Daily Papers

Recent studies have shown promising results in the detection of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) using easily accessible Electroencephalogram (EEG) data which would help administer early and effective treatment for dementia patients. However, the reliability and practicality of such systems remains unclear. In this work, we investigate the potential limitations and challenges in developing a robust MCI detection method using two contrasting datasets: 1) CAUEEG, collected and annotated by expert neurologists in controlled settings and 2) GENEEG, a new dataset collected and annotated in general practice clinics, a setting where routine MCI diagnoses are typically made. We find that training on small datasets, as is done by most previous works, tends to produce high variance models that make overconfident predictions, and are unreliable in practice. Additionally, distribution shifts between datasets make cross-domain generalization challenging. Finally, we show that MCI detection using EEG may suffer from fundamental limitations because of the overlapping nature of feature distributions with control groups. We call for more effort in high-quality data collection in actionable settings (like general practice clinics) to make progress towards this salient goal of non-invasive MCI detection.

While Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs), such as LLaDA, present a promising paradigm for language modeling, there has been relatively little effort in aligning these models with human preferences via reinforcement learning. The challenge primarily arises from the high variance in Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO)-based likelihood estimates required for preference optimization. To address this issue, we propose Variance-Reduced Preference Optimization (VRPO), a framework that formally analyzes the variance of ELBO estimators and derives bounds on both the bias and variance of preference optimization gradients. Building on this theoretical foundation, we introduce unbiased variance reduction strategies, including optimal Monte Carlo budget allocation and antithetic sampling, that significantly improve the performance of MDM alignment. We demonstrate the effectiveness of VRPO by applying it to LLaDA, and the resulting model, LLaDA 1.5, outperforms its SFT-only predecessor consistently and significantly across mathematical (GSM8K +4.7), code (HumanEval +3.0, MBPP +1.8), and alignment benchmarks (IFEval +4.0, Arena-Hard +4.3). Furthermore, LLaDA 1.5 demonstrates a highly competitive mathematical performance compared to strong language MDMs and ARMs. Project page: https://ml-gsai.github.io/LLaDA-1.5-Demo/.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) generate intermediate reasoning traces before producing final answers, yielding strong gains on multi-step and mathematical tasks. Yet aligning LRMs with human preferences, a crucial prerequisite for model deployment, remains underexplored. The statistically correct objective for preference alignment requires marginalizing over reasoning traces, but this computation is intractable in practice. A common workaround optimizes a single sampled trajectory, which introduces substantial gradient variance from stochastic trace sampling. To address this challenge, we frame preference optimization for LRMs through the lens of the bias--variance trade-off and propose Bias--Variance Optimized Preference Optimization (BVPO), a simple, drop-in method that mixes two gradient estimators: a high-variance trace-based estimator and a low-variance empty-trace estimator obtained by disabling reasoning trace generation. Our theory shows that BVPO strictly reduces trace-induced variance for any nontrivial mixture, provides a closed-form choice of the mixing weight that minimizes mean-squared error relative to the true marginal gradient, and under standard smoothness and step-size conditions, tightens classical convergence bounds for stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, BVPO improves alignment over the best baseline by up to 7.8 points on AlpacaEval~2 and 6.8 points on Arena-Hard. Despite being trained only on general conversational data, BVPO also boosts reasoning performance for base models by up to 4.0 points on the average of six math reasoning benchmarks. These results identify variance from trace sampling as a key bottleneck and demonstrate that directly optimizing the bias--variance trade-off yields more stable training and stronger overall performance.

The ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate structured outputs, such as JSON, is crucial for their use in Compound AI Systems. However, evaluating and improving this capability remains challenging. In this work, we introduce StructuredRAG, a benchmark of six tasks designed to assess LLMs' proficiency in following response format instructions. We evaluate two state-of-the-art LLMs, Gemini 1.5 Pro and Llama 3 8B-instruct with 4-bit quantization using two distinct prompting strategies. We introduce these prompting strategies as f-String and Follow the Format (FF) prompting. Across 24 experiments, we find an average success rate of 82.55%. We further find a high variance in performance across tasks, models, and prompting strategies with success rates ranging from 0 to 100%. We find that Llama 3 8B-instruct often performs competitively with Gemini 1.5 Pro. We observe that task complexity significantly influences performance, with tasks involving lists or composite object outputs proving more challenging. Our findings highlight the need for further research into improving the reliability and consistency of structured output generation in LLMs. We have open-sourced our experimental code and results at github.com/weaviate/structured-rag.

Colloquially speaking, image generation models based upon diffusion processes are frequently said to exhibit "hallucinations," samples that could never occur in the training data. But where do such hallucinations come from? In this paper, we study a particular failure mode in diffusion models, which we term mode interpolation. Specifically, we find that diffusion models smoothly "interpolate" between nearby data modes in the training set, to generate samples that are completely outside the support of the original training distribution; this phenomenon leads diffusion models to generate artifacts that never existed in real data (i.e., hallucinations). We systematically study the reasons for, and the manifestation of this phenomenon. Through experiments on 1D and 2D Gaussians, we show how a discontinuous loss landscape in the diffusion model's decoder leads to a region where any smooth approximation will cause such hallucinations. Through experiments on artificial datasets with various shapes, we show how hallucination leads to the generation of combinations of shapes that never existed. Finally, we show that diffusion models in fact know when they go out of support and hallucinate. This is captured by the high variance in the trajectory of the generated sample towards the final few backward sampling process. Using a simple metric to capture this variance, we can remove over 95% of hallucinations at generation time while retaining 96% of in-support samples. We conclude our exploration by showing the implications of such hallucination (and its removal) on the collapse (and stabilization) of recursive training on synthetic data with experiments on MNIST and 2D Gaussians dataset. We release our code at https://github.com/locuslab/diffusion-model-hallucination.

Consistency Training (CT) has recently emerged as a promising alternative to diffusion models, achieving competitive performance in image generation tasks. However, non-distillation consistency training often suffers from high variance and instability, and analyzing and improving its training dynamics is an active area of research. In this work, we propose a novel CT training approach based on the Flow Matching framework. Our main contribution is a trained noise-coupling scheme inspired by the architecture of Variational Autoencoders (VAE). By training a data-dependent noise emission model implemented as an encoder architecture, our method can indirectly learn the geometry of the noise-to-data mapping, which is instead fixed by the choice of the forward process in classical CT. Empirical results across diverse image datasets show significant generative improvements, with our model outperforming baselines and achieving the state-of-the-art (SoTA) non-distillation CT FID on CIFAR-10, and attaining FID on par with SoTA on ImageNet at 64 times 64 resolution in 2-step generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/sony/vct .

Video generators are increasingly evaluated as potential world models, which requires them to encode and understand physical laws. We investigate their representation of a fundamental law: gravity. Out-of-the-box video generators consistently generate objects falling at an effectively slower acceleration. However, these physical tests are often confounded by ambiguous metric scale. We first investigate if observed physical errors are artifacts of these ambiguities (e.g., incorrect frame rate assumptions). We find that even temporal rescaling cannot correct the high-variance gravity artifacts. To rigorously isolate the underlying physical representation from these confounds, we introduce a unit-free, two-object protocol that tests the timing ratio t_1^2/t_2^2 = h_1/h_2, a relationship independent of g, focal length, and scale. This relative test reveals violations of Galileo's equivalence principle. We then demonstrate that this physical gap can be partially mitigated with targeted specialization. A lightweight low-rank adaptor fine-tuned on only 100 single-ball clips raises g_{eff} from 1.81,m/s^2 to 6.43,m/s^2 (reaching 65% of terrestrial gravity). This specialist adaptor also generalizes zero-shot to two-ball drops and inclined planes, offering initial evidence that specific physical laws can be corrected with minimal data.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has become a widely recognized paradigm to combine parametric memory with non-parametric memories. An RAG model consists of two serial connecting components (retriever and generator). A major challenge in end-to-end optimization of the RAG model is that marginalization over relevant passages (modeled as discrete latent variables) from a knowledge base is required. Traditional top-K marginalization and variational RAG (VRAG) suffer from biased or high-variance gradient estimates. In this paper, we propose and develop joint stochastic approximation (JSA) based end-to-end training of RAG, which is referred to as JSA-RAG. The JSA algorithm is a stochastic extension of the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm and is particularly powerful in estimating discrete latent variable models. Extensive experiments are conducted on five datasets for two tasks (open-domain question answering, knowledge-grounded dialogs) and show that JSA-RAG significantly outperforms both vanilla RAG and VRAG. Further analysis shows the efficacy of JSA-RAG from the perspectives of generation, retrieval, and low-variance gradient estimate.

Training data quality is one of the most important drivers of final model quality. In this work, we introduce a method for evaluating data integrity based on the assumption that low-quality input prompts result in high variance and low quality responses. This is achieved by measuring the rejected response quality and the reward gap between the chosen and rejected preference pair. Our method, Rejecting Instruction Preferences (RIP) can be used to filter prompts from existing training sets, or to make high quality synthetic datasets, yielding large performance gains across various benchmarks compared to unfiltered data. Using Llama 3.1-8B-Instruct, RIP improves AlpacaEval2 LC Win Rate by 9.4%, Arena-Hard by 8.7%, and WildBench by 9.9%. Using Llama 3.3-70B-Instruct, RIP improves Arena-Hard from 67.5 to 82.9, which is from 18th place to 6th overall in the leaderboard.

Expected Goals (xG) has emerged as a popular tool for evaluating finishing skill in soccer analytics. It involves comparing a player's cumulative xG with their actual goal output, where consistent overperformance indicates strong finishing ability. However, the assessment of finishing skill in soccer using xG remains contentious due to players' difficulty in consistently outperforming their cumulative xG. In this paper, we aim to address the limitations and nuances surrounding the evaluation of finishing skill using xG statistics. Specifically, we explore three hypotheses: (1) the deviation between actual and expected goals is an inadequate metric due to the high variance of shot outcomes and limited sample sizes, (2) the inclusion of all shots in cumulative xG calculation may be inappropriate, and (3) xG models contain biases arising from interdependencies in the data that affect skill measurement. We found that sustained overperformance of cumulative xG requires both high shot volumes and exceptional finishing, including all shot types can obscure the finishing ability of proficient strikers, and that there is a persistent bias that makes the actual and expected goals closer for excellent finishers than it really is. Overall, our analysis indicates that we need more nuanced quantitative approaches for investigating a player's finishing ability, which we achieved using a technique from AI fairness to learn an xG model that is calibrated for multiple subgroups of players. As a concrete use case, we show that (1) the standard biased xG model underestimates Messi's GAX by 17% and (2) Messi's GAX is 27% higher than the typical elite high-shot-volume attacker, indicating that Messi is even a more exceptional finisher than people commonly believed.

The lack of adversarial robustness has been recognized as an important issue for state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) models, e.g., deep neural networks (DNNs). Thereby, robustifying ML models against adversarial attacks is now a major focus of research. However, nearly all existing defense methods, particularly for robust training, made the white-box assumption that the defender has the access to the details of an ML model (or its surrogate alternatives if available), e.g., its architectures and parameters. Beyond existing works, in this paper we aim to address the problem of black-box defense: How to robustify a black-box model using just input queries and output feedback? Such a problem arises in practical scenarios, where the owner of the predictive model is reluctant to share model information in order to preserve privacy. To this end, we propose a general notion of defensive operation that can be applied to black-box models, and design it through the lens of denoised smoothing (DS), a first-order (FO) certified defense technique. To allow the design of merely using model queries, we further integrate DS with the zeroth-order (gradient-free) optimization. However, a direct implementation of zeroth-order (ZO) optimization suffers a high variance of gradient estimates, and thus leads to ineffective defense. To tackle this problem, we next propose to prepend an autoencoder (AE) to a given (black-box) model so that DS can be trained using variance-reduced ZO optimization. We term the eventual defense as ZO-AE-DS. In practice, we empirically show that ZO-AE- DS can achieve improved accuracy, certified robustness, and query complexity over existing baselines. And the effectiveness of our approach is justified under both image classification and image reconstruction tasks. Codes are available at https://github.com/damon-demon/Black-Box-Defense.

Text-to-image diffusion models have recently emerged at the forefront of image generation, powered by very large-scale unsupervised or weakly supervised text-to-image training datasets. Due to their unsupervised training, controlling their behavior in downstream tasks, such as maximizing human-perceived image quality, image-text alignment, or ethical image generation, is difficult. Recent works finetune diffusion models to downstream reward functions using vanilla reinforcement learning, notorious for the high variance of the gradient estimators. In this paper, we propose AlignProp, a method that aligns diffusion models to downstream reward functions using end-to-end backpropagation of the reward gradient through the denoising process. While naive implementation of such backpropagation would require prohibitive memory resources for storing the partial derivatives of modern text-to-image models, AlignProp finetunes low-rank adapter weight modules and uses gradient checkpointing, to render its memory usage viable. We test AlignProp in finetuning diffusion models to various objectives, such as image-text semantic alignment, aesthetics, compressibility and controllability of the number of objects present, as well as their combinations. We show AlignProp achieves higher rewards in fewer training steps than alternatives, while being conceptually simpler, making it a straightforward choice for optimizing diffusion models for differentiable reward functions of interest. Code and Visualization results are available at https://align-prop.github.io/.

Recent advances in transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks. However, their quadratic computational complexity concerning sequence length remains a significant bottleneck for processing long documents. As a result, many efforts like sparse attention and state space models have been proposed to improve the efficiency of LLMs over long sequences. Though effective, these approaches compromise the performance or introduce structural complexity. This calls for a simple yet efficient model that preserves the fundamental Transformer architecture. To this end, we introduce SWAT, which enables efficient long-context handling via Sliding Window Attention Training. This paper first attributes the inefficiency of Transformers to the attention sink phenomenon resulting from the high variance of softmax operation. Then, we replace softmax with the sigmoid function and utilize a balanced ALiBi and Rotary Position Embedding for efficient information compression and retention. Experiments demonstrate that SWAT achieves SOTA performance compared with state-of-the-art linear recurrent architectures on eight benchmarks. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SWAT-attention.

How do diffusion generative models convert pure noise into meaningful images? In a variety of pretrained diffusion models (including conditional latent space models like Stable Diffusion), we observe that the reverse diffusion process that underlies image generation has the following properties: (i) individual trajectories tend to be low-dimensional and resemble 2D `rotations'; (ii) high-variance scene features like layout tend to emerge earlier, while low-variance details tend to emerge later; and (iii) early perturbations tend to have a greater impact on image content than later perturbations. To understand these phenomena, we derive and study a closed-form solution to the probability flow ODE for a Gaussian distribution, which shows that the reverse diffusion state rotates towards a gradually-specified target on the image manifold. It also shows that generation involves first committing to an outline, and then to finer and finer details. We find that this solution accurately describes the initial phase of image generation for pretrained models, and can in principle be used to make image generation more efficient by skipping reverse diffusion steps. Finally, we use our solution to characterize the image manifold in Stable Diffusion. Our viewpoint reveals an unexpected similarity between generation by GANs and diffusion and provides a conceptual link between diffusion and image retrieval.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly advanced in reasoning tasks through reinforcement learning (RL) optimization, achieving impressive capabilities across various challenging benchmarks. However, our empirical analysis reveals a critical drawback: reasoning-oriented RL fine-tuning significantly increases the prevalence of hallucinations. We theoretically analyze the RL training dynamics, identifying high-variance gradient, entropy-induced randomness, and susceptibility to spurious local optima as key factors leading to hallucinations. To address this drawback, we propose Factuality-aware Step-wise Policy Optimization (FSPO), an innovative RL fine-tuning algorithm incorporating explicit factuality verification at each reasoning step. FSPO leverages automated verification against given evidence to dynamically adjust token-level advantage values, incentivizing factual correctness throughout the reasoning process. Experiments across mathematical reasoning and hallucination benchmarks using Qwen2.5 and Llama models demonstrate that FSPO effectively reduces hallucinations while enhancing reasoning accuracy, substantially improving both reliability and performance.

As large language models are integrated into society, robustness toward a suite of prompts is increasingly important to maintain reliability in a high-variance environment.Robustness evaluations must comprehensively encapsulate the various settings in which a user may invoke an intelligent system. This paper proposes ASSERT, Automated Safety Scenario Red Teaming, consisting of three methods -- semantically aligned augmentation, target bootstrapping, and adversarial knowledge injection. For robust safety evaluation, we apply these methods in the critical domain of AI safety to algorithmically generate a test suite of prompts covering diverse robustness settings -- semantic equivalence, related scenarios, and adversarial. We partition our prompts into four safety domains for a fine-grained analysis of how the domain affects model performance. Despite dedicated safeguards in existing state-of-the-art models, we find statistically significant performance differences of up to 11% in absolute classification accuracy among semantically related scenarios and error rates of up to 19% absolute error in zero-shot adversarial settings, raising concerns for users' physical safety.

Decentralized training of deep neural networks has attracted significant attention for its theoretically superior scalability over synchronous data-parallel methods like All-Reduce. However, realizing this potential in multi-node training is challenging due to the complex design space that involves communication topologies, computation patterns, and optimization algorithms. This paper identifies three key factors that can lead to speedups over All-Reduce training and constructs a runtime model to determine when, how, and to what degree decentralization can yield shorter per-iteration runtimes. Furthermore, to support the decentralized training of transformer-based models, we study a decentralized Adam algorithm that allows for overlapping communications and computations, prove its convergence, and propose an accumulation technique to mitigate the high variance caused by small local batch sizes. We deploy the proposed approach in clusters with up to 64 GPUs and demonstrate its practicality and advantages in both runtime and generalization performance under a fixed iteration budget.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) can exhibit impressive proficiency in isolated, short-term tasks, they often fail to maintain coherent performance over longer time horizons. In this paper, we present Vending-Bench, a simulated environment designed to specifically test an LLM-based agent's ability to manage a straightforward, long-running business scenario: operating a vending machine. Agents must balance inventories, place orders, set prices, and handle daily fees - tasks that are each simple but collectively, over long horizons (>20M tokens per run) stress an LLM's capacity for sustained, coherent decision-making. Our experiments reveal high variance in performance across multiple LLMs: Claude 3.5 Sonnet and o3-mini manage the machine well in most runs and turn a profit, but all models have runs that derail, either through misinterpreting delivery schedules, forgetting orders, or descending into tangential "meltdown" loops from which they rarely recover. We find no clear correlation between failures and the point at which the model's context window becomes full, suggesting that these breakdowns do not stem from memory limits. Apart from highlighting the high variance in performance over long time horizons, Vending-Bench also tests models' ability to acquire capital, a necessity in many hypothetical dangerous AI scenarios. We hope the benchmark can help in preparing for the advent of stronger AI systems.

Reinforcement learning (RL) plays an increasingly important role in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), yet stable and performant policy optimization remains challenging. Token-level importance ratios often exhibit high variance-a phenomenon exacerbated in Mixture-of-Experts models-leading to unstable updates. Existing group-based policy optimization methods, such as GSPO and GRPO, alleviate this problem via hard clipping, making it difficult to maintain both stability and effective learning. We propose Soft Adaptive Policy Optimization (SAPO), which replaces hard clipping with a smooth, temperature-controlled gate that adaptively attenuates off-policy updates while preserving useful learning signals. Compared with GSPO and GRPO, SAPO is both sequence-coherent and token-adaptive. Like GSPO, SAPO maintains sequence-level coherence, but its soft gating forms a continuous trust region that avoids the brittle hard clipping band used in GSPO. When a sequence contains a few highly off-policy tokens, GSPO suppresses all gradients for that sequence, whereas SAPO selectively down-weights only the offending tokens and preserves the learning signal from the near-on-policy ones, improving sample efficiency. Relative to GRPO, SAPO replaces hard token-level clipping with smooth, temperature-controlled scaling, enabling more informative and stable updates. Empirical results on mathematical reasoning benchmarks indicate that SAPO exhibits improved training stability and higher Pass@1 performance under comparable training budgets. Moreover, we employ SAPO to train the Qwen3-VL model series, demonstrating that SAPO yields consistent performance gains across diverse tasks and different model sizes. Overall, SAPO provides a more reliable, scalable, and effective optimization strategy for RL training of LLMs.

While 2D diffusion models generate realistic, high-detail images, 3D shape generation methods like Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) built on these 2D diffusion models produce cartoon-like, over-smoothed shapes. To help explain this discrepancy, we show that the image guidance used in Score Distillation can be understood as the velocity field of a 2D denoising generative process, up to the choice of a noise term. In particular, after a change of variables, SDS resembles a high-variance version of Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIM) with a differently-sampled noise term: SDS introduces noise i.i.d. randomly at each step, while DDIM infers it from the previous noise predictions. This excessive variance can lead to over-smoothing and unrealistic outputs. We show that a better noise approximation can be recovered by inverting DDIM in each SDS update step. This modification makes SDS's generative process for 2D images almost identical to DDIM. In 3D, it removes over-smoothing, preserves higher-frequency detail, and brings the generation quality closer to that of 2D samplers. Experimentally, our method achieves better or similar 3D generation quality compared to other state-of-the-art Score Distillation methods, all without training additional neural networks or multi-view supervision, and providing useful insights into relationship between 2D and 3D asset generation with diffusion models.

Peer reviewing is a central component in the scientific publishing process. We present the first public dataset of scientific peer reviews available for research purposes (PeerRead v1) providing an opportunity to study this important artifact. The dataset consists of 14.7K paper drafts and the corresponding accept/reject decisions in top-tier venues including ACL, NIPS and ICLR. The dataset also includes 10.7K textual peer reviews written by experts for a subset of the papers. We describe the data collection process and report interesting observed phenomena in the peer reviews. We also propose two novel NLP tasks based on this dataset and provide simple baseline models. In the first task, we show that simple models can predict whether a paper is accepted with up to 21% error reduction compared to the majority baseline. In the second task, we predict the numerical scores of review aspects and show that simple models can outperform the mean baseline for aspects with high variance such as 'originality' and 'impact'.

Modern enterprises generate vast streams of time series metrics when monitoring complex systems, known as observability data. Unlike conventional time series from domains such as weather, observability data are zero-inflated, highly stochastic, and exhibit minimal temporal structure. Despite their importance, observability datasets are underrepresented in public benchmarks due to proprietary restrictions. Existing datasets are often anonymized and normalized, removing scale information and limiting their use for tasks beyond forecasting, such as anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and multi-modal reasoning. To address this gap, we introduce TelecomTS, a large-scale observability dataset derived from a 5G telecommunications network. TelecomTS features heterogeneous, de-anonymized covariates with explicit scale information and supports a suite of downstream tasks, including anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and a question-answering benchmark requiring multi-modal reasoning. Benchmarking state-of-the-art time series, language, and reasoning models reveals that existing approaches struggle with the abrupt, noisy, and high-variance dynamics of observability data. Our experiments also underscore the importance of preserving covariates' absolute scale, emphasizing the need for foundation time series models that natively leverage scale information for practical observability applications.

With the success of deep neural networks, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) as a way of automatic model design has attracted wide attention. As training every child model from scratch is very time-consuming, recent works leverage weight-sharing to speed up the model evaluation procedure. These approaches greatly reduce computation by maintaining a single copy of weights on the super-net and share the weights among every child model. However, weight-sharing has no theoretical guarantee and its impact has not been well studied before. In this paper, we conduct comprehensive experiments to reveal the impact of weight-sharing: (1) The best-performing models from different runs or even from consecutive epochs within the same run have significant variance; (2) Even with high variance, we can extract valuable information from training the super-net with shared weights; (3) The interference between child models is a main factor that induces high variance; (4) Properly reducing the degree of weight sharing could effectively reduce variance and improve performance.

We propose Delta L Normalization, a simple yet effective loss aggregation method tailored to the characteristic of dynamic generation lengths in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). Recently, RLVR has demonstrated strong potential in improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but a major challenge lies in the large variability of response lengths during training, which leads to high gradient variance and unstable optimization. Although previous methods such as GRPO, DAPO, and Dr. GRPO introduce different loss normalization terms to address this issue, they either produce biased estimates or still suffer from high gradient variance. By analyzing the effect of varying lengths on policy loss both theoretically and empirically, we reformulate the problem as finding a minimum-variance unbiased estimator. Our proposed Delta L Normalization not only provides an unbiased estimate of the true policy loss but also minimizes gradient variance in theory. Extensive experiments show that it consistently achieves superior results across different model sizes, maximum lengths, and tasks. Our code will be made public at https://github.com/zerolllin/Delta-L-Normalization.

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

Storing open-source fine-tuned models separately introduces redundancy and increases response times in applications utilizing multiple models. Delta-parameter pruning (DPP), particularly the random drop and rescale (DARE) method proposed by Yu et al., addresses this by pruning the majority of delta parameters--the differences between fine-tuned and pre-trained model weights--while typically maintaining minimal performance loss. However, DARE fails when either the pruning rate or the magnitude of the delta parameters is large. We highlight two key reasons for this failure: (1) an excessively large rescaling factor as pruning rates increase, and (2) high mean and variance in the delta parameters. To push DARE's limits, we introduce DAREx (DARE the eXtreme), which features two algorithmic improvements: (1) DAREx-q, a rescaling factor modification that significantly boosts performance at high pruning rates (e.g., >30 % on COLA and SST2 for encoder models, with even greater gains in decoder models), and (2) DAREx-L2, which combines DARE with AdamR, an in-training method that applies appropriate delta regularization before DPP. We also demonstrate that DAREx-q can be seamlessly combined with vanilla parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques like LoRA and can facilitate structural DPP. Additionally, we revisit the application of importance-based pruning techniques within DPP, demonstrating that they outperform random-based methods when delta parameters are large. Through this comprehensive study, we develop a pipeline for selecting the most appropriate DPP method under various practical scenarios.

Current preference learning methods achieve high accuracy on standard benchmarks but exhibit significant performance degradation when objective quality signals are removed. We introduce WritingPreferenceBench, a dataset of 1,800 human-annotated preference pairs (1,200 English, 600 Chinese) across 8 creative writing genres, where responses are matched for objective correctness, factual accuracy, and length. On this benchmark, sequence-based reward models--the standard architecture for RLHF--achieve only 52.7% mean accuracy, while zero-shot language model judges perform at 53.9%. In contrast, generative reward models that produce explicit reasoning chains achieve 81.8% accuracy. We observe high within-model variance across genres: individual models range from 18.2% to 81.8% accuracy across different writing categories, with standard deviations averaging 10.1%. This variance persists regardless of model scale, with 27B parameter models showing no consistent improvement over 8B variants. Our results suggest that current RLHF methods primarily learn to detect objective errors rather than capture subjective quality preferences (e.g., creativity, stylistic flair, and emotional resonance), and that successful preference modeling may require intermediate reasoning representations rather than direct classification.

Prior work has shown that presupposition in generated questions can introduce unverified assumptions, leading to inconsistencies in claim verification. Additionally, prompt sensitivity remains a significant challenge for large language models (LLMs), resulting in performance variance as high as 3-6%. While recent advancements have reduced this gap, our study demonstrates that prompt sensitivity remains a persistent issue. To address this, we propose a structured and robust claim verification framework that reasons through presupposition-free, decomposed questions. Extensive experiments across multiple prompts, datasets, and LLMs reveal that even state-of-the-art models remain susceptible to prompt variance and presupposition. Our method consistently mitigates these issues, achieving up to a 2-5% improvement.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) are a class of generative models which have recently been shown to produce excellent samples. We show that with a few simple modifications, DDPMs can also achieve competitive log-likelihoods while maintaining high sample quality. Additionally, we find that learning variances of the reverse diffusion process allows sampling with an order of magnitude fewer forward passes with a negligible difference in sample quality, which is important for the practical deployment of these models. We additionally use precision and recall to compare how well DDPMs and GANs cover the target distribution. Finally, we show that the sample quality and likelihood of these models scale smoothly with model capacity and training compute, making them easily scalable. We release our code at https://github.com/openai/improved-diffusion

Large multimodal reasoning models have achieved rapid progress, but their advancement is constrained by two major limitations: the absence of open, large-scale, high-quality long chain-of-thought (CoT) data, and the instability of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in post-training. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), the standard framework for RL fine-tuning, is prone to gradient vanishing when reward variance is low, which weakens optimization signals and impairs convergence. This work makes three contributions: (1) We propose Variance-Aware Sampling (VAS), a data selection strategy guided by Variance Promotion Score (VPS) that combines outcome variance and trajectory diversity to promote reward variance and stabilize policy optimization. (2) We release large-scale, carefully curated resources containing ~1.6M long CoT cold-start data and ~15k RL QA pairs, designed to ensure quality, difficulty, and diversity, along with a fully reproducible end-to-end training codebase. (3) We open-source a family of multimodal reasoning models in multiple scales, establishing standardized baselines for the community. Experiments across mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both the curated data and the proposed VAS. Comprehensive ablation studies and analyses provide further insight into the contributions of each component. In addition, we theoretically establish that reward variance lower-bounds the expected policy gradient magnitude, with VAS serving as a practical mechanism to realize this guarantee. Our code, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/LengSicong/MMR1.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in code understanding and generation; however, their effectiveness on non-code Software Engineering (SE) tasks remains underexplored. We present the first comprehensive benchmark, which we name `Software Engineering Language Understanding' (SELU), for evaluating LLMs on 17 non-code tasks, spanning from identifying whether a requirement is functional or non-functional to estimating the effort and complexity of backlog items. SELU covers classification, regression, Named Entity Recognition (NER), and Masked Language Modeling (MLM) targets, with data drawn from diverse sources such as code repositories, issue tracking systems, and developer forums. We fine-tune 22 open-source LLMs, prompt two proprietary alternatives, and train two baselines. Performance is measured using metrics such as F1-macro, SMAPE, F1-micro, and accuracy, and compared via the Bayesian signed-rank test. Our results show that moderate-scale decoder-only models consistently form a top-tier, exhibiting high mean performance and low across-task variance, while domain adaptation via code-focused pre-training might yield only modest improvements. These insights guide model selection for non-code SE workflows and highlight directions for expanding SELU to generative and design-oriented scenarios.

The increasing application of multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) across various sectors have spotlighted the essence of their output reliability and accuracy, particularly their ability to produce content grounded in factual information (e.g. common and domain-specific knowledge). In this work, we introduce SimpleVQA, the first comprehensive multi-modal benchmark to evaluate the factuality ability of MLLMs to answer natural language short questions. SimpleVQA is characterized by six key features: it covers multiple tasks and multiple scenarios, ensures high quality and challenging queries, maintains static and timeless reference answers, and is straightforward to evaluate. Our approach involves categorizing visual question-answering items into 9 different tasks around objective events or common knowledge and situating these within 9 topics. Rigorous quality control processes are implemented to guarantee high-quality, concise, and clear answers, facilitating evaluation with minimal variance via an LLM-as-a-judge scoring system. Using SimpleVQA, we perform a comprehensive assessment of leading 18 MLLMs and 8 text-only LLMs, delving into their image comprehension and text generation abilities by identifying and analyzing error cases.

Developing questions that are pedagogically sound, relevant, and promote learning is a challenging and time-consuming task for educators. Modern-day large language models (LLMs) generate high-quality content across multiple domains, potentially helping educators to develop high-quality questions. Automated educational question generation (AEQG) is important in scaling online education catering to a diverse student population. Past attempts at AEQG have shown limited abilities to generate questions at higher cognitive levels. In this study, we examine the ability of five state-of-the-art LLMs of different sizes to generate diverse and high-quality questions of different cognitive levels, as defined by Bloom's taxonomy. We use advanced prompting techniques with varying complexity for AEQG. We conducted expert and LLM-based evaluations to assess the linguistic and pedagogical relevance and quality of the questions. Our findings suggest that LLms can generate relevant and high-quality educational questions of different cognitive levels when prompted with adequate information, although there is a significant variance in the performance of the five LLms considered. We also show that automated evaluation is not on par with human evaluation.

Comprehensive evaluation of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has recently garnered widespread attention in the research community. However, we observe that existing benchmarks present several common barriers that make it difficult to measure the significant challenges that models face in the real world, including: 1) small data scale leads to a large performance variance; 2) reliance on model-based annotations results in restricted data quality; 3) insufficient task difficulty, especially caused by the limited image resolution. To tackle these issues, we introduce MME-RealWorld. Specifically, we collect more than 300K images from public datasets and the Internet, filtering 13,366 high-quality images for annotation. This involves the efforts of professional 25 annotators and 7 experts in MLLMs, contributing to 29,429 question-answer pairs that cover 43 subtasks across 5 real-world scenarios, extremely challenging even for humans. As far as we know, MME-RealWorld is the largest manually annotated benchmark to date, featuring the highest resolution and a targeted focus on real-world applications. We further conduct a thorough evaluation involving 28 prominent MLLMs, such as GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Our results show that even the most advanced models struggle with our benchmarks, where none of them reach 60% accuracy. The challenges of perceiving high-resolution images and understanding complex real-world scenarios remain urgent issues to be addressed. The data and evaluation code are released at https://mme-realworld.github.io/ .

While transformer models are widely believed to operate in high-dimensional hidden spaces, we show that attention outputs are confined to a surprisingly low-dimensional subspace, where about 60\% of the directions account for 99\% of the variance--a phenomenon that is induced by the attention output projection matrix and consistently observed across diverse model families and datasets. Critically, we find this low-rank structure as a fundamental cause of the prevalent dead feature problem in sparse dictionary learning, where it creates a mismatch between randomly initialized features and the intrinsic geometry of the activation space. Building on this insight, we propose a subspace-constrained training method for sparse autoencoders (SAEs), initializing feature directions into the active subspace of activations. Our approach reduces dead features from 87\% to below 1\% in Attention Output SAEs with 1M features, and can further extend to other sparse dictionary learning methods. Our findings provide both new insights into the geometry of attention and practical tools for improving sparse dictionary learning in large language models.

Benchmarks shape scientific conclusions about model capabilities and steer model development. This creates a feedback loop: stronger benchmarks drive better models, and better models demand more discriminative benchmarks. Ensuring benchmark reliability is therefore essential for trustworthy evaluation and meaningful progress. In this work, we study benchmark reliability from a distributional perspective and introduce benchmark harmony, which measures how uniformly a model's performance is distributed across the subdomains of a benchmark. We posit that high harmony is a desirable benchmark property, indicating that the aggregate metric reflects uniform competence across subdomains. Across 19 multiple-choice benchmarks and five model families, we map each benchmark onto a mean-variance plane of harmony computed across models, where high mean and low variance signal more reliable evaluation. Our analysis shows that less harmonious benchmarks can give misleading results, since overall accuracy may be disproportionately influenced by specific subdomains. For instance, ARC-Easy is overwhelmed by questions on Biological Concepts, overshadowing other critical subdomains such as Geography, Physics, Chemistry, and Environmental Science. By recommending that harmony should be reported alongside accuracy, we reframe evaluation from simple performance averages to a more robust, distributionally reliable measurement of performance.

We present the first evaluation harness that enables any out-of-the-box, local, Large Language Models (LLMs) to play full-press Diplomacy without fine-tuning or specialized training. Previous work required frontier LLMs, or fine-tuning, due to the high complexity and information density of Diplomacy's game state. Combined with the high variance of matches, these factors made Diplomacy prohibitive for study. In this work, we used data-driven iteration to optimize a textual game state representation such that a 24B model can reliably complete matches without any fine tuning. We develop tooling to facilitate hypothesis testing and statistical analysis, and we present case studies on persuasion, aggressive playstyles, and performance across a range of models. We conduct a variety of experiments across many popular LLMs, finding the larger models perform the best, but the smaller models still play adequately. We also introduce Critical State Analysis: an experimental protocol for rapidly iterating and analyzing key moments in a game at depth. Our harness democratizes the evaluation of strategic reasoning in LLMs by eliminating the need for fine-tuning, and it provides insights into how these capabilities emerge naturally from widely used LLMs. Our code is available in the supplement and will be open sourced.

The choice of embedding model is a crucial step in the design of Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Given the sheer volume of available options, identifying clusters of similar models streamlines this model selection process. Relying solely on benchmark performance scores only allows for a weak assessment of model similarity. Thus, in this study, we evaluate the similarity of embedding models within the context of RAG systems. Our assessment is two-fold: We use Centered Kernel Alignment to compare embeddings on a pair-wise level. Additionally, as it is especially pertinent to RAG systems, we evaluate the similarity of retrieval results between these models using Jaccard and rank similarity. We compare different families of embedding models, including proprietary ones, across five datasets from the popular Benchmark Information Retrieval (BEIR). Through our experiments we identify clusters of models corresponding to model families, but interestingly, also some inter-family clusters. Furthermore, our analysis of top-k retrieval similarity reveals high-variance at low k values. We also identify possible open-source alternatives to proprietary models, with Mistral exhibiting the highest similarity to OpenAI models.

The alignment of language models with human preferences is vital for their application in real-world tasks. The problem is formulated as optimizing the model's policy to maximize the expected reward that reflects human preferences with minimal deviation from the initial policy. While considered as a straightforward solution, reinforcement learning (RL) suffers from high variance in policy updates, which impedes efficient policy improvement. Recently, direct preference optimization (DPO) was proposed to directly optimize the policy from preference data. Though simple to implement, DPO is derived based on the optimal policy that is not assured to be achieved in practice, which undermines its convergence to the intended solution. In this paper, we propose efficient exact optimization (EXO) of the alignment objective. We prove that EXO is guaranteed to optimize in the same direction as the RL algorithms asymptotically for arbitary parametrization of the policy, while enables efficient optimization by circumventing the complexities associated with RL algorithms. We compare our method to DPO with both theoretical and empirical analyses, and further demonstrate the advantages of our method over existing approaches on realistic human preference data.

As large language models (LLMs) scale, the question is not only how large they become, but how much of their capacity is effectively utilized. Existing scaling laws relate model size to loss, yet overlook how components exploit their latent space. We study feed-forward networks (FFNs) and recast width selection as a spectral utilization problem. Using a lightweight diagnostic suite -- Hard Rank (participation ratio), Soft Rank (Shannon rank), Spectral Concentration, and the composite Spectral Utilization Index (SUI) -- we quantify how many latent directions are meaningfully activated across LLaMA, GPT-2, and nGPT families. Our key finding is an asymmetric spectral scaling law: soft rank follows an almost perfect power law with FFN width, while hard rank grows only sublinearly and with high variance. This asymmetry suggests that widening FFNs mostly adds low-energy tail directions, while dominant-mode subspaces saturate early. Moreover, at larger widths, variance further collapses into a narrow subspace, leaving much of the latent space under-utilized. These results recast FFN width selection as a principled trade-off between tail capacity and dominant-mode capacity, offering concrete guidance for inference-efficient LLM design.

Representations from large language models (LLMs) are known to be dominated by a small subset of dimensions with exceedingly high variance. Previous works have argued that although ablating these outlier dimensions in LLM representations hurts downstream performance, outlier dimensions are detrimental to the representational quality of embeddings. In this study, we investigate how fine-tuning impacts outlier dimensions and show that 1) outlier dimensions that occur in pre-training persist in fine-tuned models and 2) a single outlier dimension can complete downstream tasks with a minimal error rate. Our results suggest that outlier dimensions can encode crucial task-specific knowledge and that the value of a representation in a single outlier dimension drives downstream model decisions.

How can Transformers model and learn enumerative geometry? What is a robust procedure for using Transformers in abductive knowledge discovery within a mathematician-machine collaboration? In this work, we introduce a Transformer-based approach to computational enumerative geometry, specifically targeting the computation of psi-class intersection numbers on the moduli space of curves. By reformulating the problem as a continuous optimization task, we compute intersection numbers across a wide value range from 10^{-45} to 10^{45}. To capture the recursive nature inherent in these intersection numbers, we propose the Dynamic Range Activator (DRA), a new activation function that enhances the Transformer's ability to model recursive patterns and handle severe heteroscedasticity. Given precision requirements for computing the intersections, we quantify the uncertainty of the predictions using Conformal Prediction with a dynamic sliding window adaptive to the partitions of equivalent number of marked points. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no prior work on modeling recursive functions with such a high-variance and factorial growth. Beyond simply computing intersection numbers, we explore the enumerative "world-model" of Transformers. Our interpretability analysis reveals that the network is implicitly modeling the Virasoro constraints in a purely data-driven manner. Moreover, through abductive hypothesis testing, probing, and causal inference, we uncover evidence of an emergent internal representation of the the large-genus asymptotic of psi-class intersection numbers. These findings suggest that the network internalizes the parameters of the asymptotic closed-form and the polynomiality phenomenon of psi-class intersection numbers in a non-linear manner.

We address unsupervised discontinuous constituency parsing, where we observe a high variance in the performance of the only previous model. We propose to build an ensemble of different runs of the existing discontinuous parser by averaging the predicted trees, to stabilize and boost performance. To begin with, we provide comprehensive computational complexity analysis (in terms of P and NP-complete) for tree averaging under different setups of binarity and continuity. We then develop an efficient exact algorithm to tackle the task, which runs in a reasonable time for all samples in our experiments. Results on three datasets show our method outperforms all baselines in all metrics; we also provide in-depth analyses of our approach.

Recently, multimodal contrastive learning (MMCL) approaches, such as CLIP, have achieved a remarkable success in learning representations that are robust against distribution shift and generalize to new domains. Despite the empirical success, the mechanism behind learning such generalizable representations is not understood. In this work, we rigorously analyze this problem and uncover two mechanisms behind MMCL's robustness: intra-class contrasting, which allows the model to learn features with a high variance, and inter-class feature sharing, where annotated details in one class help learning other classes better. Both mechanisms prevent spurious features that are over-represented in the training data to overshadow the generalizable core features. This yields superior zero-shot classification accuracy under distribution shift. Furthermore, we theoretically demonstrate the benefits of using rich captions on robustness and explore the effect of annotating different types of details in the captions. We validate our theoretical findings through experiments, including a well-designed synthetic experiment and an experiment involving training CLIP models on MSCOCO/Conceptual Captions and evaluating them on shifted ImageNets.

We study Stochastic Gradient Descent with AdaGrad stepsizes: a popular adaptive (self-tuning) method for first-order stochastic optimization. Despite being well studied, existing analyses of this method suffer from various shortcomings: they either assume some knowledge of the problem parameters, impose strong global Lipschitz conditions, or fail to give bounds that hold with high probability. We provide a comprehensive analysis of this basic method without any of these limitations, in both the convex and non-convex (smooth) cases, that additionally supports a general ``affine variance'' noise model and provides sharp rates of convergence in both the low-noise and high-noise~regimes.

There often is a dilemma between ease of optimization and robust out-of-distribution (OoD) generalization. For instance, many OoD methods rely on penalty terms whose optimization is challenging. They are either too strong to optimize reliably or too weak to achieve their goals. We propose to initialize the networks with a rich representation containing a palette of potentially useful features, ready to be used by even simple models. On the one hand, a rich representation provides a good initialization for the optimizer. On the other hand, it also provides an inductive bias that helps OoD generalization. Such a representation is constructed with the Rich Feature Construction (RFC) algorithm, also called the Bonsai algorithm, which consists of a succession of training episodes. During discovery episodes, we craft a multi-objective optimization criterion and its associated datasets in a manner that prevents the network from using the features constructed in the previous iterations. During synthesis episodes, we use knowledge distillation to force the network to simultaneously represent all the previously discovered features. Initializing the networks with Bonsai representations consistently helps six OoD methods achieve top performance on ColoredMNIST benchmark. The same technique substantially outperforms comparable results on the Wilds Camelyon17 task, eliminates the high result variance that plagues other methods, and makes hyperparameter tuning and model selection more reliable.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have recently achieved leading performances in many generative tasks. However, the inherited iterative sampling process costs hinder their applications to text-to-speech deployment. Through the preliminary study on diffusion model parameterization, we find that previous gradient-based TTS models require hundreds or thousands of iterations to guarantee high sample quality, which poses a challenge for accelerating sampling. In this work, we propose ProDiff, on progressive fast diffusion model for high-quality text-to-speech. Unlike previous work estimating the gradient for data density, ProDiff parameterizes the denoising model by directly predicting clean data to avoid distinct quality degradation in accelerating sampling. To tackle the model convergence challenge with decreased diffusion iterations, ProDiff reduces the data variance in the target site via knowledge distillation. Specifically, the denoising model uses the generated mel-spectrogram from an N-step DDIM teacher as the training target and distills the behavior into a new model with N/2 steps. As such, it allows the TTS model to make sharp predictions and further reduces the sampling time by orders of magnitude. Our evaluation demonstrates that ProDiff needs only 2 iterations to synthesize high-fidelity mel-spectrograms, while it maintains sample quality and diversity competitive with state-of-the-art models using hundreds of steps. ProDiff enables a sampling speed of 24x faster than real-time on a single NVIDIA 2080Ti GPU, making diffusion models practically applicable to text-to-speech synthesis deployment for the first time. Our extensive ablation studies demonstrate that each design in ProDiff is effective, and we further show that ProDiff can be easily extended to the multi-speaker setting. Audio samples are available at https://ProDiff.github.io/.

High-level musical qualities (such as emotion) are often abstract, subjective, and hard to quantify. Given these difficulties, it is not easy to learn good feature representations with supervised learning techniques, either because of the insufficiency of labels, or the subjectiveness (and hence large variance) in human-annotated labels. In this paper, we present a framework that can learn high-level feature representations with a limited amount of data, by first modelling their corresponding quantifiable low-level attributes. We refer to our proposed framework as Music FaderNets, which is inspired by the fact that low-level attributes can be continuously manipulated by separate "sliding faders" through feature disentanglement and latent regularization techniques. High-level features are then inferred from the low-level representations through semi-supervised clustering using Gaussian Mixture Variational Autoencoders (GM-VAEs). Using arousal as an example of a high-level feature, we show that the "faders" of our model are disentangled and change linearly w.r.t. the modelled low-level attributes of the generated output music. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model successfully learns the intrinsic relationship between arousal and its corresponding low-level attributes (rhythm and note density), with only 1% of the training set being labelled. Finally, using the learnt high-level feature representations, we explore the application of our framework in style transfer tasks across different arousal states. The effectiveness of this approach is verified through a subjective listening test.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

In this paper, we present OtterHD-8B, an innovative multimodal model evolved from Fuyu-8B, specifically engineered to interpret high-resolution visual inputs with granular precision. Unlike conventional models that are constrained by fixed-size vision encoders, OtterHD-8B boasts the ability to handle flexible input dimensions, ensuring its versatility across various inference requirements. Alongside this model, we introduce MagnifierBench, an evaluation framework designed to scrutinize models' ability to discern minute details and spatial relationships of small objects. Our comparative analysis reveals that while current leading models falter on this benchmark, OtterHD-8B, particularly when directly processing high-resolution inputs, outperforms its counterparts by a substantial margin. The findings illuminate the structural variances in visual information processing among different models and the influence that the vision encoders' pre-training resolution disparities have on model effectiveness within such benchmarks. Our study highlights the critical role of flexibility and high-resolution input capabilities in large multimodal models and also exemplifies the potential inherent in the Fuyu architecture's simplicity for handling complex visual data.

Increasingly expensive training of ever larger models such as Vision Transfomers motivate reusing the vast library of already trained state-of-the-art networks. However, their latency, high computational costs and memory demands pose significant challenges for deployment, especially on resource-constrained hardware. While structured pruning methods can reduce these factors, they often require costly retraining, sometimes for up to hundreds of epochs, or even training from scratch to recover the lost accuracy resulting from the structural modifications. Maintaining the provided performance of trained models after structured pruning and thereby avoiding extensive retraining remains a challenge. To solve this, we introduce Variance-Based Pruning, a simple and structured one-shot pruning technique for efficiently compressing networks, with minimal finetuning. Our approach first gathers activation statistics, which are used to select neurons for pruning. Simultaneously the mean activations are integrated back into the model to preserve a high degree of performance. On ImageNet-1k recognition tasks, we demonstrate that directly after pruning DeiT-Base retains over 70% of its original performance and requires only 10 epochs of fine-tuning to regain 99% of the original accuracy while simultaneously reducing MACs by 35% and model size by 36%, thus speeding up the model by 1.44x.

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k_2=2k_1=0.2 h/Mpc by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

Post-training quantization (PTQ) of large language models (LLMs) holds the promise in reducing the prohibitive computational cost at inference time. Quantization of all weight, activation and key-value (KV) cache tensors to 4-bit without significantly degrading generalizability is challenging, due to the high quantization error caused by extreme outliers in activations. To tackle this problem, we propose ResQ, a PTQ method that pushes further the state-of-the-art. By means of principal component analysis (PCA), it identifies a low-rank subspace (in practice 1/8 of the hidden dimension) in which activation variances are highest, and keep the coefficients within this subspace in high precision, e.g. 8-bit, while quantizing the rest to 4-bit. Within each subspace, invariant random rotation is applied to further suppress outliers. We show that this is a provably optimal mixed precision quantization scheme that minimizes error. With the Llama and Qwen2.5 families of models, we demonstrate that ResQ outperforms recent uniform and mixed precision PTQ methods on a variety of benchmarks, achieving up to 33\% lower perplexity on Wikitext than the next best method SpinQuant, and upto 3\times speedup over 16-bit baseline. Code is available at https://github.com/utkarsh-dmx/project-resq.

Geospatial object segmentation, as a particular semantic segmentation task, always faces with larger-scale variation, larger intra-class variance of background, and foreground-background imbalance in the high spatial resolution (HSR) remote sensing imagery. However, general semantic segmentation methods mainly focus on scale variation in the natural scene, with inadequate consideration of the other two problems that usually happen in the large area earth observation scene. In this paper, we argue that the problems lie on the lack of foreground modeling and propose a foreground-aware relation network (FarSeg) from the perspectives of relation-based and optimization-based foreground modeling, to alleviate the above two problems. From perspective of relation, FarSeg enhances the discrimination of foreground features via foreground-correlated contexts associated by learning foreground-scene relation. Meanwhile, from perspective of optimization, a foreground-aware optimization is proposed to focus on foreground examples and hard examples of background during training for a balanced optimization. The experimental results obtained using a large scale dataset suggest that the proposed method is superior to the state-of-the-art general semantic segmentation methods and achieves a better trade-off between speed and accuracy. Code has been made available at: https://github.com/Z-Zheng/FarSeg.

We present an end-to-end neural network-based model for inferring an approximate 3D mesh representation of a human face from single camera input for AR applications. The relatively dense mesh model of 468 vertices is well-suited for face-based AR effects. The proposed model demonstrates super-realtime inference speed on mobile GPUs (100-1000+ FPS, depending on the device and model variant) and a high prediction quality that is comparable to the variance in manual annotations of the same image.

Video representation learning is an increasingly important topic in machine learning research. We present Video JEPA with Variance-Covariance Regularization (VJ-VCR): a joint-embedding predictive architecture for self-supervised video representation learning that employs variance and covariance regularization to avoid representation collapse. We show that hidden representations from our VJ-VCR contain abstract, high-level information about the input data. Specifically, they outperform representations obtained from a generative baseline on downstream tasks that require understanding of the underlying dynamics of moving objects in the videos. Additionally, we explore different ways to incorporate latent variables into the VJ-VCR framework that capture information about uncertainty in the future in non-deterministic settings.

Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-inspired models have been proposed to quantify the number of people migrating from one city to the other. Despite the advances made by these models, our ability to predict the number of commuters and reconstruct mobility networks remains limited. Here, we propose an alternative approach using machine learning and 22 urban indicators to predict the flow of people and reconstruct the intercity commuters network. Our results reveal that predictions based on machine learning algorithms and urban indicators can reconstruct the commuters network with 90.4% of accuracy and describe 77.6% of the variance observed in the flow of people between cities. We also identify essential features to recover the network structure and the urban indicators mostly related to commuting patterns. As previously reported, distance plays a significant role in commuting, but other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate, are also driven-forces for people to commute. We believe that our results shed new lights on the modeling of migration and reinforce the role of urban indicators on commuting patterns. Also, because link-prediction and network reconstruction are still open challenges in network science, our results have implications in other areas, like economics, social sciences, and biology, where node attributes can give us information about the existence of links connecting entities in the network.

Remote sensing object detection (RSOD) faces formidable challenges in complex visual environments. Aerial and satellite images inherently suffer from limitations such as low spatial resolution, sensor noise, blurred objects, low-light degradation, and partial occlusions. These degradation factors collectively compromise the feature discriminability in detection models, resulting in three key issues: (1) reduced contrast that hampers foreground-background separation, (2) structural discontinuities in edge representations, and (3) ambiguous feature responses caused by variations in illumination. These collectively weaken model robustness and deployment feasibility. To address these challenges, we propose LEGNet, a lightweight network that incorporates a novel edge-Gaussian aggregation (EGA) module specifically designed for low-quality remote sensing images. Our key innovation lies in the synergistic integration of Scharr operator-based edge priors with uncertainty-aware Gaussian modeling: (a) The orientation-aware Scharr filters preserve high-frequency edge details with rotational invariance; (b) The uncertainty-aware Gaussian layers probabilistically refine low-confidence features through variance estimation. This design enables precision enhancement while maintaining architectural simplicity. Comprehensive evaluations across four RSOD benchmarks (DOTA-v1.0, v1.5, DIOR-R, FAIR1M-v1.0) and a UAV-view dataset (VisDrone2019) demonstrate significant improvements. LEGNet achieves state-of-the-art performance across five benchmark datasets while ensuring computational efficiency, making it well-suited for deployment on resource-constrained edge devices in real-world remote sensing applications. The code is available at https://github.com/lwCVer/LEGNet.

Simulation-free methods for training continuous-time generative models construct probability paths that go between noise distributions and individual data samples. Recent works, such as Flow Matching, derived paths that are optimal for each data sample. However, these algorithms rely on independent data and noise samples, and do not exploit underlying structure in the data distribution for constructing probability paths. We propose Multisample Flow Matching, a more general framework that uses non-trivial couplings between data and noise samples while satisfying the correct marginal constraints. At very small overhead costs, this generalization allows us to (i) reduce gradient variance during training, (ii) obtain straighter flows for the learned vector field, which allows us to generate high-quality samples using fewer function evaluations, and (iii) obtain transport maps with lower cost in high dimensions, which has applications beyond generative modeling. Importantly, we do so in a completely simulation-free manner with a simple minimization objective. We show that our proposed methods improve sample consistency on downsampled ImageNet data sets, and lead to better low-cost sample generation.

In this work we examine the classification accuracy and robustness of a state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithm applied to the morphological classification of radio galaxies. We test if SSL with fewer labels can achieve test accuracies comparable to the supervised state-of-the-art and whether this holds when incorporating previously unseen data. We find that for the radio galaxy classification problem considered, SSL provides additional regularisation and outperforms the baseline test accuracy. However, in contrast to model performance metrics reported on computer science benchmarking data-sets, we find that improvement is limited to a narrow range of label volumes, with performance falling off rapidly at low label volumes. Additionally, we show that SSL does not improve model calibration, regardless of whether classification is improved. Moreover, we find that when different underlying catalogues drawn from the same radio survey are used to provide the labelled and unlabelled data-sets required for SSL, a significant drop in classification performance is observered, highlighting the difficulty of applying SSL techniques under dataset shift. We show that a class-imbalanced unlabelled data pool negatively affects performance through prior probability shift, which we suggest may explain this performance drop, and that using the Frechet Distance between labelled and unlabelled data-sets as a measure of data-set shift can provide a prediction of model performance, but that for typical radio galaxy data-sets with labelled sample volumes of O(1000), the sample variance associated with this technique is high and the technique is in general not sufficiently robust to replace a train-test cycle.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

The outcome of Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training strongly depends on weight initialization and variance control strategies. Although the importance of initial variance control has been well documented in neural networks in general, the literature on initialization and management of its growth during LLM pre-training, specifically, is somewhat sparse. In this paper, we introduce the Layer Index Rescaling (LIR) weight initialization scheme, and the Target Variance Rescaling (TVR) variance control strategy. Experiments on a 1B parameter LLaMA model demonstrate that better variance management using these techniques yields substantial improvements in downstream task performance (up to 4.6% on common pre-training benchmarks) and reduces extreme activation values, thus mitigating challenges associated with quantization and low-precision training. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bluorion-com/weight_rescaling.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

Autoregressive (AR) models are promising for image generation, yet continuous-token AR variants often trail latent diffusion and masked-generation models. The core issue is heterogeneous variance in VAE latents, which is amplified during AR decoding, especially under classifier-free guidance (CFG), and can cause variance collapse. We propose SphereAR to address this issue. Its core design is to constrain all AR inputs and outputs -- including after CFG -- to lie on a fixed-radius hypersphere (constant ell_2 norm), leveraging hyperspherical VAEs. Our theoretical analysis shows that hyperspherical constraint removes the scale component (the primary cause of variance collapse), thereby stabilizing AR decoding. Empirically, on ImageNet generation, SphereAR-H (943M) sets a new state of the art for AR models, achieving FID 1.34. Even at smaller scales, SphereAR-L (479M) reaches FID 1.54 and SphereAR-B (208M) reaches 1.92, matching or surpassing much larger baselines such as MAR-H (943M, 1.55) and VAR-d30 (2B, 1.92). To our knowledge, this is the first time a pure next-token AR image generator with raster order surpasses diffusion and masked-generation models at comparable parameter scales.

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

Training deep neural networks--and more recently, large models--demands efficient and scalable optimizers. Adaptive gradient algorithms like Adam, AdamW, and their variants have been central to this task. Despite the development of numerous variance reduction algorithms in the past decade aimed at accelerating stochastic optimization in both convex and nonconvex settings, variance reduction has not found widespread success in training deep neural networks or large language models. Consequently, it has remained a less favored approach in modern AI. In this paper, to unleash the power of variance reduction for efficient training of large models, we propose a unified optimization framework, MARS (Make vAriance Reduction Shine), which reconciles preconditioned gradient methods with variance reduction via a scaled stochastic recursive momentum technique. Within our framework, we introduce three instances of MARS that leverage preconditioned gradient updates based on AdamW, Lion, and Shampoo, respectively. We also draw a connection between our algorithms and existing optimizers. Experimental results on training GPT-2 models indicate that MARS consistently outperforms AdamW by a large margin.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently garnered significant attention for their innovative next-scale prediction paradigm, offering notable advantages in both inference efficiency and image quality compared to traditional multi-step autoregressive (AR) and diffusion models. However, despite their efficiency, VAR models often suffer from the diversity collapse i.e., a reduction in output variability, analogous to that observed in few-step distilled diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce DiverseVAR, a simple yet effective approach that restores the generative diversity of VAR models without requiring any additional training. Our analysis reveals the pivotal component of the feature map as a key factor governing diversity formation at early scales. By suppressing the pivotal component in the model input and amplifying it in the model output, DiverseVAR effectively unlocks the inherent generative potential of VAR models while preserving high-fidelity synthesis. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach substantially enhances generative diversity with only neglectable performance influences. Our code will be publicly released at https://github.com/wangtong627/DiverseVAR.

Deep neural networks are powerful predictors for a variety of tasks. However, they do not capture uncertainty directly. Using neural network ensembles to quantify uncertainty is competitive with approaches based on Bayesian neural networks while benefiting from better computational scalability. However, building ensembles of neural networks is a challenging task because, in addition to choosing the right neural architecture or hyperparameters for each member of the ensemble, there is an added cost of training each model. We propose AutoDEUQ, an automated approach for generating an ensemble of deep neural networks. Our approach leverages joint neural architecture and hyperparameter search to generate ensembles. We use the law of total variance to decompose the predictive variance of deep ensembles into aleatoric (data) and epistemic (model) uncertainties. We show that AutoDEUQ outperforms probabilistic backpropagation, Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, distribution-free ensembles, and hyper ensemble methods on a number of regression benchmarks.

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

Recent innovations on hardware (e.g. Nvidia A100) have motivated learning N:M structured sparsity masks from scratch for fast model inference. However, state-of-the-art learning recipes in this regime (e.g. SR-STE) are proposed for non-adaptive optimizers like momentum SGD, while incurring non-trivial accuracy drop for Adam-trained models like attention-based LLMs. In this paper, we first demonstrate such gap origins from poorly estimated second moment (i.e. variance) in Adam states given by the masked weights. We conjecture that learning N:M masks with Adam should take the critical regime of variance estimation into account. In light of this, we propose STEP, an Adam-aware recipe that learns N:M masks with two phases: first, STEP calculates a reliable variance estimate (precondition phase) and subsequently, the variance remains fixed and is used as a precondition to learn N:M masks (mask-learning phase). STEP automatically identifies the switching point of two phases by dynamically sampling variance changes over the training trajectory and testing the sample concentration. Empirically, we evaluate STEP and other baselines such as ASP and SR-STE on multiple tasks including CIFAR classification, machine translation and LLM fine-tuning (BERT-Base, GPT-2). We show STEP mitigates the accuracy drop of baseline recipes and is robust to aggressive structured sparsity ratios.

We present specialized Large Language Models for theoretical High-Energy Physics, obtained as 20 fine-tuned variants of the 8-billion parameter Llama-3.1 model. Each variant was trained on arXiv abstracts (through August 2024) from different combinations of hep-th, hep-ph and gr-qc. For a comparative study, we also trained models on datasets that contained abstracts from disparate fields such as the q-bio and cs categories. All models were fine-tuned using two distinct Low-Rank Adaptation fine-tuning approaches and varying dataset sizes, and outperformed the base model on hep-th abstract completion tasks. We compare performance against leading commercial LLMs (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek) and derive insights for further developing specialized language models for High-Energy Theoretical Physics.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.

The study emphasizes the challenge of finding the optimal trade-off between bias and variance, especially as hyperparameter optimization increases in complexity. Through empirical analysis, three hyperparameter tuning algorithms Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), Genetic Search, and Random Search are evaluated across regression and classification tasks. The results show that nonlinear models, with properly tuned hyperparameters, significantly outperform linear models. Interestingly, Random Search excelled in regression tasks, while TPE was more effective for classification tasks. This suggests that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, as different algorithms perform better depending on the task and model type. The findings underscore the importance of selecting the appropriate tuning method and highlight the computational challenges involved in optimizing machine learning models, particularly as search spaces expand.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or involve computationally expensive nested Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) loops. In contrast, the proposed approach leverages stochastic averaging within a slow-fast system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to estimate intermediate scores along a diffusion path without training or inner-loop MCMC. Two algorithms are developed under this framework: MultALMC, which uses multiscale annealed Langevin dynamics, and MultCDiff, based on multiscale controlled diffusions for the reverse-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both overdamped and underdamped variants are considered, with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the desired diffusion path. The framework is extended to handle heavy-tailed target distributions using Student's t-based noise models and tailored fast-process dynamics. Empirical results across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, including multimodal and high-dimensional distributions, demonstrate that the proposed methods are competitive with existing samplers in terms of accuracy and efficiency, without the need for learned models.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and promising performance. In this work, we present TTS-VAR, the first general test-time scaling framework for visual auto-regressive (VAR) models, modeling the generation process as a path searching problem. To dynamically balance computational efficiency with exploration capacity, we first introduce an adaptive descending batch size schedule throughout the causal generation process. Besides, inspired by VAR's hierarchical coarse-to-fine multi-scale generation, our framework integrates two key components: (i) At coarse scales, we observe that generated tokens are hard for evaluation, possibly leading to erroneous acceptance of inferior samples or rejection of superior samples. Noticing that the coarse scales contain sufficient structural information, we propose clustering-based diversity search. It preserves structural variety through semantic feature clustering, enabling later selection on samples with higher potential. (ii) In fine scales, resampling-based potential selection prioritizes promising candidates using potential scores, which are defined as reward functions incorporating multi-scale generation history. Experiments on the powerful VAR model Infinity show a notable 8.7% GenEval score improvement (from 0.69 to 0.75). Key insights reveal that early-stage structural features effectively influence final quality, and resampling efficacy varies across generation scales. Code is available at https://github.com/ali-vilab/TTS-VAR.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

Language models often show little to no improvement (i.e., "saturation") when trained via vanilla supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on data similar to what they saw in their training set (e.g., MATH). We introduce a new fine-tuning strategy, STAT, to train such a student model by using the metacognition ability of a stronger large language model (LLM) as the teacher. The teacher uses the task dataset to create a list of skills needed for the task, and then labels each data point with its required skills (Didolkar et al., 2024). By monitoring the student's answers, the teacher creates a Missing-Skill-Profile for the student, tracking how often they failed to apply each skill in their responses. We use this idea to build a modified training set in one of two ways. In STAT-Sel, the teacher uses an existing set of training examples but adaptively reweights them according to the Missing-Skill-Profile. In STAT-Syn, the teacher synthesizes additional examples involving missing skills. Across extensive experiments on Llama and Qwen models, our methods yield improvements of up to 7.5% on MATH, whereas SFT provides only limited gains. Furthermore, STAT enhances performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks (e.g., AIME24/25, AMC23, etc.) by an average of 4.6%. Crucially, we find that STAT is complementary to RL via GRPO (Shao et al., 2024): after the model is improved using STAT to address skill gaps, GRPO continues to add further gains. We conclude that skill-targeted adaptive training should broadly improve current training pipelines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/princeton-pli/STAT.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

This article addresses the challenge of modeling the amplitude of spatially indexed low frequency fluctuations (ALFF) in resting state functional MRI as a function of cortical structural features and a multi-task coactivation network in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. It proposes a generative model that integrates effects of spatially-varying inputs and a network-valued input using deep neural networks to capture complex non-linear and spatial associations with the output. The method models spatial smoothness, accounts for subject heterogeneity and complex associations between network and spatial images at different scales, enables accurate inference of each images effect on the output image, and allows prediction with uncertainty quantification via Monte Carlo dropout, contributing to one of the first Explainable AI (XAI) frameworks for heterogeneous imaging data. The model is highly scalable to high-resolution data without the heavy pre-processing or summarization often required by Bayesian methods. Empirical results demonstrate its strong performance compared to existing statistical and deep learning methods. We applied the XAI model to the ABCD data which revealed associations between cortical features and ALFF throughout the entire brain. Our model performed comparably to existing methods in predictive accuracy but provided superior uncertainty quantification and faster computation, demonstrating its effectiveness for large-scale neuroimaging analysis. Open-source software in Python for XAI is available.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Real-world data tends to follow a long-tailed distribution, where the class imbalance results in dominance of the head classes during training. In this paper, we propose a frustratingly simple but effective step-wise learning framework to gradually enhance the capability of the model in detecting all categories of long-tailed datasets. Specifically, we build smooth-tail data where the long-tailed distribution of categories decays smoothly to correct the bias towards head classes. We pre-train a model on the whole long-tailed data to preserve discriminability between all categories. We then fine-tune the class-agnostic modules of the pre-trained model on the head class dominant replay data to get a head class expert model with improved decision boundaries from all categories. Finally, we train a unified model on the tail class dominant replay data while transferring knowledge from the head class expert model to ensure accurate detection of all categories. Extensive experiments on long-tailed datasets LVIS v0.5 and LVIS v1.0 demonstrate the superior performance of our method, where we can improve the AP with ResNet-50 backbone from 27.0% to 30.3% AP, and especially for the rare categories from 15.5% to 24.9% AP. Our best model using ResNet-101 backbone can achieve 30.7% AP, which suppresses all existing detectors using the same backbone.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

The conventional recipe for maximizing model accuracy is to (1) train multiple models with various hyperparameters and (2) pick the individual model which performs best on a held-out validation set, discarding the remainder. In this paper, we revisit the second step of this procedure in the context of fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where fine-tuned models often appear to lie in a single low error basin. We show that averaging the weights of multiple models fine-tuned with different hyperparameter configurations often improves accuracy and robustness. Unlike a conventional ensemble, we may average many models without incurring any additional inference or memory costs -- we call the results "model soups." When fine-tuning large pre-trained models such as CLIP, ALIGN, and a ViT-G pre-trained on JFT, our soup recipe provides significant improvements over the best model in a hyperparameter sweep on ImageNet. The resulting ViT-G model, which attains 90.94% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, achieved a new state of the art. Furthermore, we show that the model soup approach extends to multiple image classification and natural language processing tasks, improves out-of-distribution performance, and improves zero-shot performance on new downstream tasks. Finally, we analytically relate the performance similarity of weight-averaging and logit-ensembling to flatness of the loss and confidence of the predictions, and validate this relation empirically. Code is available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/model-soups.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Collecting high-quality training examples for language model fine-tuning is expensive, with practical budgets limiting the amount of data that can be procured. We investigate whether example difficulty affects GRPO training effectiveness by comparing selection strategies (easy, medium, hard, random) across multiple models and reasoning tasks. Training on the hardest 10\% of examples (those where the base model fails most often) yields dramatic performance gains up to 47\%, while easy examples produce minimal improvements of 3-15\%. This occurs because GRPO requires outcome variance to generate learning signals; hard examples maintain mixed success/failure outcomes throughout training while easy examples quickly converge to consistent success, eliminating learning opportunities. Moreover, models trained on hard examples show superior out-of-distribution generalization, with only hard-trained models achieving meaningful gains on the AIME2025 benchmark. Our findings provide clear guidance: when budget-constrained, prioritize collecting and annotating examples where your base model struggles, as these drive nearly all learning value in GRPO fine-tuning

The proliferation of pretrained models, as a result of advancements in pretraining techniques, has led to the emergence of a vast zoo of publicly available models. Effectively utilizing these resources to obtain models with robust out-of-distribution generalization capabilities for downstream tasks has become a crucial area of research. Previous research has primarily focused on identifying the most powerful models within the model zoo, neglecting to fully leverage the diverse inductive biases contained within. This paper argues that the knowledge contained in weaker models is valuable and presents a method for leveraging the diversity within the model zoo to improve out-of-distribution generalization capabilities. Specifically, we investigate the behaviors of various pretrained models across different domains of downstream tasks by characterizing the variations in their encoded representations in terms of two dimensions: diversity shift and correlation shift. This characterization enables us to propose a new algorithm for integrating diverse pretrained models, not limited to the strongest models, in order to achieve enhanced out-of-distribution generalization performance. Our proposed method demonstrates state-of-the-art empirical results on a variety of datasets, thus validating the benefits of utilizing diverse knowledge.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

In this paper I investigate the effect of random seed selection on the accuracy when using popular deep learning architectures for computer vision. I scan a large amount of seeds (up to 10^4) on CIFAR 10 and I also scan fewer seeds on Imagenet using pre-trained models to investigate large scale datasets. The conclusions are that even if the variance is not very large, it is surprisingly easy to find an outlier that performs much better or much worse than the average.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

We study the problem of visualizing large-scale and high-dimensional data in a low-dimensional (typically 2D or 3D) space. Much success has been reported recently by techniques that first compute a similarity structure of the data points and then project them into a low-dimensional space with the structure preserved. These two steps suffer from considerable computational costs, preventing the state-of-the-art methods such as the t-SNE from scaling to large-scale and high-dimensional data (e.g., millions of data points and hundreds of dimensions). We propose the LargeVis, a technique that first constructs an accurately approximated K-nearest neighbor graph from the data and then layouts the graph in the low-dimensional space. Comparing to t-SNE, LargeVis significantly reduces the computational cost of the graph construction step and employs a principled probabilistic model for the visualization step, the objective of which can be effectively optimized through asynchronous stochastic gradient descent with a linear time complexity. The whole procedure thus easily scales to millions of high-dimensional data points. Experimental results on real-world data sets demonstrate that the LargeVis outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in both efficiency and effectiveness. The hyper-parameters of LargeVis are also much more stable over different data sets.

It is impossible today to pretend that the practice of machine learning is compatible with the idea that training and testing data follow the same distribution. Several authors have recently used ensemble techniques to show how scenarios involving multiple data distributions are best served by representations that are both richer than those obtained by regularizing for the best in-distribution performance, and richer than those obtained under the influence of the implicit sparsity bias of common stochastic gradient procedures. This contribution investigates the use of very high dropout rates instead of ensembles to obtain such rich representations. Although training a deep network from scratch using such dropout rates is virtually impossible, fine-tuning a large pre-trained model under such conditions is not only possible but also achieves out-of-distribution performances that exceed those of both ensembles and weight averaging methods such as model soups. This result has practical significance because the importance of the fine-tuning scenario has considerably grown in recent years. This result also provides interesting insights on the nature of rich representations and on the intrinsically linear nature of fine-tuning a large network using a comparatively small dataset.

We present a joint forecasting framework for time series prediction that contrasts with traditional direct or recursive methods. This framework achieves state-of-the-art performance for our designed foundation model, YingLong, and reveals a novel scaling effect: longer outputs significantly enhance model accuracy due to delayed chain-of-thought reasoning in our non-causal approach. YingLong is a non-causal, bidirectional attention encoder-only transformer trained through masked token recovery, aligning more effectively with language understanding tasks than with generation tasks. Additionally, we boost performance by tackling output variance with a multi-input ensemble. We release four foundation models ranging from 6M to 300M parameters, demonstrating superior results in zero-shot tasks on the ETT and Weather datasets. YingLong achieves more than 60% best performance. To ensure generalizability, we assessed the models using the GIFT-Eval benchmark, which comprises 23 time series datasets across 7 domains. Yinglong significantly outperformed the best time-series foundation models, end-to-end trained models by 14% and 44% in rank respectively.The pretrained 300M model is available at https://huggingface.co/qcw1314/YingLong_300m

Static word embeddings are ubiquitous in computational social science applications and contribute to practical decision-making in a variety of fields including law and healthcare. However, assessing the statistical uncertainty in downstream conclusions drawn from word embedding statistics has remained challenging. When using only point estimates for embeddings, researchers have no streamlined way of assessing the degree to which their model selection criteria or scientific conclusions are subject to noise due to sparsity in the underlying data used to generate the embeddings. We introduce a method to obtain approximate, easy-to-use, and scalable reconstruction error variance estimates for GloVe (Pennington et al., 2014), one of the most widely used word embedding models, using an analytical approximation to a multivariate normal model. To demonstrate the value of embeddings with variance (GloVe-V), we illustrate how our approach enables principled hypothesis testing in core word embedding tasks, such as comparing the similarity between different word pairs in vector space, assessing the performance of different models, and analyzing the relative degree of ethnic or gender bias in a corpus using different word lists.

Deep generative models are routinely used in generating samples from complex, high-dimensional distributions. Despite their apparent successes, their statistical properties are not well understood. A common assumption is that with enough training data and sufficiently large neural networks, deep generative model samples will have arbitrarily small errors in sampling from any continuous target distribution. We set up a unifying framework that debunks this belief. We demonstrate that broad classes of deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, are not universal generators. Under the predominant case of Gaussian latent variables, these models can only generate concentrated samples that exhibit light tails. Using tools from concentration of measure and convex geometry, we give analogous results for more general log-concave and strongly log-concave latent variable distributions. We extend our results to diffusion models via a reduction argument. We use the Gromov--Levy inequality to give similar guarantees when the latent variables lie on manifolds with positive Ricci curvature. These results shed light on the limited capacity of common deep generative models to handle heavy tails. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our work with simulations and financial data.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) models significantly reduce inference steps through the "next-scale" prediction paradigm. However, progressive multi-scale generation incurs substantial memory overhead due to cumulative KV caching, limiting practical deployment. We observe a scale-depth asymmetric dependency in VAR: early scales exhibit extreme sensitivity to network depth, while later scales remain robust to depth reduction. Inspired by this, we propose VARiant: by equidistant sampling, we select multiple subnets ranging from 16 to 2 layers from the original 30-layer VAR-d30 network. Early scales are processed by the full network, while later scales utilize subnet. Subnet and the full network share weights, enabling flexible depth adjustment within a single model. However, weight sharing between subnet and the entire network can lead to optimization conflicts. To address this, we propose a progressive training strategy that breaks through the Pareto frontier of generation quality for both subnets and the full network under fixed-ratio training, achieving joint optimality. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that, compared to the pretrained VAR-d30 (FID 1.95), VARiant-d16 and VARiant-d8 achieve nearly equivalent quality (FID 2.05/2.12) while reducing memory consumption by 40-65%. VARiant-d2 achieves 3.5 times speedup and 80% memory reduction at moderate quality cost (FID 2.97). In terms of deployment, VARiant's single-model architecture supports zero-cost runtime depth switching and provides flexible deployment options from high quality to extreme efficiency, catering to diverse application scenarios.

Robustness to natural distribution shifts has seen remarkable progress thanks to recent pre-training strategies combined with better fine-tuning methods. However, such fine-tuning assumes access to large amounts of labelled data, and the extent to which the observations hold when the amount of training data is not as high remains unknown. We address this gap by performing the first in-depth study of robustness to various natural distribution shifts in different low-shot regimes: spanning datasets, architectures, pre-trained initializations, and state-of-the-art robustness interventions. Most importantly, we find that there is no single model of choice that is often more robust than others, and existing interventions can fail to improve robustness on some datasets even if they do so in the full-shot regime. We hope that our work will motivate the community to focus on this problem of practical importance.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

A range of recent optimizers have emerged that approximate the same "matrix-whitening" transformation in various ways. In this work, we systematically deconstruct such optimizers, aiming to disentangle the key components that explain performance. Across tuned hyperparameters across the board, all flavors of matrix-whitening methods reliably outperform elementwise counterparts, such as Adam. Matrix-whitening is often related to spectral descent -- however, experiments reveal that performance gains are *not explained solely by accurate spectral normalization* -- particularly, SOAP displays the largest per-step gain, even though Muon more accurately descends along the steepest spectral descent direction. Instead, we argue that matrix-whitening serves two purposes, and the variance adaptation component of matrix-whitening is the overlooked ingredient explaining this performance gap. Experiments show that variance-adapted versions of optimizers consistently outperform their sign-descent counterparts, including an adaptive version of Muon. We further ablate variance adaptation strategies, finding that while lookahead style approximations are not as effective, low-rank variance estimators can effectively reduce memory costs without a performance loss.

This paper introduces an efficient fine-tuning method for large pre-trained models, offering strong in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance. Breaking away from traditional practices that need a multitude of fine-tuned models for averaging, our approach employs significantly fewer models to achieve final weights yet yield superior accuracy. Drawing from key insights in the weight space of fine-tuned weights, we uncover a strong link between the performance and proximity to the center of weight space. Based on this, we introduce a method that approximates a center-close weight using only two fine-tuned models, applicable during or after training. Our innovative layer-wise weight averaging technique surpasses state-of-the-art model methods such as Model Soup, utilizing only two fine-tuned models. This strategy can be aptly coined Model Stock, highlighting its reliance on selecting a minimal number of models to draw a more optimized-averaged model. We demonstrate the efficacy of Model Stock with fine-tuned models based upon pre-trained CLIP architectures, achieving remarkable performance on both ID and OOD tasks on the standard benchmarks, all while barely bringing extra computational demands. Our code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/naver-ai/model-stock.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting the volatility of three equities listed on India's national stock market (NSE), we propose multiple volatility models depending on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Glosten-Jagannathan-GARCH (GJR-GARCH), Exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH), and LSTM framework. Sector-wise stocks have been chosen in our study. The sectors which have been considered are banking, information technology (IT), and pharma. yahoo finance has been used to obtain stock price data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2021. Among the pulled-out records, the data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2020 have been taken for training, and data from 2021 have been chosen for testing our models. The performance of predicting the volatility of stocks of three sectors has been evaluated by implementing three different types of GARCH models as well as by the LSTM model are compared. It has been observed the LSTM performed better in predicting volatility in pharma over banking and IT sectors. In tandem, it was also observed that E-GARCH performed better in the case of the banking sector and for IT and pharma, GJR-GARCH performed better.

Foundation Models (FMs) trained on Electronic Health Records (EHRs) have achieved state-of-the-art results on numerous clinical prediction tasks. However, most existing EHR FMs have context windows of <1k tokens. This prevents them from modeling full patient EHRs which can exceed 10k's of events. Recent advancements in subquadratic long-context architectures (e.g., Mamba) offer a promising solution. However, their application to EHR data has not been well-studied. We address this gap by presenting the first systematic evaluation of the effect of context length on modeling EHR data. We find that longer context models improve predictive performance -- our Mamba-based model surpasses the prior state-of-the-art on 9/14 tasks on the EHRSHOT prediction benchmark. For clinical applications, however, model performance alone is insufficient -- robustness to the unique properties of EHR is crucial. Thus, we also evaluate models across three previously underexplored properties of EHR data: (1) the prevalence of "copy-forwarded" diagnoses which creates artificial repetition of tokens within EHR sequences; (2) the irregular time intervals between EHR events which can lead to a wide range of timespans within a context window; and (3) the natural increase in disease complexity over time which makes later tokens in the EHR harder to predict than earlier ones. Stratifying our EHRSHOT results, we find that higher levels of each property correlate negatively with model performance, but that longer context models are more robust to more extreme levels of these properties. Our work highlights the potential for using long-context architectures to model EHR data, and offers a case study for identifying new challenges in modeling sequential data motivated by domains outside of natural language. We release our models and code at: https://github.com/som-shahlab/long_context_clues

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.