14.94 in near-OOD and 21.67 in far-OOD datasets in average FPR@95 metric on the ImageNet-1k benchmark across eight diverse architectures. The code is available at: https://github.com/sudarshanregmi/AdaSCALE/

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or involve computationally expensive nested Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) loops. In contrast, the proposed approach leverages stochastic averaging within a slow-fast system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to estimate intermediate scores along a diffusion path without training or inner-loop MCMC. Two algorithms are developed under this framework: MultALMC, which uses multiscale annealed Langevin dynamics, and MultCDiff, based on multiscale controlled diffusions for the reverse-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both overdamped and underdamped variants are considered, with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the desired diffusion path. The framework is extended to handle heavy-tailed target distributions using Student's t-based noise models and tailored fast-process dynamics. Empirical results across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, including multimodal and high-dimensional distributions, demonstrate that the proposed methods are competitive with existing samplers in terms of accuracy and efficiency, without the need for learned models.

We introduce ADEPT: Adaptive Data ExPloiTation, a simple yet powerful framework to enhance the **data efficiency** and **generalization** in deep reinforcement learning (RL). Specifically, ADEPT adaptively manages the use of sampled data across different learning stages via multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms, optimizing data utilization while mitigating overfitting. Moreover, ADEPT can significantly reduce the computational overhead and accelerate a wide range of RL algorithms. We test ADEPT on benchmarks including Procgen, MiniGrid, and PyBullet. Extensive simulation demonstrates that ADEPT can achieve superior performance with remarkable computational efficiency, offering a practical solution to data-efficient RL. Our code is available at https://github.com/yuanmingqi/ADEPT.

Humans have the ability to adapt the type of information they use, the procedure they employ, and the amount of time they spend when solving problems. However, most standard neural networks have a fixed function type and computation budget regardless of the sample's nature or difficulty. Adaptivity is a powerful paradigm as it not only imbues practitioners with flexibility pertaining to the downstream usage of these models but can also serve as a powerful inductive bias for solving certain challenging classes of problems. In this work, we introduce a new approach called AdaTape, which allows for dynamic computation in neural networks through adaptive tape tokens. AdaTape utilizes an elastic input sequence by equipping an architecture with a dynamic read-and-write tape. Specifically, we adaptively generate input sequences using tape tokens obtained from a tape bank which can be either trainable or derived from input data. We examine the challenges and requirements to obtain dynamic sequence content and length, and propose the Adaptive Tape Reading (ATR) algorithm to achieve both goals. Through extensive experiments on image recognition tasks, we show that AdaTape can achieve better performance while maintaining the computational cost. To facilitate further research, we have released code at https://github.com/google-research/scenic.

Fast changing states or volatile environments pose a significant challenge to online optimization, which needs to perform rapid adaptation under limited observation. In this paper, we give query and regret optimal bandit algorithms under the strict notion of strongly adaptive regret, which measures the maximum regret over any contiguous interval I. Due to its worst-case nature, there is an almost-linear Omega(|I|^{1-epsilon}) regret lower bound, when only one query per round is allowed [Daniely el al, ICML 2015]. Surprisingly, with just two queries per round, we give Strongly Adaptive Bandit Learner (StABL) that achieves O(n|I|) adaptive regret for multi-armed bandits with n arms. The bound is tight and cannot be improved in general. Our algorithm leverages a multiplicative update scheme of varying stepsizes and a carefully chosen observation distribution to control the variance. Furthermore, we extend our results and provide optimal algorithms in the bandit convex optimization setting. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithms under volatile environments and for downstream tasks, such as algorithm selection for hyperparameter optimization.

The generation speed of LLMs are bottlenecked by autoregressive decoding, where tokens are predicted sequentially one by one. Alternatively, diffusion large language models (dLLMs) theoretically allow for parallel token generation, but in practice struggle to achieve the speed of autoregressive models without significantly sacrificing quality. We therefore introduce adaptive parallel decoding (APD), a novel method that dynamically adjusts the number of tokens sampled in parallel. We achieve this by defining a multiplicative mixture between the dLLM marginal probabilities and the joint probability of sequences under a small auxiliary autoregressive model. This inverts the standard setup of speculative decoding, where the goal is to sample from a large autoregressive verifier by drafting from a smaller model. We further optimize APD by enabling KV caching and limiting the size of the masked input. Altogether, our method puts forward three tunable parameters to flexibly tradeoff throughput and quality. We show that APD provides markedly higher throughput with minimal quality degradations on downstream benchmarks.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models, and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

Quantization to low bitwidth is a standard approach for deploying large language models, however, a few extreme weights and activations stretch the dynamic range and reduce the effective resolution of the quantizer. A common mitigation approach is to apply some fixed orthogonal transforms, such as Hadamard matrices, before quantization, which typically reduces the dynamic range. Yet, these transforms ignore the statistics of the data, and their optimality is currently not understood. In this work, we derive, for the first time, closed-form optimal linear blockwise transforms for joint weight-activation quantization using standard data-free quantizers for common numerical formats. Specifically, we provide derivations of the optimal adaptive (data-aware) transforms for round-to-nearest (RTN), AbsMax-scaled block quantizers for both integer and floating-point formats. The resulting construction, which we call WUSH, combines a Hadamard backbone with a data-dependent component based on second-order moments, yielding a non-orthogonal transform that is provably optimal under mild assumptions and remains structured for efficient implementation. Preliminary experimental results show that our approach consistently improves upon the Hadamard transform for common formats.

Adapting a pre-trained foundation model on downstream tasks should ensure robustness against distribution shifts without the need to retrain the whole model. Although existing weight interpolation methods are simple yet effective, we argue their static nature limits downstream performance while achieving efficiency. In this work, we propose DaWin, a training-free dynamic weight interpolation method that leverages the entropy of individual models over each unlabeled test sample to assess model expertise, and compute per-sample interpolation coefficients dynamically. Unlike previous works that typically rely on additional training to learn such coefficients, our approach requires no training. Then, we propose a mixture modeling approach that greatly reduces inference overhead raised by dynamic interpolation. We validate DaWin on the large-scale visual recognition benchmarks, spanning 14 tasks across robust fine-tuning -- ImageNet and derived five distribution shift benchmarks -- and multi-task learning with eight classification tasks. Results demonstrate that DaWin achieves significant performance gain in considered settings, with minimal computational overhead. We further discuss DaWin's analytic behavior to explain its empirical success.

Diffusion models have recently achieved great success in the synthesis of high-quality images and videos. However, the existing denoising techniques in diffusion models are commonly based on step-by-step noise predictions, which suffers from high computation cost, resulting in a prohibitive latency for interactive applications. In this paper, we propose AdaptiveDiffusion to relieve this bottleneck by adaptively reducing the noise prediction steps during the denoising process. Our method considers the potential of skipping as many noise prediction steps as possible while keeping the final denoised results identical to the original full-step ones. Specifically, the skipping strategy is guided by the third-order latent difference that indicates the stability between timesteps during the denoising process, which benefits the reusing of previous noise prediction results. Extensive experiments on image and video diffusion models demonstrate that our method can significantly speed up the denoising process while generating identical results to the original process, achieving up to an average 2~5x speedup without quality degradation.

Visual instruction datasets from various distributors are released at different times and often contain a significant number of semantically redundant text-image pairs, depending on their task compositions (i.e., skills) or reference sources. This redundancy greatly limits the efficient deployment of lifelong adaptable multimodal large language models, hindering their ability to refine existing skills and acquire new competencies over time. To address this, we reframe the problem of Lifelong Instruction Tuning (LiIT) via data selection, where the model automatically selects beneficial samples to learn from earlier and new datasets based on the current state of acquired knowledge in the model. Based on empirical analyses that show that selecting the best data subset using a static importance measure is often ineffective for multi-task datasets with evolving distributions, we propose Adapt-infty, a new multi-way and adaptive data selection approach that dynamically balances sample efficiency and effectiveness during LiIT. We construct pseudo-skill clusters by grouping gradient-based sample vectors. Next, we select the best-performing data selector for each skill cluster from a pool of selector experts, including our newly proposed scoring function, Image Grounding score. This data selector samples a subset of the most important samples from each skill cluster for training. To prevent the continuous increase in the size of the dataset pool during LiIT, which would result in excessive computation, we further introduce a cluster-wise permanent data pruning strategy to remove the most semantically redundant samples from each cluster, keeping computational requirements manageable. Training with samples selected by Adapt-infty alleviates catastrophic forgetting, especially for rare tasks, and promotes forward transfer across the continuum using only a fraction of the original datasets.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

Continual learning entails learning a sequence of tasks and balancing their knowledge appropriately. With limited access to old training samples, much of the current work in deep neural networks has focused on overcoming catastrophic forgetting of old tasks in gradient-based optimization. However, the normalization layers provide an exception, as they are updated interdependently by the gradient and statistics of currently observed training samples, which require specialized strategies to mitigate recency bias. In this work, we focus on the most popular Batch Normalization (BN) and provide an in-depth theoretical analysis of its sub-optimality in continual learning. Our analysis demonstrates the dilemma between balance and adaptation of BN statistics for incremental tasks, which potentially affects training stability and generalization. Targeting on these particular challenges, we propose Adaptive Balance of BN (AdaB^2N), which incorporates appropriately a Bayesian-based strategy to adapt task-wise contributions and a modified momentum to balance BN statistics, corresponding to the training and testing stages. By implementing BN in a continual learning fashion, our approach achieves significant performance gains across a wide range of benchmarks, particularly for the challenging yet realistic online scenarios (e.g., up to 7.68%, 6.86% and 4.26% on Split CIFAR-10, Split CIFAR-100 and Split Mini-ImageNet, respectively). Our code is available at https://github.com/lvyilin/AdaB2N.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

In this paper, we study the infinite-depth limit of finite-width residual neural networks with random Gaussian weights. With proper scaling, we show that by fixing the width and taking the depth to infinity, the pre-activations converge in distribution to a zero-drift diffusion process. Unlike the infinite-width limit where the pre-activation converge weakly to a Gaussian random variable, we show that the infinite-depth limit yields different distributions depending on the choice of the activation function. We document two cases where these distributions have closed-form (different) expressions. We further show an intriguing change of regime phenomenon of the post-activation norms when the width increases from 3 to 4. Lastly, we study the sequential limit infinite-depth-then-infinite-width and compare it with the more commonly studied infinite-width-then-infinite-depth limit.

While efficient distribution learning is no doubt behind the groundbreaking success of diffusion modeling, its theoretical guarantees are quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous analysis on approximation and generalization abilities of diffusion modeling for well-known function spaces. The highlight of this paper is that when the true density function belongs to the Besov space and the empirical score matching loss is properly minimized, the generated data distribution achieves the nearly minimax optimal estimation rates in the total variation distance and in the Wasserstein distance of order one. Furthermore, we extend our theory to demonstrate how diffusion models adapt to low-dimensional data distributions. We expect these results advance theoretical understandings of diffusion modeling and its ability to generate verisimilar outputs.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Large Language Models (LLMs) process every token through all layers of a transformer stack, causing wasted computation on simple queries and insufficient flexibility for harder ones that need deeper reasoning. Adaptive-depth methods can improve efficiency, but prior approaches rely on costly inference-time search, architectural changes, or large-scale retraining, and in practice often degrade accuracy despite efficiency gains. We introduce Dr.LLM, Dynamic routing of Layers for LLMs, a retrofittable framework that equips pretrained models with lightweight per-layer routers deciding to skip, execute, or repeat a block. Routers are trained with explicit supervision: using Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), we derive high-quality layer configurations that preserve or improve accuracy under a compute budget. Our design, windowed pooling for stable routing, focal loss with class balancing, and bottleneck MLP routers, ensures robustness under class imbalance and long sequences. On ARC (logic) and DART (math), Dr.LLM improves accuracy by up to +3.4%p while saving 5 layers per example on average. Routers generalize to out-of-domain tasks (MMLU, GSM8k, AIME, TruthfulQA, SQuADv2, GPQA, PIQA, AGIEval) with only 0.85% accuracy drop while retaining efficiency, and outperform prior routing methods by up to +7.7%p. Overall, Dr.LLM shows that explicitly supervised routers retrofit frozen LLMs for budget-aware, accuracy-driven inference without altering base weights.

Appropriately designing the proposal kernel of particle filters is an issue of significant importance, since a bad choice may lead to deterioration of the particle sample and, consequently, waste of computational power. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm adaptively approximating the so-called optimal proposal kernel by a mixture of integrated curved exponential distributions with logistic weights. This family of distributions, referred to as mixtures of experts, is broad enough to be used in the presence of multi-modality or strongly skewed distributions. The mixtures are fitted, via online-EM methods, to the optimal kernel through minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the auxiliary target and instrumental distributions of the particle filter. At each iteration of the particle filter, the algorithm is required to solve only a single optimisation problem for the whole particle sample, yielding an algorithm with only linear complexity. In addition, we illustrate in a simulation study how the method can be successfully applied to optimal filtering in nonlinear state-space models.

This paper introduces an efficient fine-tuning method for large pre-trained models, offering strong in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance. Breaking away from traditional practices that need a multitude of fine-tuned models for averaging, our approach employs significantly fewer models to achieve final weights yet yield superior accuracy. Drawing from key insights in the weight space of fine-tuned weights, we uncover a strong link between the performance and proximity to the center of weight space. Based on this, we introduce a method that approximates a center-close weight using only two fine-tuned models, applicable during or after training. Our innovative layer-wise weight averaging technique surpasses state-of-the-art model methods such as Model Soup, utilizing only two fine-tuned models. This strategy can be aptly coined Model Stock, highlighting its reliance on selecting a minimal number of models to draw a more optimized-averaged model. We demonstrate the efficacy of Model Stock with fine-tuned models based upon pre-trained CLIP architectures, achieving remarkable performance on both ID and OOD tasks on the standard benchmarks, all while barely bringing extra computational demands. Our code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/naver-ai/model-stock.

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special cases of ARDMs under mild assumptions. ARDMs are simple to implement and easy to train. Unlike standard ARMs, they do not require causal masking of model representations, and can be trained using an efficient objective similar to modern probabilistic diffusion models that scales favourably to highly-dimensional data. At test time, ARDMs support parallel generation which can be adapted to fit any given generation budget. We find that ARDMs require significantly fewer steps than discrete diffusion models to attain the same performance. Finally, we apply ARDMs to lossless compression, and show that they are uniquely suited to this task. Contrary to existing approaches based on bits-back coding, ARDMs obtain compelling results not only on complete datasets, but also on compressing single data points. Moreover, this can be done using a modest number of network calls for (de)compression due to the model's adaptable parallel generation.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Adaptive optimization methods such as AdaGrad, RMSprop and Adam have been proposed to achieve a rapid training process with an element-wise scaling term on learning rates. Though prevailing, they are observed to generalize poorly compared with SGD or even fail to converge due to unstable and extreme learning rates. Recent work has put forward some algorithms such as AMSGrad to tackle this issue but they failed to achieve considerable improvement over existing methods. In our paper, we demonstrate that extreme learning rates can lead to poor performance. We provide new variants of Adam and AMSGrad, called AdaBound and AMSBound respectively, which employ dynamic bounds on learning rates to achieve a gradual and smooth transition from adaptive methods to SGD and give a theoretical proof of convergence. We further conduct experiments on various popular tasks and models, which is often insufficient in previous work. Experimental results show that new variants can eliminate the generalization gap between adaptive methods and SGD and maintain higher learning speed early in training at the same time. Moreover, they can bring significant improvement over their prototypes, especially on complex deep networks. The implementation of the algorithm can be found at https://github.com/Luolc/AdaBound .

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) improves language models by allocating more computation at generation time. Particle Filtering (PF) has emerged as a strong ITS method for complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but it is vulnerable when guided by process reward models, which often assign overconfident scores early in the reasoning process. This causes PF to suffer from premature exploitation: it myopically commits to locally promising trajectories, prunes potentially correct hypotheses, and converges to suboptimal solutions. This failure mode, known as particle impoverishment, is especially severe under constrained computational budgets. To address this, we analyze the problem and identify two root causes: a lack of diversity in the particle set due to overconfident resampling and consequent inability to assess the potential of a reasoning path. We introduce Entropic Particle Filtering (ePF), an algorithm that integrates two new techniques to solve these issues. The first technique, Entropic Annealing (EA), directly mitigates particle impoverishment by monitoring search diversity via entropy; when diversity drops, it intervenes by dynamically annealing the resampling distribution to preserve exploration. The second, an enhancement called Look-ahead Modulation (LaM), adds a predictive guide to evaluate a state's potential based on its successors. On several challenging math benchmarks, ePF significantly outperforms strong baselines and achieves up to a 50 % relative improvement in task reward. Together, these methods improve PF's resilience by balancing the exploration of diverse solution spaces with the exploitation of high-reward regions, ultimately leading to higher-quality solutions.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

We consider the problem of learning in a non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL) environment, where the setting can be fully described by a piecewise stationary discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP). We introduce a variant of the Restarted Bayesian Online Change-Point Detection algorithm (R-BOCPD) that operates on input streams originating from the more general multinomial distribution and provides near-optimal theoretical guarantees in terms of false-alarm rate and detection delay. Based on this, we propose an improved version of the UCRL2 algorithm for MDPs with state transition kernel sampled from a multinomial distribution, which we call R-BOCPD-UCRL2. We perform a finite-time performance analysis and show that R-BOCPD-UCRL2 enjoys a favorable regret bound of Oleft(D O A T K_T logleft (frac{T{delta} right) + K_T log frac{K_T{delta}}{minlimits_ell : KLleft( {theta^{(ell+1)}}midmathbf{theta^{(ell)}}right)}}right), where D is the largest MDP diameter from the set of MDPs defining the piecewise stationary MDP setting, O is the finite number of states (constant over all changes), A is the finite number of actions (constant over all changes), K_T is the number of change points up to horizon T, and theta^{(ell)} is the transition kernel during the interval [c_ell, c_{ell+1}), which we assume to be multinomially distributed over the set of states O. Interestingly, the performance bound does not directly scale with the variation in MDP state transition distributions and rewards, ie. can also model abrupt changes. In practice, R-BOCPD-UCRL2 outperforms the state-of-the-art in a variety of scenarios in synthetic environments. We provide a detailed experimental setup along with a code repository (upon publication) that can be used to easily reproduce our experiments.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Large language models show promise for financial decision-making, yet deploying them as autonomous trading agents raises fundamental challenges: how to adapt instructions when rewards arrive late and obscured by market noise, how to synthesize heterogeneous information streams into coherent decisions, and how to bridge the gap between model outputs and executable market actions. We present ATLAS (Adaptive Trading with LLM AgentS), a unified multi-agent framework that integrates structured information from markets, news, and corporate fundamentals to support robust trading decisions. Within ATLAS, the central trading agent operates in an order-aware action space, ensuring that outputs correspond to executable market orders rather than abstract signals. The agent can incorporate feedback while trading using Adaptive-OPRO, a novel prompt-optimization technique that dynamically adapts the prompt by incorporating real-time, stochastic feedback, leading to increasing performance over time. Across regime-specific equity studies and multiple LLM families, Adaptive-OPRO consistently outperforms fixed prompts, while reflection-based feedback fails to provide systematic gains.

Humans naturally adapt to diverse environments by learning underlying rules across worlds with different dynamics, observations, and reward structures. In contrast, existing agents typically demonstrate improvements via self-evolving within a single domain, implicitly assuming a fixed environment distribution. Cross-environment learning has remained largely unmeasured: there is no standard collection of controllable, heterogeneous environments, nor a unified way to represent how agents learn. We address these gaps in two steps. First, we propose AutoEnv, an automated framework that treats environments as factorizable distributions over transitions, observations, and rewards, enabling low-cost (4.12 USD on average) generation of heterogeneous worlds. Using AutoEnv, we construct AutoEnv-36, a dataset of 36 environments with 358 validated levels, on which seven language models achieve 12-49% normalized reward, demonstrating the challenge of AutoEnv-36. Second, we formalize agent learning as a component-centric process driven by three stages of Selection, Optimization, and Evaluation applied to an improvable agent component. Using this formulation, we design eight learning methods and evaluate them on AutoEnv-36. Empirically, the gain of any single learning method quickly decrease as the number of environments increases, revealing that fixed learning methods do not scale across heterogeneous environments. Environment-adaptive selection of learning methods substantially improves performance but exhibits diminishing returns as the method space expands. These results highlight both the necessity and the current limitations of agent learning for scalable cross-environment generalization, and position AutoEnv and AutoEnv-36 as a testbed for studying cross-environment agent learning. The code is avaiable at https://github.com/FoundationAgents/AutoEnv.

The high computational costs of large language models (LLMs) have led to a flurry of research on LLM compression, via methods such as quantization, sparsification, or structured pruning. A new frontier in this area is given by dynamic, non-uniform compression methods, which adjust the compression levels (e.g., sparsity) per-block or even per-layer in order to minimize accuracy loss, while guaranteeing a global compression threshold. Yet, current methods rely on heuristics for identifying the "importance" of a given layer towards the loss, based on assumptions such as error monotonicity, i.e. that the end-to-end model compression error is proportional to the sum of layer-wise errors. In this paper, we revisit this area, and propose a new and general approach for dynamic compression that is provably optimal in a given input range. We begin from the motivating observation that, in general, error monotonicity does not hold for LLMs: compressed models with lower sum of per-layer errors can perform worse than models with higher error sums. To address this, we propose a new general evolutionary framework for dynamic LLM compression called EvoPress, which has provable convergence, and low sample and evaluation complexity. We show that these theoretical guarantees lead to highly competitive practical performance for dynamic compression of Llama, Mistral and Phi models. Via EvoPress, we set new state-of-the-art results across all compression approaches: structural pruning (block/layer dropping), unstructured sparsity, as well as quantization with dynamic bitwidths. Our code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/EvoPress.

Performance of machine learning algorithms depends critically on identifying a good set of hyperparameters. While recent approaches use Bayesian optimization to adaptively select configurations, we focus on speeding up random search through adaptive resource allocation and early-stopping. We formulate hyperparameter optimization as a pure-exploration non-stochastic infinite-armed bandit problem where a predefined resource like iterations, data samples, or features is allocated to randomly sampled configurations. We introduce a novel algorithm, Hyperband, for this framework and analyze its theoretical properties, providing several desirable guarantees. Furthermore, we compare Hyperband with popular Bayesian optimization methods on a suite of hyperparameter optimization problems. We observe that Hyperband can provide over an order-of-magnitude speedup over our competitor set on a variety of deep-learning and kernel-based learning problems.

During language model decoding, it is known that using higher temperature sampling gives more creative responses, while lower temperatures are more factually accurate. However, such models are commonly applied to general instruction following, which involves both creative and fact seeking tasks, using a single fixed temperature across all examples and tokens. In this work, we introduce Adaptive Decoding, a layer added to the model to select the sampling temperature dynamically at inference time, at either the token or example level, in order to optimize performance. To learn its parameters we introduce Latent Preference Optimization (LPO) a general approach to train discrete latent variables such as choices of temperature. Our method outperforms all fixed decoding temperatures across a range of tasks that require different temperatures, including UltraFeedback, Creative Story Writing, and GSM8K.

Previous raw image-based low-light image enhancement methods predominantly relied on feed-forward neural networks to learn deterministic mappings from low-light to normally-exposed images. However, they failed to capture critical distribution information, leading to visually undesirable results. This work addresses the issue by seamlessly integrating a diffusion model with a physics-based exposure model. Different from a vanilla diffusion model that has to perform Gaussian denoising, with the injected physics-based exposure model, our restoration process can directly start from a noisy image instead of pure noise. As such, our method obtains significantly improved performance and reduced inference time compared with vanilla diffusion models. To make full use of the advantages of different intermediate steps, we further propose an adaptive residual layer that effectively screens out the side-effect in the iterative refinement when the intermediate results have been already well-exposed. The proposed framework can work with both real-paired datasets, SOTA noise models, and different backbone networks. Note that, the proposed framework is compatible with real-paired datasets, real/synthetic noise models, and different backbone networks. We evaluate the proposed method on various public benchmarks, achieving promising results with consistent improvements using different exposure models and backbones. Besides, the proposed method achieves better generalization capacity for unseen amplifying ratios and better performance than a larger feedforward neural model when few parameters are adopted.

Pruning is a promising approach to compress complex deep learning models in order to deploy them on resource-constrained edge devices. However, many existing pruning solutions are based on unstructured pruning, which yields models that cannot efficiently run on commodity hardware and require users to manually explore and tune the pruning process, which is time-consuming and often leads to sub-optimal results. To address these limitations, this paper presents an adaptive, activation-based, structured pruning approach to automatically and efficiently generate small, accurate, and hardware-efficient models that meet user requirements. First, it proposes iterative structured pruning using activation-based attention feature maps to effectively identify and prune unimportant filters. Then, it proposes adaptive pruning policies for automatically meeting the pruning objectives of accuracy-critical, memory-constrained, and latency-sensitive tasks. A comprehensive evaluation shows that the proposed method can substantially outperform the state-of-the-art structured pruning works on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. For example, on ResNet-56 with CIFAR-10, without any accuracy drop, our method achieves the largest parameter reduction (79.11%), outperforming the related works by 22.81% to 66.07%, and the largest FLOPs reduction (70.13%), outperforming the related works by 14.13% to 26.53%.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

Personalizing visual generative models to meet specific user needs has gained increasing attention, yet current methods like Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) remain impractical due to their demand for task-specific data and lengthy optimization. While a few hypernetwork-based approaches attempt to predict adaptation weights directly, they struggle to map fine-grained user prompts to complex LoRA distributions, limiting their practical applicability. To bridge this gap, we propose LoFA, a general framework that efficiently predicts personalized priors for fast model adaptation. We first identify a key property of LoRA: structured distribution patterns emerge in the relative changes between LoRA and base model parameters. Building on this, we design a two-stage hypernetwork: first predicting relative distribution patterns that capture key adaptation regions, then using these to guide final LoRA weight prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method consistently predicts high-quality personalized priors within seconds, across multiple tasks and user prompts, even outperforming conventional LoRA that requires hours of processing. Project page: https://jaeger416.github.io/lofa/.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

Training deep neural networks requires intricate initialization and careful selection of learning rates. The emergence of stochastic gradient optimization methods that use adaptive learning rates based on squared past gradients, e.g., AdaGrad, AdaDelta, and Adam, eases the job slightly. However, such methods have also been proven problematic in recent studies with their own pitfalls including non-convergence issues and so on. Alternative variants have been proposed for enhancement, such as AMSGrad, AdaShift and AdaBound. In this work, we identify a new problem of adaptive learning rate methods that exhibits at the beginning of learning where Adam produces extremely large learning rates that inhibit the start of learning. We propose the Adaptive and Momental Bound (AdaMod) method to restrict the adaptive learning rates with adaptive and momental upper bounds. The dynamic learning rate bounds are based on the exponential moving averages of the adaptive learning rates themselves, which smooth out unexpected large learning rates and stabilize the training of deep neural networks. Our experiments verify that AdaMod eliminates the extremely large learning rates throughout the training and brings significant improvements especially on complex networks such as DenseNet and Transformer, compared to Adam. Our implementation is available at: https://github.com/lancopku/AdaMod

Learning from non-stationary data streams subject to concept drift requires models that can adapt on-the-fly while remaining resource-efficient. Existing adaptive ensemble methods often rely on coarse-grained adaptation mechanisms or simple voting schemes that fail to optimally leverage specialized knowledge. This paper introduces DriftMoE, an online Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture that addresses these limitations through a novel co-training framework. DriftMoE features a compact neural router that is co-trained alongside a pool of incremental Hoeffding tree experts. The key innovation lies in a symbiotic learning loop that enables expert specialization: the router selects the most suitable expert for prediction, the relevant experts update incrementally with the true label, and the router refines its parameters using a multi-hot correctness mask that reinforces every accurate expert. This feedback loop provides the router with a clear training signal while accelerating expert specialization. We evaluate DriftMoE's performance across nine state-of-the-art data stream learning benchmarks spanning abrupt, gradual, and real-world drifts testing two distinct configurations: one where experts specialize on data regimes (multi-class variant), and another where they focus on single-class specialization (task-based variant). Our results demonstrate that DriftMoE achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art stream learning adaptive ensembles, offering a principled and efficient approach to concept drift adaptation. All code, data pipelines, and reproducibility scripts are available in our public GitHub repository: https://github.com/miguel-ceadar/drift-moe.

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

We propose a Distributional Approach for addressing Controlled Text Generation from pre-trained Language Models (LMs). This approach permits to specify, in a single formal framework, both "pointwise" and "distributional" constraints over the target LM -- to our knowledge, the first model with such generality -- while minimizing KL divergence from the initial LM distribution. The optimal target distribution is then uniquely determined as an explicit EBM (Energy-Based Model) representation. From that optimal representation we then train a target controlled Autoregressive LM through an adaptive distributional variant of Policy Gradient. We conduct a first set of experiments over pointwise constraints showing the advantages of our approach over a set of baselines, in terms of obtaining a controlled LM balancing constraint satisfaction with divergence from the initial LM. We then perform experiments over distributional constraints, a unique feature of our approach, demonstrating its potential as a remedy to the problem of Bias in Language Models. Through an ablation study, we show the effectiveness of our adaptive technique for obtaining faster convergence. (Code available at https://github.com/naver/gdc)

Diffusion-based image generation models excel at producing high-quality synthetic content, but suffer from slow and computationally expensive inference. Prior work has attempted to mitigate this by caching and reusing features within diffusion transformers across inference steps. These methods, however, often rely on rigid heuristics that result in limited acceleration or poor generalization across architectures. We propose Evolutionary Caching to Accelerate Diffusion models (ECAD), a genetic algorithm that learns efficient, per-model, caching schedules forming a Pareto frontier, using only a small set of calibration prompts. ECAD requires no modifications to network parameters or reference images. It offers significant inference speedups, enables fine-grained control over the quality-latency trade-off, and adapts seamlessly to different diffusion models. Notably, ECAD's learned schedules can generalize effectively to resolutions and model variants not seen during calibration. We evaluate ECAD on PixArt-alpha, PixArt-Sigma, and FLUX-1.dev using multiple metrics (FID, CLIP, Image Reward) across diverse benchmarks (COCO, MJHQ-30k, PartiPrompts), demonstrating consistent improvements over previous approaches. On PixArt-alpha, ECAD identifies a schedule that outperforms the previous state-of-the-art method by 4.47 COCO FID while increasing inference speedup from 2.35x to 2.58x. Our results establish ECAD as a scalable and generalizable approach for accelerating diffusion inference. Our project website is available at https://aniaggarwal.github.io/ecad and our code is available at https://github.com/aniaggarwal/ecad.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a novel hierarchical formulation of normalizing flows to enable efficient fitting of flexible conditional distributions without overfitting and show how the normalizing flow formulation can be efficiently adapted to the censored setting. We experimentally validate the proposed approach on a synthetic dataset as well as four open medical datasets and an example of a common financial problem.

Stochastic optimization is one of the central problems in Machine Learning and Theoretical Computer Science. In the standard model, the algorithm is given a fixed distribution known in advance. In practice though, one may acquire at a cost extra information to make better decisions. In this paper, we study how to buy information for stochastic optimization and formulate this question as an online learning problem. Assuming the learner has an oracle for the original optimization problem, we design a 2-competitive deterministic algorithm and a e/(e-1)-competitive randomized algorithm for buying information. We show that this ratio is tight as the problem is equivalent to a robust generalization of the ski-rental problem, which we call super-martingale stopping. We also consider an adaptive setting where the learner can choose to buy information after taking some actions for the underlying optimization problem. We focus on the classic optimization problem, Min-Sum Set Cover, where the goal is to quickly find an action that covers a given request drawn from a known distribution. We provide an 8-competitive algorithm running in polynomial time that chooses actions and decides when to buy information about the underlying request.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

In recent years, the state-of-the-art in deep learning has been dominated by very large models that have been pre-trained on vast amounts of data. The paradigm is very simple: Investing more computational resources (optimally) leads to better performance, and even predictably so; neural scaling laws have been derived that accurately forecast the performance of a network for a desired level of compute. This leads to the notion of a "compute-optimal" model, i.e. a model that allocates a given level of compute during training optimally to maximise performance. In this work, we extend the concept of optimality by allowing for an "adaptive" model, i.e. a model that can change its shape during the course of training. By allowing the shape to adapt, we can optimally traverse between the underlying scaling laws, leading to a significant reduction in the required compute to reach a given target performance. We focus on vision tasks and the family of Vision Transformers, where the patch size as well as the width naturally serve as adaptive shape parameters. We demonstrate that, guided by scaling laws, we can design compute-optimal adaptive models that beat their "static" counterparts.

In machine learning, generalization against distribution shifts -- where deployment conditions diverge from the training scenarios -- is crucial, particularly in fields like climate modeling, biomedicine, and autonomous driving. The emergence of foundation models, distinguished by their extensive pretraining and task versatility, has led to an increased interest in their adaptability to distribution shifts. GPT-4V(ision) acts as the most advanced publicly accessible multimodal foundation model, with extensive applications across various domains, including anomaly detection, video understanding, image generation, and medical diagnosis. However, its robustness against data distributions remains largely underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study rigorously evaluates GPT-4V's adaptability and generalization capabilities in dynamic environments, benchmarking against prominent models like CLIP and LLaVA. We delve into GPT-4V's zero-shot generalization across 13 diverse datasets spanning natural, medical, and molecular domains. We further investigate its adaptability to controlled data perturbations and examine the efficacy of in-context learning as a tool to enhance its adaptation. Our findings delineate GPT-4V's capability boundaries in distribution shifts, shedding light on its strengths and limitations across various scenarios. Importantly, this investigation contributes to our understanding of how AI foundation models generalize to distribution shifts, offering pivotal insights into their adaptability and robustness. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/jameszhou-gl/gpt-4v-distribution-shift.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

There is a strong link between the general concept of intelligence and the ability to collect and use information. The theory of Bayes-adaptive exploration offers an attractive optimality framework for training machines to perform complex information gathering tasks. However, the computational complexity of the resulting optimal control problem has limited the diffusion of the theory to mainstream deep AI research. In this paper we exploit the inherent mathematical structure of Bayes-adaptive problems in order to dramatically simplify the problem by making the reward structure denser while simultaneously decoupling the learning of exploitation and exploration policies. The key to this simplification comes from the novel concept of cross-value (i.e. the value of being in an environment while acting optimally according to another), which we use to quantify the value of currently available information. This results in a new denser reward structure that "cashes in" all future rewards that can be predicted from the current information state. In a set of experiments we show that the approach makes it possible to learn challenging information gathering tasks without the use of shaping and heuristic bonuses in situations where the standard RL algorithms fail.

We consider online learning problems in the realizable setting, where there is a zero-loss solution, and propose new Differentially Private (DP) algorithms that obtain near-optimal regret bounds. For the problem of online prediction from experts, we design new algorithms that obtain near-optimal regret {O} big( varepsilon^{-1} log^{1.5}{d} big) where d is the number of experts. This significantly improves over the best existing regret bounds for the DP non-realizable setting which are {O} big( varepsilon^{-1} minbig{d, T^{1/3}log dbig} big). We also develop an adaptive algorithm for the small-loss setting with regret O(L^starlog d + varepsilon^{-1} log^{1.5}{d}) where L^star is the total loss of the best expert. Additionally, we consider DP online convex optimization in the realizable setting and propose an algorithm with near-optimal regret O big(varepsilon^{-1} d^{1.5} big), as well as an algorithm for the smooth case with regret O big( varepsilon^{-2/3} (dT)^{1/3} big), both significantly improving over existing bounds in the non-realizable regime.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

In online algorithm selection (OAS), instances of an algorithmic problem class are presented to an agent one after another, and the agent has to quickly select a presumably best algorithm from a fixed set of candidate algorithms. For decision problems such as satisfiability (SAT), quality typically refers to the algorithm's runtime. As the latter is known to exhibit a heavy-tail distribution, an algorithm is normally stopped when exceeding a predefined upper time limit. As a consequence, machine learning methods used to optimize an algorithm selection strategy in a data-driven manner need to deal with right-censored samples, a problem that has received little attention in the literature so far. In this work, we revisit multi-armed bandit algorithms for OAS and discuss their capability of dealing with the problem. Moreover, we adapt them towards runtime-oriented losses, allowing for partially censored data while keeping a space- and time-complexity independent of the time horizon. In an extensive experimental evaluation on an adapted version of the ASlib benchmark, we demonstrate that theoretically well-founded methods based on Thompson sampling perform specifically strong and improve in comparison to existing methods.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

We study inference-time scaling for diffusion models, where the goal is to adapt a pre-trained model to new target distributions without retraining. Existing guidance-based methods are simple but introduce bias, while particle-based corrections suffer from weight degeneracy and high computational cost. We introduce DriftLite, a lightweight, training-free particle-based approach that steers the inference dynamics on the fly with provably optimal stability control. DriftLite exploits a previously unexplored degree of freedom in the Fokker-Planck equation between the drift and particle potential, and yields two practical instantiations: Variance- and Energy-Controlling Guidance (VCG/ECG) for approximating the optimal drift with minimal overhead. Across Gaussian mixture models, particle systems, and large-scale protein-ligand co-folding problems, DriftLite consistently reduces variance and improves sample quality over pure guidance and sequential Monte Carlo baselines. These results highlight a principled, efficient route toward scalable inference-time adaptation of diffusion models.

Computationally intensive decoding procedures--including search, reranking, and self-critique--can improve the quality of language model (LM) outputs in problems spanning code generation, numerical reasoning, and dialog. Existing work typically applies the same decoding procedure for every input to an LM. But not all inputs require the same amount of computation to process. Can we allocate decoding computation adaptively, using more resources to answer questions whose answers will be harder to compute? We present an approach that predicts the distribution of rewards given an input and computation budget, then allocates additional computation to inputs for which it is predicted to be most useful. We apply this approach in two decoding procedures: first, an adaptive best-of-k procedure that dynamically selects the number of samples to generate as input to a reranker; second, a routing procedure that dynamically responds to a query using a decoding procedure that is expensive but accurate, or one that is cheaper but less capable. Across a suite of programming, mathematics, and dialog tasks, we show that accurate computation-allocation procedures can be learned, and reduce computation by up to 50% at no cost to response quality, or improve quality by up to 10% at a fixed computational budget.

Continuous-valued Autoregressive (AR) image generation models have demonstrated notable superiority over their discrete-token counterparts, showcasing considerable reconstruction quality and higher generation fidelity. However, the computational demands of the autoregressive framework result in significant inference overhead. While speculative decoding has proven effective in accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs), their adaptation to continuous-valued visual autoregressive models remains unexplored. This work generalizes the speculative decoding algorithm from discrete tokens to continuous space. By analyzing the intrinsic properties of output distribution, we establish a tailored acceptance criterion for the diffusion distributions prevalent in such models. To overcome the inconsistency that occurred in speculative decoding output distributions, we introduce denoising trajectory alignment and token pre-filling methods. Additionally, we identify the hard-to-sample distribution in the rejection phase. To mitigate this issue, we propose a meticulous acceptance-rejection sampling method with a proper upper bound, thereby circumventing complex integration. Experimental results show that our continuous speculative decoding achieves a remarkable 2.33times speed-up on off-the-shelf models while maintaining the output distribution. Codes will be available at https://github.com/MarkXCloud/CSpD

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

We present a novel adaptive optimization algorithm for large-scale machine learning problems. Equipped with a low-cost estimate of local curvature and Lipschitz smoothness, our method dynamically adapts the search direction and step-size. The search direction contains gradient information preconditioned by a well-scaled diagonal preconditioning matrix that captures the local curvature information. Our methodology does not require the tedious task of learning rate tuning, as the learning rate is updated automatically without adding an extra hyperparameter. We provide convergence guarantees on a comprehensive collection of optimization problems, including convex, strongly convex, and nonconvex problems, in both deterministic and stochastic regimes. We also conduct an extensive empirical evaluation on standard machine learning problems, justifying our algorithm's versatility and demonstrating its strong performance compared to other start-of-the-art first-order and second-order methods.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Sampling is ubiquitous in machine learning methodologies. Due to the growth of large datasets and model complexity, we want to learn and adapt the sampling process while training a representation. Towards achieving this grand goal, a variety of sampling techniques have been proposed. However, most of them either use a fixed sampling scheme or adjust the sampling scheme based on simple heuristics. They cannot choose the best sample for model training in different stages. Inspired by "Think, Fast and Slow" (System 1 and System 2) in cognitive science, we propose a reward-guided sampling strategy called Adaptive Sample with Reward (ASR) to tackle this challenge. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work utilizing reinforcement learning (RL) to address the sampling problem in representation learning. Our approach optimally adjusts the sampling process to achieve optimal performance. We explore geographical relationships among samples by distance-based sampling to maximize overall cumulative reward. We apply ASR to the long-standing sampling problems in similarity-based loss functions. Empirical results in information retrieval and clustering demonstrate ASR's superb performance across different datasets. We also discuss an engrossing phenomenon which we name as "ASR gravity well" in experiments.

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can carry greater risks than others in real-world long-tailed problems. For example, misclassifying patients (a tail class) as healthy individuals (a head class) entails far more serious consequences than the reverse scenario. To address this critical issue, we introduce Making Reliable and Flexible Decisions in Long-tailed Classification (RF-DLC), a novel framework aimed at reliable predictions in long-tailed problems. Leveraging Bayesian Decision Theory, we introduce an integrated gain to seamlessly combine long-tailed data distributions and the decision-making procedure. We further propose an efficient variational optimization strategy for the decision risk objective. Our method adapts readily to diverse utility matrices, which can be designed for specific tasks, ensuring its flexibility for different problem settings. In empirical evaluation, we design a new metric, False Head Rate, to quantify tail-sensitivity risk, along with comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world tasks, including large-scale image classification and uncertainty quantification, to demonstrate the reliability and flexibility of our method.

Reinforcement finetuning (RFT) has shown great potential for enhancing the mathematical reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but it is often sample- and compute-inefficient, requiring extensive training. In this work, we introduce AdaRFT (Adaptive Curriculum Reinforcement Finetuning), a method that significantly improves both the efficiency and final accuracy of RFT through adaptive curriculum learning. AdaRFT dynamically adjusts the difficulty of training problems based on the model's recent reward signals, ensuring that the model consistently trains on tasks that are challenging but solvable. This adaptive sampling strategy accelerates learning by maintaining an optimal difficulty range, avoiding wasted computation on problems that are too easy or too hard. AdaRFT requires only a lightweight extension to standard RFT algorithms like Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), without modifying the reward function or model architecture. Experiments on competition-level math datasets-including AMC, AIME, and IMO-style problems-demonstrate that AdaRFT significantly improves both training efficiency and reasoning performance. We evaluate AdaRFT across multiple data distributions and model sizes, showing that it reduces the number of training steps by up to 2x and improves accuracy by a considerable margin, offering a more scalable and effective RFT framework.

Foundation models (FMs) are pre-trained on large-scale datasets and then fine-tuned on a downstream task for a specific application. The most successful and most commonly used fine-tuning method is to update the pre-trained weights via a low-rank adaptation (LoRA). LoRA introduces new weight matrices that are usually initialized at random with a uniform rank distribution across model weights. Recent works focus on weight-driven initialization or learning of adaptive ranks during training. Both approaches have only been investigated in isolation, resulting in slow convergence or a uniform rank distribution, in turn leading to sub-optimal performance. We propose to enhance LoRA by initializing the new weights in a data-driven manner by computing singular value decomposition on minibatches of activation vectors. Then, we initialize the LoRA matrices with the obtained right-singular vectors and re-distribute ranks among all weight matrices to explain the maximal amount of variance and continue the standard LoRA fine-tuning procedure. This results in our new method Explained Variance Adaptation (EVA). We apply EVA to a variety of fine-tuning tasks ranging from language generation and understanding to image classification and reinforcement learning. EVA exhibits faster convergence than competitors and attains the highest average score across a multitude of tasks per domain.

We revisit the noisy binary search model of Karp and Kleinberg, in which we have n coins with unknown probabilities p_i that we can flip. The coins are sorted by increasing p_i, and we would like to find where the probability crosses (to within varepsilon) of a target value tau. This generalized the fixed-noise model of Burnashev and Zigangirov , in which p_i = 1{2} pm varepsilon, to a setting where coins near the target may be indistinguishable from it. Karp and Kleinberg showed that Theta(1{varepsilon^2} log n) samples are necessary and sufficient for this task. We produce a practical algorithm by solving two theoretical challenges: high-probability behavior and sharp constants. We give an algorithm that succeeds with probability 1-delta from \[ 1{C_{\tau, \varepsilon}} \cdot \left(\lg n + O(\log^{2/3} n \log^{1/3} 1{\delta} + \log 1{\delta})\right) \] samples, where C_{tau, varepsilon} is the optimal such constant achievable. For delta > n^{-o(1)} this is within 1 + o(1) of optimal, and for delta ll 1 it is the first bound within constant factors of optimal.

According to Algorithmic Information Theory (AIT) -- Intelligent representations compress data into the shortest possible program that can reconstruct its content, exhibiting low Kolmogorov Complexity (KC). In contrast, most visual representation learning systems use fixed-length representations for all inputs, ignoring variations in complexity or familiarity. Recent adaptive tokenization methods address this by allocating variable-length representations but typically require test-time search over multiple encodings to find the most predictive one. Inspired by Kolmogorov Complexity principles, we propose a single-pass adaptive tokenizer, KARL, which predicts the appropriate number of tokens for an image in a single forward pass, halting once its approximate KC is reached. The token count serves as a proxy for the minimum description length. KARL's training procedure closely resembles the Upside-Down Reinforcement Learning paradigm, as it learns to conditionally predict token halting based on a desired reconstruction quality. KARL matches the performance of recent adaptive tokenizers while operating in a single pass. We present scaling laws for KARL, analyzing the role of encoder/decoder size, continuous vs. discrete tokenization and more. Additionally, we offer a conceptual study drawing an analogy between Adaptive Image Tokenization and Algorithmic Information Theory, examining the predicted image complexity (KC) across axes such as structure vs. noise and in- vs. out-of-distribution familiarity -- revealing alignment with human intuition.

Diffusion models have demonstrated their powerful generative capability in many tasks, with great potential to serve as a paradigm for offline reinforcement learning. However, the quality of the diffusion model is limited by the insufficient diversity of training data, which hinders the performance of planning and the generalizability to new tasks. This paper introduces AdaptDiffuser, an evolutionary planning method with diffusion that can self-evolve to improve the diffusion model hence a better planner, not only for seen tasks but can also adapt to unseen tasks. AdaptDiffuser enables the generation of rich synthetic expert data for goal-conditioned tasks using guidance from reward gradients. It then selects high-quality data via a discriminator to finetune the diffusion model, which improves the generalization ability to unseen tasks. Empirical experiments on two benchmark environments and two carefully designed unseen tasks in KUKA industrial robot arm and Maze2D environments demonstrate the effectiveness of AdaptDiffuser. For example, AdaptDiffuser not only outperforms the previous art Diffuser by 20.8% on Maze2D and 7.5% on MuJoCo locomotion, but also adapts better to new tasks, e.g., KUKA pick-and-place, by 27.9% without requiring additional expert data. More visualization results and demo videos could be found on our project page.

Data-free quantization (DFQ) recovers the performance of quantized network (Q) without the original data, but generates the fake sample via a generator (G) by learning from full-precision network (P), which, however, is totally independent of Q, overlooking the adaptability of the knowledge from generated samples, i.e., informative or not to the learning process of Q, resulting into the overflow of generalization error. Building on this, several critical questions -- how to measure the sample adaptability to Q under varied bit-width scenarios? whether the largest adaptability is the best? how to generate the samples with adaptive adaptability to improve Q's generalization? To answer the above questions, in this paper, we propose an Adaptive Data-Free Quantization (AdaDFQ) method, which revisits DFQ from a zero-sum game perspective upon the sample adaptability between two players -- a generator and a quantized network. Following this viewpoint, we further define the disagreement and agreement samples to form two boundaries, where the margin is optimized to adaptively regulate the adaptability of generated samples to Q, so as to address the over-and-under fitting issues. Our AdaDFQ reveals: 1) the largest adaptability is NOT the best for sample generation to benefit Q's generalization; 2) the knowledge of the generated sample should not be informative to Q only, but also related to the category and distribution information of the training data for P. The theoretical and empirical analysis validate the advantages of AdaDFQ over the state-of-the-arts. Our code is available at https://github.com/hfutqian/AdaDFQ.

Large language models split into two families: reasoning-centric LLMs, which strengthen internal chain-of-thought reasoning but cannot invoke external tools, and agentic LLMs, which learn to interact with environments and leverage tools but often lag in deep reasoning. This divide arises from fundamentally different training objectives, leading to mismatched strengths and inefficiency on simple queries, where both families tend to overthink or over-call tools. In this work, we present Adaptive Agent Foundation Model (A^2FM), a unified framework that follows a route-then-align principle: the model first learns task-aware routing and then aligns mode-specific trajectories under a shared backbone. To address the inefficiency gap, we introduce a third mode-instant-that handles simple queries directly, preventing unnecessary reasoning or tool calls while complementing the agentic and reasoning modes. To jointly enhance accuracy and efficiency, we propose Adaptive Policy Optimization (APO), which enforces adaptive sampling across modes and applies a cost-regularized reward. On the 32B scale, A^2FM achieves 13.4% on BrowseComp, 70.4% on AIME25, and 16.7% on HLE, setting new SOTA among comparable models and performing competitively with frontier LLMs across agentic, reasoning, and general benchmarks. Notably, the adaptive execution achieves a cost of pass of only $0.00487 per correct answer-cutting cost by 45.2% relative to reasoning and 33.5% relative to agentic, thus delivering substantially higher cost efficiency while maintaining comparable accuracy.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

We introduce a differentiable estimator of range-partition entropy, a recent concept from computational geometry that enables algorithms to adapt to the "sortedness" of their input. While range-partition entropy provides strong guarantees in algorithm design, it has not yet been made accessible to deep learning. In this work, we (i) propose the first differentiable approximation of range-partition entropy, enabling its use as a trainable loss or regularizer; (ii) design EntropyNet, a neural module that restructures data into low-entropy forms to accelerate downstream instance-optimal algorithms; and (iii) extend this principle beyond geometry by applying entropy regularization directly to Transformer attention. Across tasks, we demonstrate that differentiable entropy improves efficiency without degrading correctness: in geometry, our method achieves up to 4.1times runtime speedups with negligible error (<0.2%); in deep learning, it induces structured attention patterns that yield 6% higher accuracy at 80% sparsity compared to L1 baselines. Our theoretical analysis provides approximation bounds for the estimator, and extensive ablations validate design choices. These results suggest that entropy-bounded computation is not only theoretically elegant but also a practical mechanism for adaptive learning, efficiency, and structured representation.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) improves the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) by allocating additional compute during inference. We conduct a structured survey of TTS methods and categorize them into sampling-based, search-based, and trajectory optimization strategies. We observe that reasoning-optimized models often produce less diverse outputs, which limits TTS effectiveness. To address this, we propose ADAPT (A Diversity Aware Prefix fine-Tuning), a lightweight method that applies prefix tuning with a diversity-focused data strategy. Experiments on mathematical reasoning tasks show that ADAPT reaches 80% accuracy using eight times less compute than strong baselines. Our findings highlight the essential role of generative diversity in maximizing TTS effectiveness.

We investigate the problem of stochastic, combinatorial multi-armed bandits where the learner only has access to bandit feedback and the reward function can be non-linear. We provide a general framework for adapting discrete offline approximation algorithms into sublinear alpha-regret methods that only require bandit feedback, achieving Oleft(T^2{3}log(T)^1{3}right) expected cumulative alpha-regret dependence on the horizon T. The framework only requires the offline algorithms to be robust to small errors in function evaluation. The adaptation procedure does not even require explicit knowledge of the offline approximation algorithm -- the offline algorithm can be used as black box subroutine. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework, the proposed framework is applied to multiple problems in submodular maximization, adapting approximation algorithms for cardinality and for knapsack constraints. The new CMAB algorithms for knapsack constraints outperform a full-bandit method developed for the adversarial setting in experiments with real-world data.

While prior research has proposed a plethora of methods that build neural classifiers robust against adversarial robustness, practitioners are still reluctant to adopt them due to their unacceptably severe clean accuracy penalties. This paper significantly alleviates this accuracy-robustness trade-off by mixing the output probabilities of a standard classifier and a robust classifier, where the standard network is optimized for clean accuracy and is not robust in general. We show that the robust base classifier's confidence difference for correct and incorrect examples is the key to this improvement. In addition to providing intuitions and empirical evidence, we theoretically certify the robustness of the mixed classifier under realistic assumptions. Furthermore, we adapt an adversarial input detector into a mixing network that adaptively adjusts the mixture of the two base models, further reducing the accuracy penalty of achieving robustness. The proposed flexible method, termed "adaptive smoothing", can work in conjunction with existing or even future methods that improve clean accuracy, robustness, or adversary detection. Our empirical evaluation considers strong attack methods, including AutoAttack and adaptive attack. On the CIFAR-100 dataset, our method achieves an 85.21% clean accuracy while maintaining a 38.72% ell_infty-AutoAttacked (epsilon = 8/255) accuracy, becoming the second most robust method on the RobustBench CIFAR-100 benchmark as of submission, while improving the clean accuracy by ten percentage points compared with all listed models. The code that implements our method is available at https://github.com/Bai-YT/AdaptiveSmoothing.