Daily Papers

One of the key challenges in deploying RL to real-world applications is to adapt to variations of unknown environment contexts, such as changing terrains in robotic tasks and fluctuated bandwidth in congestion control. Existing works on adaptation to unknown environment contexts either assume the contexts are the same for the whole episode or assume the context variables are Markovian. However, in many real-world applications, the environment context usually stays stable for a stochastic period and then changes in an abrupt and unpredictable manner within an episode, resulting in a segment structure, which existing works fail to address. To leverage the segment structure of piecewise stable context in real-world applications, in this paper, we propose a \textbf{Segmented Context Belief Augmented Deep~(SeCBAD)} RL method. Our method can jointly infer the belief distribution over latent context with the posterior over segment length and perform more accurate belief context inference with observed data within the current context segment. The inferred belief context can be leveraged to augment the state, leading to a policy that can adapt to abrupt variations in context. We demonstrate empirically that SeCBAD can infer context segment length accurately and outperform existing methods on a toy grid world environment and Mujuco tasks with piecewise-stable context.

We investigate learning the equilibria in non-stationary multi-agent systems and address the challenges that differentiate multi-agent learning from single-agent learning. Specifically, we focus on games with bandit feedback, where testing an equilibrium can result in substantial regret even when the gap to be tested is small, and the existence of multiple optimal solutions (equilibria) in stationary games poses extra challenges. To overcome these obstacles, we propose a versatile black-box approach applicable to a broad spectrum of problems, such as general-sum games, potential games, and Markov games, when equipped with appropriate learning and testing oracles for stationary environments. Our algorithms can achieve Oleft(Delta^{1/4}T^{3/4}right) regret when the degree of nonstationarity, as measured by total variation Delta, is known, and Oleft(Delta^{1/5}T^{4/5}right) regret when Delta is unknown, where T is the number of rounds. Meanwhile, our algorithm inherits the favorable dependence on number of agents from the oracles. As a side contribution that may be independent of interest, we show how to test for various types of equilibria by a black-box reduction to single-agent learning, which includes Nash equilibria, correlated equilibria, and coarse correlated equilibria.

Machine learning has shown growing success in recent years. However, current machine learning systems are highly specialized, trained for particular problems or domains, and typically on a single narrow dataset. Human learning, on the other hand, is highly general and adaptable. Never-ending learning is a machine learning paradigm that aims to bridge this gap, with the goal of encouraging researchers to design machine learning systems that can learn to perform a wider variety of inter-related tasks in more complex environments. To date, there is no environment or testbed to facilitate the development and evaluation of never-ending learning systems. To this end, we propose the Jelly Bean World testbed. The Jelly Bean World allows experimentation over two-dimensional grid worlds which are filled with items and in which agents can navigate. This testbed provides environments that are sufficiently complex and where more generally intelligent algorithms ought to perform better than current state-of-the-art reinforcement learning approaches. It does so by producing non-stationary environments and facilitating experimentation with multi-task, multi-agent, multi-modal, and curriculum learning settings. We hope that this new freely-available software will prompt new research and interest in the development and evaluation of never-ending learning systems and more broadly, general intelligence systems.

The intrinsic difficulty in adapting deep learning models to non-stationary environments limits the applicability of neural networks to real-world tasks. This issue is critical in practical supervised learning settings, such as the ones in which a pre-trained model computes projections toward a latent space where different task predictors are sequentially learned over time. As a matter of fact, incrementally fine-tuning the whole model to better adapt to new tasks usually results in catastrophic forgetting, with decreasing performance over the past experiences and losing valuable knowledge from the pre-training stage. In this paper, we propose a novel strategy to make the fine-tuning procedure more effective, by avoiding to update the pre-trained part of the network and learning not only the usual classification head, but also a set of newly-introduced learnable parameters that are responsible for transforming the input data. This process allows the network to effectively leverage the pre-training knowledge and find a good trade-off between plasticity and stability with modest computational efforts, thus especially suitable for on-the-edge settings. Our experiments on four image classification problems in a continual learning setting confirm the quality of the proposed approach when compared to several fine-tuning procedures and to popular continual learning methods.

Action Quality Assessment (AQA) evaluates diverse skills but models struggle with non-stationary data. We propose Continual AQA (CAQA) to refine models using sparse new data. Feature replay preserves memory without storing raw inputs. However, the misalignment between static old features and the dynamically changing feature manifold causes severe catastrophic forgetting. To address this novel problem, we propose Manifold-Aligned Graph Regularization (MAGR), which first aligns deviated old features to the current feature manifold, ensuring representation consistency. It then constructs a graph jointly arranging old and new features aligned with quality scores. Experiments show MAGR outperforms recent strong baselines with up to 6.56%, 5.66%, 15.64%, and 9.05% correlation gains on the MTL-AQA, FineDiving, UNLV-Dive, and JDM-MSA split datasets, respectively. This validates MAGR for continual assessment challenges arising from non-stationary skill variations.

The realm of High-Frequency Trading (HFT) is characterized by rapid decision-making processes that capitalize on fleeting market inefficiencies. As the financial markets become increasingly competitive, there is a pressing need for innovative strategies that can adapt and evolve with changing market dynamics. Enter Reinforcement Learning (RL), a branch of machine learning where agents learn by interacting with their environment, making it an intriguing candidate for HFT applications. This paper dives deep into the integration of RL in statistical arbitrage strategies tailored for HFT scenarios. By leveraging the adaptive learning capabilities of RL, we explore its potential to unearth patterns and devise trading strategies that traditional methods might overlook. We delve into the intricate exploration-exploitation trade-offs inherent in RL and how they manifest in the volatile world of HFT. Furthermore, we confront the challenges of applying RL in non-stationary environments, typical of financial markets, and investigate methodologies to mitigate associated risks. Through extensive simulations and backtests, our research reveals that RL not only enhances the adaptability of trading strategies but also shows promise in improving profitability metrics and risk-adjusted returns. This paper, therefore, positions RL as a pivotal tool for the next generation of HFT-based statistical arbitrage, offering insights for both researchers and practitioners in the field.

Industrial recommender systems face the challenge of operating in non-stationary environments, where data distribution shifts arise from evolving user behaviors over time. To tackle this challenge, a common approach is to periodically re-train or incrementally update deployed deep models with newly observed data, resulting in a continual training process. However, the conventional learning paradigm of neural networks relies on iterative gradient-based updates with a small learning rate, making it slow for large recommendation models to adapt. In this paper, we introduce ReLoop2, a self-correcting learning loop that facilitates fast model adaptation in online recommender systems through responsive error compensation. Inspired by the slow-fast complementary learning system observed in human brains, we propose an error memory module that directly stores error samples from incoming data streams. These stored samples are subsequently leveraged to compensate for model prediction errors during testing, particularly under distribution shifts. The error memory module is designed with fast access capabilities and undergoes continual refreshing with newly observed data samples during the model serving phase to support fast model adaptation. We evaluate the effectiveness of ReLoop2 on three open benchmark datasets as well as a real-world production dataset. The results demonstrate the potential of ReLoop2 in enhancing the responsiveness and adaptiveness of recommender systems operating in non-stationary environments.

Since real-world machine systems are running in non-stationary environments, Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) task is proposed to adapt the pre-trained model to continually changing target domains. Recently, existing methods mainly focus on model-based adaptation, which aims to leverage a self-training manner to extract the target domain knowledge. However, pseudo labels can be noisy and the updated model parameters are unreliable under dynamic data distributions, leading to error accumulation and catastrophic forgetting in the continual adaptation process. To tackle these challenges and maintain the model plasticity, we design a Visual Domain Adapter (ViDA) for CTTA, explicitly handling both domain-specific and domain-shared knowledge. Specifically, we first comprehensively explore the different domain representations of the adapters with trainable high-rank or low-rank embedding spaces. Then we inject ViDAs into the pre-trained model, which leverages high-rank and low-rank features to adapt the current domain distribution and maintain the continual domain-shared knowledge, respectively. To exploit the low-rank and high-rank ViDAs more effectively, we further propose a Homeostatic Knowledge Allotment (HKA) strategy, which adaptively combines different knowledge from each ViDA. Extensive experiments conducted on four widely used benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance in both classification and segmentation CTTA tasks. Note that, our method can be regarded as a novel transfer paradigm for large-scale models, delivering promising results in adaptation to continually changing distributions. Project page: https://sites.google.com/view/iclr2024-vida/home.

While showing sophisticated reasoning abilities, large language models (LLMs) still struggle with long-horizon decision-making tasks due to deficient exploration and long-term credit assignment, especially in sparse-reward scenarios. Inspired by the divide-and-conquer principle, we propose an innovative framework **GLIDER** (**G**rounding **L**anguage Models as Eff**I**cient **D**ecision-Making Agents via Offline Hi**E**rarchical **R**einforcement Learning) that introduces a parameter-efficient and generally applicable hierarchy to LLM policies. We develop a scheme where the low-level controller is supervised with abstract, step-by-step plans that are learned and instructed by the high-level policy. This design decomposes complicated problems into a series of coherent chain-of-thought reasoning sub-tasks, providing flexible temporal abstraction to significantly enhance exploration and learning for long-horizon tasks. Furthermore, GLIDER facilitates fast online adaptation to non-stationary environments owing to the strong transferability of its task-agnostic low-level skills. Experiments on ScienceWorld and ALFWorld benchmarks show that GLIDER achieves consistent performance gains, along with enhanced generalization capabilities.

In Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO), an agent intervenes on an unknown structural causal model to maximize a downstream reward variable. In this paper, we consider the generalization where other agents or external events also intervene on the system, which is key for enabling adaptiveness to non-stationarities such as weather changes, market forces, or adversaries. We formalize this generalization of CBO as Adversarial Causal Bayesian Optimization (ACBO) and introduce the first algorithm for ACBO with bounded regret: Causal Bayesian Optimization with Multiplicative Weights (CBO-MW). Our approach combines a classical online learning strategy with causal modeling of the rewards. To achieve this, it computes optimistic counterfactual reward estimates by propagating uncertainty through the causal graph. We derive regret bounds for CBO-MW that naturally depend on graph-related quantities. We further propose a scalable implementation for the case of combinatorial interventions and submodular rewards. Empirically, CBO-MW outperforms non-causal and non-adversarial Bayesian optimization methods on synthetic environments and environments based on real-word data. Our experiments include a realistic demonstration of how CBO-MW can be used to learn users' demand patterns in a shared mobility system and reposition vehicles in strategic areas.

In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, in which the objective is to select an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in a causal graph. It is assumed that the graph is governed by linear structural equations; it is further assumed that both the causal topology and the distribution of interventions are unknown. By exploiting the causal relationships between the nodes whose signals contribute to the reward, interventions are optimized. First, based on the difference between the two types of graph identification errors (false positives and negatives), a causal graph learning method is proposed, which strongly reduces sample complexity relative to the prior art by learning sub-graphs. Under the assumption of Gaussian exogenous inputs and minimum-mean squared error weight estimation, a new uncertainty bound tailored to the causal bandit problem is derived. This uncertainty bound drives an upper confidence bound based intervention selection to optimize the reward. To cope with non-stationary bandits, a sub-graph change detection mechanism is proposed, with high sample efficiency. Numerical results compare the new methodology to existing schemes and show a substantial performance improvement in both stationary and non-stationary settings. Compared to existing approaches, the proposed scheme takes 67% fewer samples to learn the causal structure and achieves an average reward gain of 85%.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become a popular approach for wireless localization based on channel state information (CSI). A common practice is to use the raw CSI in the input and allow the network to learn relevant channel representations for mapping to location information. However, various works show that raw CSI can be very sensitive to system impairments and small changes in the environment. On the contrary, hand-designing features may hinder the limits of channel representation learning of the DNN. In this work, we propose attention-based CSI for robust feature learning. We evaluate the performance of attended features in centralized and distributed massive MIMO systems for ray-tracing channels in two non-stationary railway track environments. By comparison to a base DNN, our approach provides exceptional performance.

The inherent non-stationarity of financial markets and the complexity of multi-modal information pose significant challenges to existing quantitative trading models. Traditional methods relying on fixed structures and unimodal data struggle to adapt to market regime shifts, while large language model (LLM)-driven solutions - despite their multi-modal comprehension - suffer from static strategies and homogeneous expert designs, lacking dynamic adjustment and fine-grained decision mechanisms. To address these limitations, we propose MM-DREX: a Multimodal-driven, Dynamically-Routed EXpert framework based on large language models. MM-DREX explicitly decouples market state perception from strategy execution to enable adaptive sequential decision-making in non-stationary environments. Specifically, it (1) introduces a vision-language model (VLM)-powered dynamic router that jointly analyzes candlestick chart patterns and long-term temporal features to allocate real-time expert weights; (2) designs four heterogeneous trading experts (trend, reversal, breakout, positioning) generating specialized fine-grained sub-strategies; and (3) proposes an SFT-RL hybrid training paradigm to synergistically optimize the router's market classification capability and experts' risk-adjusted decision-making. Extensive experiments on multi-modal datasets spanning stocks, futures, and cryptocurrencies demonstrate that MM-DREX significantly outperforms 15 baselines (including state-of-the-art financial LLMs and deep reinforcement learning models) across key metrics: total return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown, validating its robustness and generalization. Additionally, an interpretability module traces routing logic and expert behavior in real time, providing an audit trail for strategy transparency.

Test-time domain adaptation aims to adapt a source pre-trained model to a target domain without using any source data. Existing works mainly consider the case where the target domain is static. However, real-world machine perception systems are running in non-stationary and continually changing environments where the target domain distribution can change over time. Existing methods, which are mostly based on self-training and entropy regularization, can suffer from these non-stationary environments. Due to the distribution shift over time in the target domain, pseudo-labels become unreliable. The noisy pseudo-labels can further lead to error accumulation and catastrophic forgetting. To tackle these issues, we propose a continual test-time adaptation approach~(CoTTA) which comprises two parts. Firstly, we propose to reduce the error accumulation by using weight-averaged and augmentation-averaged predictions which are often more accurate. On the other hand, to avoid catastrophic forgetting, we propose to stochastically restore a small part of the neurons to the source pre-trained weights during each iteration to help preserve source knowledge in the long-term. The proposed method enables the long-term adaptation for all parameters in the network. CoTTA is easy to implement and can be readily incorporated in off-the-shelf pre-trained models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on four classification tasks and a segmentation task for continual test-time adaptation, on which we outperform existing methods. Our code is available at https://qin.ee/cotta.

Stochastic optimizers are central to deep learning, yet widely used methods such as Adam and Adan can degrade in non-stationary or noisy environments, partly due to their reliance on momentum-based magnitude estimates. We introduce Ano, a novel optimizer that decouples direction and magnitude: momentum is used for directional smoothing, while instantaneous gradient magnitudes determine step size. This design improves robustness to gradient noise while retaining the simplicity and efficiency of first-order methods. We further propose Anolog, which removes sensitivity to the momentum coefficient by expanding its window over time via a logarithmic schedule. We establish non-convex convergence guarantees with a convergence rate similar to other sign-based methods, and empirically show that Ano provides substantial gains in noisy and non-stationary regimes such as reinforcement learning, while remaining competitive on low-noise tasks such as standard computer vision benchmarks.

What if artificial intelligence could not only solve problems for which it was trained but also learn to teach itself to solve new problems (i.e., meta-learn)? In this study, we demonstrate that a pre-trained transformer fine-tuned with reinforcement learning over multiple episodes develops the ability to solve problems that it has never encountered before - an emergent ability called In-Context Reinforcement Learning (ICRL). This powerful meta-learner not only excels in solving unseen in-distribution environments with remarkable sample efficiency, but also shows strong performance in out-of-distribution environments. In addition, we show that it exhibits robustness to the quality of its training data, seamlessly stitches together behaviors from its context, and adapts to non-stationary environments. These behaviors demonstrate that an RL-trained transformer can iteratively improve upon its own solutions, making it an excellent general-purpose problem solver.

Anomaly detection in time series is essential for industrial monitoring and environmental sensing, yet distinguishing anomalies from complex patterns remains challenging. Existing methods like the Anomaly Transformer and DCdetector have progressed, but they face limitations such as sensitivity to short-term contexts and inefficiency in noisy, non-stationary environments. To overcome these issues, we introduce MAAT, an improved architecture that enhances association discrepancy modeling and reconstruction quality. MAAT features Sparse Attention, efficiently capturing long-range dependencies by focusing on relevant time steps, thereby reducing computational redundancy. Additionally, a Mamba-Selective State Space Model is incorporated into the reconstruction module, utilizing a skip connection and Gated Attention to improve anomaly localization and detection performance. Extensive experiments show that MAAT significantly outperforms previous methods, achieving better anomaly distinguishability and generalization across various time series applications, setting a new standard for unsupervised time series anomaly detection in real-world scenarios.

The ability to learn new concepts sequentially is a major weakness for modern neural networks, which hinders their use in non-stationary environments. Their propensity to fit the current data distribution to the detriment of the past acquired knowledge leads to the catastrophic forgetting issue. In this work we tackle the problem of Spoken Language Understanding applied to a continual learning setting. We first define a class-incremental scenario for the SLURP dataset. Then, we propose three knowledge distillation (KD) approaches to mitigate forgetting for a sequence-to-sequence transformer model: the first KD method is applied to the encoder output (audio-KD), and the other two work on the decoder output, either directly on the token-level (tok-KD) or on the sequence-level (seq-KD) distributions. We show that the seq-KD substantially improves all the performance metrics, and its combination with the audio-KD further decreases the average WER and enhances the entity prediction metric.

Most recently developed approaches to cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning in the centralized training with decentralized execution setting involve estimating a centralized, joint value function. In this paper, we demonstrate that, despite its various theoretical shortcomings, Independent PPO (IPPO), a form of independent learning in which each agent simply estimates its local value function, can perform just as well as or better than state-of-the-art joint learning approaches on popular multi-agent benchmark suite SMAC with little hyperparameter tuning. We also compare IPPO to several variants; the results suggest that IPPO's strong performance may be due to its robustness to some forms of environment non-stationarity.

Autonomous agents' interactions with humans are increasingly focused on adapting to their changing preferences in order to improve assistance in real-world tasks. Effective agents must learn to accurately infer human goals, which are often hidden, to collaborate well. However, existing Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) environments lack the necessary attributes required to rigorously evaluate these agents' learning capabilities. To this end, we introduce ColorGrid, a novel MARL environment with customizable non-stationarity, asymmetry, and reward structure. We investigate the performance of Independent Proximal Policy Optimization (IPPO), a state-of-the-art (SOTA) MARL algorithm, in ColorGrid and find through extensive ablations that, particularly with simultaneous non-stationary and asymmetric goals between a ``leader'' agent representing a human and a ``follower'' assistant agent, ColorGrid is unsolved by IPPO. To support benchmarking future MARL algorithms, we release our environment code, model checkpoints, and trajectory visualizations at https://github.com/andreyrisukhin/ColorGrid.

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

We consider the problem of learning in a non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL) environment, where the setting can be fully described by a piecewise stationary discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP). We introduce a variant of the Restarted Bayesian Online Change-Point Detection algorithm (R-BOCPD) that operates on input streams originating from the more general multinomial distribution and provides near-optimal theoretical guarantees in terms of false-alarm rate and detection delay. Based on this, we propose an improved version of the UCRL2 algorithm for MDPs with state transition kernel sampled from a multinomial distribution, which we call R-BOCPD-UCRL2. We perform a finite-time performance analysis and show that R-BOCPD-UCRL2 enjoys a favorable regret bound of Oleft(D O A T K_T logleft (frac{T{delta} right) + K_T log frac{K_T{delta}}{minlimits_ell : KLleft( {theta^{(ell+1)}}midmathbf{theta^{(ell)}}right)}}right), where D is the largest MDP diameter from the set of MDPs defining the piecewise stationary MDP setting, O is the finite number of states (constant over all changes), A is the finite number of actions (constant over all changes), K_T is the number of change points up to horizon T, and theta^{(ell)} is the transition kernel during the interval [c_ell, c_{ell+1}), which we assume to be multinomially distributed over the set of states O. Interestingly, the performance bound does not directly scale with the variation in MDP state transition distributions and rewards, ie. can also model abrupt changes. In practice, R-BOCPD-UCRL2 outperforms the state-of-the-art in a variety of scenarios in synthetic environments. We provide a detailed experimental setup along with a code repository (upon publication) that can be used to easily reproduce our experiments.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

Diagnosis of bearing faults is paramount to reducing maintenance costs and operational breakdowns. Bearing faults are primary contributors to machine vibrations, and analyzing their signal morphology offers insights into their health status. Unfortunately, existing approaches are optimized for controlled environments, neglecting realistic conditions such as time-varying rotational speeds and the vibration's non-stationary nature. This paper presents a fusion of time-frequency analysis and deep learning techniques to diagnose bearing faults under time-varying speeds and varying noise levels. First, we formulate the bearing fault-induced vibrations and discuss the link between their non-stationarity and the bearing's inherent and operational parameters. We also elucidate quadratic time-frequency distributions and validate their effectiveness in resolving distinctive dynamic patterns associated with different bearing faults. Based on this, we design a time-frequency convolutional neural network (TF-CNN) to diagnose various faults in rolling-element bearings. Our experimental findings undeniably demonstrate the superior performance of TF-CNN in comparison to recently developed techniques. They also assert its versatility in capturing fault-relevant non-stationary features that couple with speed changes and show its exceptional resilience to noise, consistently surpassing competing methods across various signal-to-noise ratios and performance metrics. Altogether, the TF-CNN achieves substantial accuracy improvements up to 15%, in severe noise conditions.

Significant progress has been made in open-vocabulary mobile manipulation, where the goal is for a robot to perform tasks in any environment given a natural language description. However, most current systems assume a static environment, which limits the system's applicability in real-world scenarios where environments frequently change due to human intervention or the robot's own actions. In this work, we present DynaMem, a new approach to open-world mobile manipulation that uses a dynamic spatio-semantic memory to represent a robot's environment. DynaMem constructs a 3D data structure to maintain a dynamic memory of point clouds, and answers open-vocabulary object localization queries using multimodal LLMs or open-vocabulary features generated by state-of-the-art vision-language models. Powered by DynaMem, our robots can explore novel environments, search for objects not found in memory, and continuously update the memory as objects move, appear, or disappear in the scene. We run extensive experiments on the Stretch SE3 robots in three real and nine offline scenes, and achieve an average pick-and-drop success rate of 70% on non-stationary objects, which is more than a 2x improvement over state-of-the-art static systems. Our code as well as our experiment and deployment videos are open sourced and can be found on our project website: https://dynamem.github.io/

In continual learning (CL), an AI agent (e.g., autonomous vehicles or robotics) learns from non-stationary data streams under dynamic environments. For the practical deployment of such applications, it is important to guarantee robustness to unseen environments while maintaining past experiences. In this paper, a novel CL framework is proposed to achieve robust generalization to dynamic environments while retaining past knowledge. The considered CL agent uses a capacity-limited memory to save previously observed environmental information to mitigate forgetting issues. Then, data points are sampled from the memory to estimate the distribution of risks over environmental change so as to obtain predictors that are robust with unseen changes. The generalization and memorization performance of the proposed framework are theoretically analyzed. This analysis showcases the tradeoff between memorization and generalization with the memory size. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm outperforms memory-based CL baselines across all environments while significantly improving the generalization performance on unseen target environments.

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have become a prevalent technique in deep learning for code, utilizing a two-stage pre-training and fine-tuning procedure to acquire general knowledge about code and specialize in a variety of downstream tasks. However, the dynamic nature of software codebases poses a challenge to the effectiveness and robustness of PLMs. In particular, world-realistic scenarios potentially lead to significant differences between the distribution of the pre-training and test data, i.e., distribution shift, resulting in a degradation of the PLM's performance on downstream tasks. In this paper, we stress the need for adapting PLMs of code to software data whose distribution changes over time, a crucial problem that has been overlooked in previous works. The motivation of this work is to consider the PLM in a non-stationary environment, where fine-tuning data evolves over time according to a software evolution scenario. Specifically, we design a scenario where the model needs to learn from a stream of programs containing new, unseen APIs over time. We study two widely used PLM architectures, i.e., a GPT2 decoder and a RoBERTa encoder, on two downstream tasks, API call and API usage prediction. We demonstrate that the most commonly used fine-tuning technique from prior work is not robust enough to handle the dynamic nature of APIs, leading to the loss of previously acquired knowledge i.e., catastrophic forgetting. To address these issues, we implement five continual learning approaches, including replay-based and regularization-based methods. Our findings demonstrate that utilizing these straightforward methods effectively mitigates catastrophic forgetting in PLMs across both downstream tasks while achieving comparable or superior performance.

In lifelong learning, an agent learns throughout its entire life without resets, in a constantly changing environment, as we humans do. Consequently, lifelong learning comes with a plethora of research problems such as continual domain shifts, which result in non-stationary rewards and environment dynamics. These non-stationarities are difficult to detect and cope with due to their continuous nature. Therefore, exploration strategies and learning methods are required that are capable of tracking the steady domain shifts, and adapting to them. We propose Reactive Exploration to track and react to continual domain shifts in lifelong reinforcement learning, and to update the policy correspondingly. To this end, we conduct experiments in order to investigate different exploration strategies. We empirically show that representatives of the policy-gradient family are better suited for lifelong learning, as they adapt more quickly to distribution shifts than Q-learning. Thereby, policy-gradient methods profit the most from Reactive Exploration and show good results in lifelong learning with continual domain shifts. Our code is available at: https://github.com/ml-jku/reactive-exploration.

We study the problem of learning goal-conditioned policies in Minecraft, a popular, widely accessible yet challenging open-ended environment for developing human-level multi-task agents. We first identify two main challenges of learning such policies: 1) the indistinguishability of tasks from the state distribution, due to the vast scene diversity, and 2) the non-stationary nature of environment dynamics caused by partial observability. To tackle the first challenge, we propose Goal-Sensitive Backbone (GSB) for the policy to encourage the emergence of goal-relevant visual state representations. To tackle the second challenge, the policy is further fueled by an adaptive horizon prediction module that helps alleviate the learning uncertainty brought by the non-stationary dynamics. Experiments on 20 Minecraft tasks show that our method significantly outperforms the best baseline so far; in many of them, we double the performance. Our ablation and exploratory studies then explain how our approach beat the counterparts and also unveil the surprising bonus of zero-shot generalization to new scenes (biomes). We hope our agent could help shed some light on learning goal-conditioned, multi-task agents in challenging, open-ended environments like Minecraft.

This paper considers an integrated sensing and communication system, where some radar targets also serve as communication scatterers. A location domain channel modeling method is proposed based on the position of targets and scatterers in the scattering environment, and the resulting radar and communication channels exhibit a two-dimensional (2-D) joint burst sparsity. We propose a joint scattering environment sensing and channel estimation scheme to enhance the target/scatterer localization and channel estimation performance simultaneously, where a spatially non-stationary Markov random field (MRF) model is proposed to capture the 2-D joint burst sparsity. An expectation maximization (EM) based method is designed to solve the joint estimation problem, where the E-step obtains the Bayesian estimation of the radar and communication channels and the M-step automatically learns the dynamic position grid and prior parameters in the MRF. However, the existing sparse Bayesian inference methods used in the E-step involve a high-complexity matrix inverse per iteration. Moreover, due to the complicated non-stationary MRF prior, the complexity of M-step is exponentially large. To address these difficulties, we propose an inverse-free variational Bayesian inference algorithm for the E-step and a low-complexity method based on pseudo-likelihood approximation for the M-step. In the simulations, the proposed scheme can achieve a better performance than the state-of-the-art method while reducing the computational overhead significantly.

In deep reinforcement learning (RL) research, there has been a concerted effort to design more efficient and productive exploration methods while solving sparse-reward problems. These exploration methods often share common principles (e.g., improving diversity) and implementation details (e.g., intrinsic reward). Prior work found that non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs) require exploration to efficiently adapt to changes in the environment with online transfer learning. However, the relationship between specific exploration characteristics and effective transfer learning in deep RL has not been characterized. In this work, we seek to understand the relationships between salient exploration characteristics and improved performance and efficiency in transfer learning. We test eleven popular exploration algorithms on a variety of transfer types -- or ``novelties'' -- to identify the characteristics that positively affect online transfer learning. Our analysis shows that some characteristics correlate with improved performance and efficiency across a wide range of transfer tasks, while others only improve transfer performance with respect to specific environment changes. From our analysis, make recommendations about which exploration algorithm characteristics are best suited to specific transfer situations.

Accurate predictions using sequential spatiotemporal data are crucial for various applications. Utilizing real-world data, we aim to learn the intent of a smart device user within confined areas of a vehicle's surroundings. However, in real-world scenarios, environmental factors and sensor limitations result in non-stationary and irregularly sampled data, posing significant challenges. To address these issues, we developed a Transformer-based approach, STaRFormer, which serves as a universal framework for sequential modeling. STaRFormer employs a novel, dynamic attention-based regional masking scheme combined with semi-supervised contrastive learning to enhance task-specific latent representations. Comprehensive experiments on 15 datasets varying in types (including non-stationary and irregularly sampled), domains, sequence lengths, training samples, and applications, demonstrate the efficacy and practicality of STaRFormer. We achieve notable improvements over state-of-the-art approaches. Code and data will be made available.

In real-world scenarios, the application of reinforcement learning is significantly challenged by complex non-stationarity. Most existing methods attempt to model changes in the environment explicitly, often requiring impractical prior knowledge of environments. In this paper, we propose a new perspective, positing that non-stationarity can propagate and accumulate through complex causal relationships during state transitions, thereby compounding its sophistication and affecting policy learning. We believe that this challenge can be more effectively addressed by implicitly tracing the causal origin of non-stationarity. To this end, we introduce the Causal-Origin REPresentation (COREP) algorithm. COREP primarily employs a guided updating mechanism to learn a stable graph representation for the state, termed as causal-origin representation. By leveraging this representation, the learned policy exhibits impressive resilience to non-stationarity. We supplement our approach with a theoretical analysis grounded in the causal interpretation for non-stationary reinforcement learning, advocating for the validity of the causal-origin representation. Experimental results further demonstrate the superior performance of COREP over existing methods in tackling non-stationarity problems.

We explore deep reinforcement learning methods for multi-agent domains. We begin by analyzing the difficulty of traditional algorithms in the multi-agent case: Q-learning is challenged by an inherent non-stationarity of the environment, while policy gradient suffers from a variance that increases as the number of agents grows. We then present an adaptation of actor-critic methods that considers action policies of other agents and is able to successfully learn policies that require complex multi-agent coordination. Additionally, we introduce a training regimen utilizing an ensemble of policies for each agent that leads to more robust multi-agent policies. We show the strength of our approach compared to existing methods in cooperative as well as competitive scenarios, where agent populations are able to discover various physical and informational coordination strategies.

Benchmarks play an important role in the development of machine learning algorithms. For example, research in reinforcement learning (RL) has been heavily influenced by available environments and benchmarks. However, RL environments are traditionally run on the CPU, limiting their scalability with typical academic compute. Recent advancements in JAX have enabled the wider use of hardware acceleration to overcome these computational hurdles, enabling massively parallel RL training pipelines and environments. This is particularly useful for multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) research. First of all, multiple agents must be considered at each environment step, adding computational burden, and secondly, the sample complexity is increased due to non-stationarity, decentralised partial observability, or other MARL challenges. In this paper, we present JaxMARL, the first open-source code base that combines ease-of-use with GPU enabled efficiency, and supports a large number of commonly used MARL environments as well as popular baseline algorithms. When considering wall clock time, our experiments show that per-run our JAX-based training pipeline is up to 12500x faster than existing approaches. This enables efficient and thorough evaluations, with the potential to alleviate the evaluation crisis of the field. We also introduce and benchmark SMAX, a vectorised, simplified version of the popular StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge, which removes the need to run the StarCraft II game engine. This not only enables GPU acceleration, but also provides a more flexible MARL environment, unlocking the potential for self-play, meta-learning, and other future applications in MARL. We provide code at https://github.com/flairox/jaxmarl.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models, and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

We derive an expression for the variation between parallel trajectories in phenotypic evolution, extending the well known result that predicts the mean evolutionary path in adaptive dynamics or quantitative genetics. We show how this expression gives rise to the notion of fluctuation domains - parts of the fitness landscape where the rate of evolution is very predictable (due to fluctuation dissipation) and parts where it is highly variable (due to fluctuation enhancement). These fluctuation domains are determined by the curvature of the fitness landscape. Regions of the fitness landscape with positive curvature, such as adaptive valleys or branching points, experience enhancement. Regions with negative curvature, such as adaptive peaks, experience dissipation. We explore these dynamics in the ecological scenarios of implicit and explicit competition for a limiting resource.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Models that can simulate how environments change in response to actions can be used by agents to plan and act efficiently. We improve on previous environment simulators from high-dimensional pixel observations by introducing recurrent neural networks that are able to make temporally and spatially coherent predictions for hundreds of time-steps into the future. We present an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting performance, providing the most extensive attempt to advance the understanding of the properties of these models. We address the issue of computationally inefficiency with a model that does not need to generate a high-dimensional image at each time-step. We show that our approach can be used to improve exploration and is adaptable to many diverse environments, namely 10 Atari games, a 3D car racing environment, and complex 3D mazes.

Motivated by emerging applications such as live-streaming e-commerce, promotions and recommendations, we introduce and solve a general class of non-stationary multi-armed bandit problems that have the following two features: (i) the decision maker can pull and collect rewards from up to K,(ge 1) out of N different arms in each time period; (ii) the expected reward of an arm immediately drops after it is pulled, and then non-parametrically recovers as the arm's idle time increases. With the objective of maximizing the expected cumulative reward over T time periods, we design a class of ``Purely Periodic Policies'' that jointly set a period to pull each arm. For the proposed policies, we prove performance guarantees for both the offline problem and the online problems. For the offline problem when all model parameters are known, the proposed periodic policy obtains an approximation ratio that is at the order of 1-mathcal O(1/K), which is asymptotically optimal when K grows to infinity. For the online problem when the model parameters are unknown and need to be dynamically learned, we integrate the offline periodic policy with the upper confidence bound procedure to construct on online policy. The proposed online policy is proved to approximately have mathcal O(NT) regret against the offline benchmark. Our framework and policy design may shed light on broader offline planning and online learning applications with non-stationary and recovering rewards.

Games have been vital test beds for the rapid development of Agent-based research. Remarkable progress has been achieved in the past, but it is unclear if the findings equip for real-world problems. While pressure grows, some of the most critical ecological challenges can find mitigation and prevention solutions through technology and its applications. Most real-world domains include multi-agent scenarios and require machine-machine and human-machine collaboration. Open-source environments have not advanced and are often toy scenarios, too abstract or not suitable for multi-agent research. By mimicking real-world problems and increasing the complexity of environments, we hope to advance state-of-the-art multi-agent research and inspire researchers to work on immediate real-world problems. Here, we present HIVEX, an environment suite to benchmark multi-agent research focusing on ecological challenges. HIVEX includes the following environments: Wind Farm Control, Wildfire Resource Management, Drone-Based Reforestation, Ocean Plastic Collection, and Aerial Wildfire Suppression. We provide environments, training examples, and baselines for the main and sub-tasks. All trained models resulting from the experiments of this work are hosted on Hugging Face. We also provide a leaderboard on Hugging Face and encourage the community to submit models trained on our environment suite.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

In this paper, we address the task of interacting with dynamic environments where the changes in the environment are independent of the agent. We study this through the context of trapping a moving ball with a UR5 robotic arm. Our key contribution is an approach to utilize a static planner for dynamic tasks using a Dynamic Planning add-on; that is, if we can successfully solve a task with a static target, then our approach can solve the same task when the target is moving. Our approach has three key components: an off-the-shelf static planner, a trajectory forecasting network, and a network to predict robot's estimated time of arrival at any location. We demonstrate the generalization of our approach across environments. More information and videos at https://mlevy2525.github.io/DynamicAddOn.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

This paper concerns a long-range random walk in random environment in dimension 1+1, where the environmental disorder is independent in space but has long-range correlations in time. We prove that two types of rescaled partition functions converge weakly to the Stratonovich solution and the It\^o-Skorohod solution respectively of a fractional stochastic heat equation with multiplicative Gaussian noise which is white in space and colored in time.

Learning the continuous dynamics of a system from snapshots of its temporal marginals is a problem which appears throughout natural sciences and machine learning, including in quantum systems, single-cell biological data, and generative modeling. In these settings, we assume access to cross-sectional samples that are uncorrelated over time, rather than full trajectories of samples. In order to better understand the systems under observation, we would like to learn a model of the underlying process that allows us to propagate samples in time and thereby simulate entire individual trajectories. In this work, we propose Action Matching, a method for learning a rich family of dynamics using only independent samples from its time evolution. We derive a tractable training objective, which does not rely on explicit assumptions about the underlying dynamics and does not require back-propagation through differential equations or optimal transport solvers. Inspired by connections with optimal transport, we derive extensions of Action Matching to learn stochastic differential equations and dynamics involving creation and destruction of probability mass. Finally, we showcase applications of Action Matching by achieving competitive performance in a diverse set of experiments from biology, physics, and generative modeling.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence, an extension of weak convergence that compares a statistic or process to a sequence of evolving processes. Relative weak convergence retains the essential consequences of classical weak convergence and coincides with it under stationarity. Crucially, it applies in general non-stationary settings where classical weak convergence fails. We establish concrete relative CLTs for random vectors and empirical processes, along with sequential, weighted, and bootstrap variants, that parallel the state-of-the-art in stationary settings. Our framework and results offer simple, plug-in replacements for classical CLTs whenever stationarity is untenable, as illustrated by applications in nonparametric trend estimation and hypothesis testing.

Machine learning has achieved remarkable success in many applications. However, existing studies are largely based on the closed-world assumption, which assumes that the environment is stationary, and the model is fixed once deployed. In many real-world applications, this fundamental and rather naive assumption may not hold because an open environment is complex, dynamic, and full of unknowns. In such cases, rejecting unknowns, discovering novelties, and then incrementally learning them, could enable models to be safe and evolve continually as biological systems do. This paper provides a holistic view of open-world machine learning by investigating unknown rejection, novel class discovery, and class-incremental learning in a unified paradigm. The challenges, principles, and limitations of current methodologies are discussed in detail. Finally, we discuss several potential directions for future research. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive introduction to the emerging open-world machine learning paradigm, to help researchers build more powerful AI systems in their respective fields, and to promote the development of artificial general intelligence.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

Autoregressive (AR) models, common in sequence generation, are limited in many biological tasks such as de novo peptide sequencing and protein modeling by their unidirectional nature, failing to capture crucial global bidirectional token dependencies. Non-Autoregressive (NAR) models offer holistic, bidirectional representations but face challenges with generative coherence and scalability. To transcend this, we propose a hybrid framework enhancing AR generation by dynamically integrating rich contextual information from non-autoregressive mechanisms. Our approach couples a shared input encoder with two decoders: a non-autoregressive one learning latent bidirectional biological features, and an AR decoder synthesizing the biological sequence by leveraging these bidirectional features. A novel cross-decoder attention module enables the AR decoder to iteratively query and integrate these bidirectional features, enriching its predictions. This synergy is cultivated via a tailored training strategy with importance annealing for balanced objectives and cross-decoder gradient blocking for stable, focused learning. Evaluations on a demanding nine-species benchmark of de novo peptide sequencing show that our model substantially surpasses AR and NAR baselines. It uniquely harmonizes AR stability with NAR contextual awareness, delivering robust, superior performance on diverse downstream data. This research advances biological sequence modeling techniques and contributes a novel architectural paradigm for augmenting AR models with enhanced bidirectional understanding for complex sequence generation. Code is available at https://github.com/BEAM-Labs/denovo.

While autoregressive machine-learning-based emulators have been trained to produce stable and accurate rollouts in the climate of the present-day and recent past, none so far have been trained to emulate the sensitivity of climate to substantial changes in CO_2 or other greenhouse gases. As an initial step we couple the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 to a slab ocean model (hereafter ACE2-SOM) and train it on output from a collection of equilibrium-climate physics-based reference simulations with varying levels of CO_2. We test it in equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate scenarios with CO_2 concentrations seen and unseen in training. ACE2-SOM performs well in equilibrium-climate inference with both in-sample and out-of-sample CO_2 concentrations, accurately reproducing the emergent time-mean spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change with CO_2 doubling, tripling, or quadrupling. In addition, the vertical profile of atmospheric warming and change in extreme precipitation rates with increased CO_2 closely agree with the reference model. Non-equilibrium-climate inference is more challenging. With CO_2 increasing gradually at a rate of 2% year^{-1}, ACE2-SOM can accurately emulate the global annual mean trends of surface and lower-to-middle atmosphere fields but produces unphysical jumps in stratospheric fields. With an abrupt quadrupling of CO_2, ML-controlled fields transition unrealistically quickly to the 4xCO_2 regime. In doing so they violate global energy conservation and exhibit unphysical sensitivities of and surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes to instantaneous changes in CO_2. Future emulator development needed to address these issues should improve its generalizability to diverse climate change scenarios.

Evolvability is an important feature that impacts the ability of evolutionary processes to find interesting novel solutions and to deal with changing conditions of the problem to solve. The estimation of evolvability is not straightforward and is generally too expensive to be directly used as selective pressure in the evolutionary process. Indirectly promoting evolvability as a side effect of other easier and faster to compute selection pressures would thus be advantageous. In an unbounded behavior space, it has already been shown that evolvable individuals naturally appear and tend to be selected as they are more likely to invade empty behavior niches. Evolvability is thus a natural byproduct of the search in this context. However, practical agents and environments often impose limits on the reach-able behavior space. How do these boundaries impact evolvability? In this context, can evolvability still be promoted without explicitly rewarding it? We show that Novelty Search implicitly creates a pressure for high evolvability even in bounded behavior spaces, and explore the reasons for such a behavior. More precisely we show that, throughout the search, the dynamic evaluation of novelty rewards individuals which are very mobile in the behavior space, which in turn promotes evolvability.

Exploration bonuses in reinforcement learning guide long-horizon exploration by defining custom intrinsic objectives. Several exploration objectives like count-based bonuses, pseudo-counts, and state-entropy maximization are non-stationary and hence are difficult to optimize for the agent. While this issue is generally known, it is usually omitted and solutions remain under-explored. The key contribution of our work lies in transforming the original non-stationary rewards into stationary rewards through an augmented state representation. For this purpose, we introduce the Stationary Objectives For Exploration (SOFE) framework. SOFE requires identifying sufficient statistics for different exploration bonuses and finding an efficient encoding of these statistics to use as input to a deep network. SOFE is based on proposing state augmentations that expand the state space but hold the promise of simplifying the optimization of the agent's objective. We show that SOFE improves the performance of several exploration objectives, including count-based bonuses, pseudo-counts, and state-entropy maximization. Moreover, SOFE outperforms prior methods that attempt to stabilize the optimization of intrinsic objectives. We demonstrate the efficacy of SOFE in hard-exploration problems, including sparse-reward tasks, pixel-based observations, 3D navigation, and procedurally generated environments.

Nowadays, autonomous cars can drive smoothly in ordinary cases, and it is widely recognized that realistic sensor simulation will play a critical role in solving remaining corner cases by simulating them. To this end, we propose an autonomous driving simulator based upon neural radiance fields (NeRFs). Compared with existing works, ours has three notable features: (1) Instance-aware. Our simulator models the foreground instances and background environments separately with independent networks so that the static (e.g., size and appearance) and dynamic (e.g., trajectory) properties of instances can be controlled separately. (2) Modular. Our simulator allows flexible switching between different modern NeRF-related backbones, sampling strategies, input modalities, etc. We expect this modular design to boost academic progress and industrial deployment of NeRF-based autonomous driving simulation. (3) Realistic. Our simulator set new state-of-the-art photo-realism results given the best module selection. Our simulator will be open-sourced while most of our counterparts are not. Project page: https://open-air-sun.github.io/mars/.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

In a recent work, Laforgue et al. introduce the model of last switch dependent (LSD) bandits, in an attempt to capture nonstationary phenomena induced by the interaction between the player and the environment. Examples include satiation, where consecutive plays of the same action lead to decreased performance, or deprivation, where the payoff of an action increases after an interval of inactivity. In this work, we take a step towards understanding the approximability of planning LSD bandits, namely, the (NP-hard) problem of computing an optimal arm-pulling strategy under complete knowledge of the model. In particular, we design the first efficient constant approximation algorithm for the problem and show that, under a natural monotonicity assumption on the payoffs, its approximation guarantee (almost) matches the state-of-the-art for the special and well-studied class of recharging bandits (also known as delay-dependent). In this attempt, we develop new tools and insights for this class of problems, including a novel higher-dimensional relaxation and the technique of mirroring the evolution of virtual states. We believe that these novel elements could potentially be used for approaching richer classes of action-induced nonstationary bandits (e.g., special instances of restless bandits). In the case where the model parameters are initially unknown, we develop an online learning adaptation of our algorithm for which we provide sublinear regret guarantees against its full-information counterpart.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms are often known for sample inefficiency and difficult generalization. Recently, Unsupervised Environment Design (UED) emerged as a new paradigm for zero-shot generalization by simultaneously learning a task distribution and agent policies on the generated tasks. This is a non-stationary process where the task distribution evolves along with agent policies; creating an instability over time. While past works demonstrated the potential of such approaches, sampling effectively from the task space remains an open challenge, bottlenecking these approaches. To this end, we introduce CLUTR: a novel unsupervised curriculum learning algorithm that decouples task representation and curriculum learning into a two-stage optimization. It first trains a recurrent variational autoencoder on randomly generated tasks to learn a latent task manifold. Next, a teacher agent creates a curriculum by maximizing a minimax REGRET-based objective on a set of latent tasks sampled from this manifold. Using the fixed-pretrained task manifold, we show that CLUTR successfully overcomes the non-stationarity problem and improves stability. Our experimental results show CLUTR outperforms PAIRED, a principled and popular UED method, in the challenging CarRacing and navigation environments: achieving 10.6X and 45\% improvement in zero-shot generalization, respectively. CLUTR also performs comparably to the non-UED state-of-the-art for CarRacing, while requiring 500X fewer environment interactions.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Thermal comfort inside buildings is a well-studied field where human judgment for thermal comfort is collected and may be used for automatic thermal comfort estimation. However, indoor scenarios are rather static in terms of thermal state changes and, thus, cannot be applied to dynamic conditions, e.g., inside a vehicle. In this work, we present our findings of a gap between building and in-vehicle scenarios regarding thermal comfort estimation. We provide evidence by comparing deep neural classifiers for thermal comfort estimation for indoor and in-vehicle conditions. Further, we introduce a temporal dataset for indoor predictions incorporating 31 input signals and self-labeled user ratings by 18 subjects in a self-built climatic chamber. For in-vehicle scenarios, we acquired a second dataset featuring human judgments from 20 subjects in a BMW 3 Series. Our experimental results indicate superior performance for estimations from time series data over single vector input. Leveraging modern machine learning architectures enables us to recognize human thermal comfort states and estimate future states automatically. We provide details on training a recurrent network-based classifier and perform an initial performance benchmark of the proposed dataset. Ultimately, we compare our collected dataset to publicly available thermal comfort datasets.

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

The emergence of complex life on Earth is often attributed to the arms race that ensued from a huge number of organisms all competing for finite resources. We present an artificial intelligence research environment, inspired by the human game genre of MMORPGs (Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games, a.k.a. MMOs), that aims to simulate this setting in microcosm. As with MMORPGs and the real world alike, our environment is persistent and supports a large and variable number of agents. Our environment is well suited to the study of large-scale multiagent interaction: it requires that agents learn robust combat and navigation policies in the presence of large populations attempting to do the same. Baseline experiments reveal that population size magnifies and incentivizes the development of skillful behaviors and results in agents that outcompete agents trained in smaller populations. We further show that the policies of agents with unshared weights naturally diverge to fill different niches in order to avoid competition.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

Heterogeneity in sensors and actuators across environments poses a significant challenge to building large-scale pre-trained world models on top of this low-dimensional sensor information. In this work, we explore pre-training world models for heterogeneous environments by addressing key transfer barriers in both data diversity and model flexibility. We introduce UniTraj, a unified dataset comprising over one million trajectories from 80 environments, designed to scale data while preserving critical diversity. Additionally, we propose TrajWorld, a novel architecture capable of flexibly handling varying sensor and actuator information and capturing environment dynamics in-context. Pre-training TrajWorld on UniTraj demonstrates significant improvements in transition prediction and achieves a new state-of-the-art for off-policy evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this work, for the first time, demonstrates the transfer benefits of world models across heterogeneous and complex control environments.

The statistical mechanics of Gibbs is a juxtaposition of subjective, probabilistic ideas on the one hand and objective, mechanical ideas on the other. In this paper, we follow the path set out by Jaynes, including elements added subsequently to that original work, to explore the consequences of the purely statistical point of view. We show how standard methods in the equilibrium theory could have been derived simply from a description of the available problem information. In addition, our presentation leads to novel insights into questions associated with symmetry and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. Two surprising consequences to be explored in further work are that (in)distinguishability factors are automatically predicted from the problem formulation and that a quantity related to the thermodynamic entropy production is found by considering information loss in non-equilibrium processes. Using the problem of ion channel thermodynamics as an example, we illustrate the idea of building up complexity by successively adding information to create progressively more complex descriptions of a physical system. Our result is that such statistical mechanical descriptions can be used to create transparent, computable, experimentally-relevant models that may be informed by more detailed atomistic simulations. We also derive a theory for the kinetic behavior of this system, identifying the nonequilibrium `process' free energy functional. The Gibbs relation for this functional is a fluctuation-dissipation theorem applicable arbitrarily far from equilibrium, that captures the effect of non-local and time-dependent behavior from transient driving forces. Based on this work, it is clear that statistical mechanics is a general tool for constructing the relationships between constraints on system information.

We investigate the fidelity of Grover's search algorithm by implementing it on an open quantum system. In particular, we study with what accuracy one can estimate that the algorithm would deliver the searched state. In reality, every system has some influence of its environment. We include the environmental effects on the system dynamics by using a recently reported fluctuation-regulated quantum master equation (FRQME). The FRQME indicates that in addition to the regular relaxation due to system-environment coupling, the applied drive also causes dissipation in the system dynamics. As a result, the fidelity is found to depend on both the drive-induced dissipative terms and the relaxation terms and we find that there exists a competition between them, leading to an optimum value of the drive amplitude for which the fidelity becomes maximum. For efficient implementation of the search algorithm, precise knowledge of this optimum drive amplitude is essential.

All current formulations of thermodynamics invoke some form of coarse-graining or ensembles as the supposed link between their own laws and the microscopic laws of motion. They deal only with ensemble-averages, expectation values, macroscopic limits, infinite heat baths, etc., not with the details of physical variables of individual microscopic systems. They are consistent with the laws of motion for finite systems only in certain approximations, which improve with increasing scale, given various assumptions about initial conditions which are neither specified precisely nor even thought to hold exactly in nature. Here I propose a new formulation of the zeroth, first and second laws, improving upon the axiomatic approach to thermodynamics (Carath\'eodory, 1909; Lieb & Yngvason, 1999), via the principles of the recently proposed constructor theory. Specifically, I provide a non-approximative, scale-independent formulation of 'adiabatic accessibility'; this in turn provides a non-approximative, scale-independent distinction between work and heat and reveals an unexpected connection between information theory and the first law of thermodynamics (not just the second). It also achieves the long-sought unification of the axiomatic approach with Kelvin's.

Autoregressive decoding is the only part of sequence-to-sequence models that prevents them from massive parallelization at inference time. Non-autoregressive models enable the decoder to generate all output symbols independently in parallel. We present a novel non-autoregressive architecture based on connectionist temporal classification and evaluate it on the task of neural machine translation. Unlike other non-autoregressive methods which operate in several steps, our model can be trained end-to-end. We conduct experiments on the WMT English-Romanian and English-German datasets. Our models achieve a significant speedup over the autoregressive models, keeping the translation quality comparable to other non-autoregressive models.

While the field of Quality-Diversity (QD) has grown into a distinct branch of stochastic optimization, a few problems, in particular locomotion and navigation tasks, have become de facto standards. Are such benchmarks sufficient? Are they representative of the key challenges faced by QD algorithms? Do they provide the ability to focus on one particular challenge by properly disentangling it from others? Do they have much predictive power in terms of scalability and generalization? Existing benchmarks are not standardized, and there is currently no MNIST equivalent for QD. Inspired by recent works on Reinforcement Learning benchmarks, we argue that the identification of challenges faced by QD methods and the development of targeted, challenging, scalable but affordable benchmarks is an important step. As an initial effort, we identify three problems that are challenging in sparse reward settings, and propose associated benchmarks: (1) Behavior metric bias, which can result from the use of metrics that do not match the structure of the behavior space. (2) Behavioral Plateaus, with varying characteristics, such that escaping them would require adaptive QD algorithms and (3) Evolvability Traps, where small variations in genotype result in large behavioral changes. The environments that we propose satisfy the properties listed above.

World models aim to simulate environments and enable effective agent behavior. However, modeling real-world environments presents unique challenges as they dynamically change across both space and, crucially, time. To capture these composed dynamics, we introduce a Spatio-Temporal Road Image Dataset for Exploration (STRIDE) permuting 360-degree panoramic imagery into rich interconnected observation, state and action nodes. Leveraging this structure, we can simultaneously model the relationship between egocentric views, positional coordinates, and movement commands across both space and time. We benchmark this dataset via TARDIS, a transformer-based generative world model that integrates spatial and temporal dynamics through a unified autoregressive framework trained on STRIDE. We demonstrate robust performance across a range of agentic tasks such as controllable photorealistic image synthesis, instruction following, autonomous self-control, and state-of-the-art georeferencing. These results suggest a promising direction towards sophisticated generalist agents--capable of understanding and manipulating the spatial and temporal aspects of their material environments--with enhanced embodied reasoning capabilities. Training code, datasets, and model checkpoints are made available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Tera-AI/STRIDE.

The classical Coulomb gas model has served as one of the most versatile frameworks in statistical physics, connecting a vast range of phenomena across many different areas. Nonequilibrium generalisations of this model have so far been studied much more scarcely. With the abundance of contemporary research into active and driven systems, one would naturally expect that such generalisations of systems with long-ranged Coulomb-like interactions will form a fertile playground for interesting developments. Here, we present two examples of novel macroscopic behaviour that arise from nonequilibrium fluctuations in long-range interacting systems, namely (1) unscreened long-ranged correlations in strong electrolytes driven by an external electric field and the associated fluctuation-induced forces in the confined Casimir geometry, and (2) out-of-equilibrium critical behaviour in self-chemotactic models that incorporate the particle polarity in the chemotactic response of the cells. Both of these systems have nonlocal Coulomb-like interactions among their constituent particles, namely, the electrostatic interactions in the case of the driven electrolyte, and the chemotactic forces mediated by fast-diffusing signals in the case of self-chemotactic systems. The results presented here hint to the rich phenomenology of nonequilibrium effects that can arise from strong fluctuations in Coulomb interacting systems, and a rich variety of potential future directions, which are discussed.

Recent advances in high-fidelity virtual environments serve as one of the major driving forces for building intelligent embodied agents to perceive, reason and interact with the physical world. Typically, these environments remain unchanged unless agents interact with them. However, in real-world scenarios, agents might also face dynamically changing environments characterized by unexpected events and need to rapidly take action accordingly. To remedy this gap, we propose a new simulated embodied benchmark, called HAZARD, specifically designed to assess the decision-making abilities of embodied agents in dynamic situations. HAZARD consists of three unexpected disaster scenarios, including fire, flood, and wind, and specifically supports the utilization of large language models (LLMs) to assist common sense reasoning and decision-making. This benchmark enables us to evaluate autonomous agents' decision-making capabilities across various pipelines, including reinforcement learning (RL), rule-based, and search-based methods in dynamically changing environments. As a first step toward addressing this challenge using large language models, we further develop an LLM-based agent and perform an in-depth analysis of its promise and challenge of solving these challenging tasks. HAZARD is available at https://vis-www.cs.umass.edu/hazard/.

In reinforcement learning, agents collect state information and rewards through environmental interactions, essential for policy refinement. This process is notably time-consuming, especially in complex robotic simulations and real-world applications. Traditional algorithms usually re-engage with the environment after processing a single batch of samples, thereby failing to fully capitalize on historical data. However, frequently observed states, with reliable value estimates, require minimal updates; in contrast, rare observed states necessitate more intensive updates for achieving accurate value estimations. To address uneven sample utilization, we propose Novelty-guided Sample Reuse (NSR). NSR provides extra updates for infrequent, novel states and skips additional updates for frequent states, maximizing sample use before interacting with the environment again. Our experiments show that NSR improves the convergence rate and success rate of algorithms without significantly increasing time consumption. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ppksigs/NSR-DDPG-HER.

Most machine learning (ML) systems assume stationary and matching data distributions during training and deployment. This is often a false assumption. When ML models are deployed on real devices, data distributions often shift over time due to changes in environmental factors, sensor characteristics, and task-of-interest. While it is possible to have a human-in-the-loop to monitor for distribution shifts and engineer new architectures in response to these shifts, such a setup is not cost-effective. Instead, non-stationary automated ML (AutoML) models are needed. This paper presents the Encoder-Adaptor-Reconfigurator (EAR) framework for efficient continual learning under domain shifts. The EAR framework uses a fixed deep neural network (DNN) feature encoder and trains shallow networks on top of the encoder to handle novel data. The EAR framework is capable of 1) detecting when new data is out-of-distribution (OOD) by combining DNNs with hyperdimensional computing (HDC), 2) identifying low-parameter neural adaptors to adapt the model to the OOD data using zero-shot neural architecture search (ZS-NAS), and 3) minimizing catastrophic forgetting on previous tasks by progressively growing the neural architecture as needed and dynamically routing data through the appropriate adaptors and reconfigurators for handling domain-incremental and class-incremental continual learning. We systematically evaluate our approach on several benchmark datasets for domain adaptation and demonstrate strong performance compared to state-of-the-art algorithms for OOD detection and few-/zero-shot NAS.

Symbolic world modeling requires inferring and representing an environment's transitional dynamics as an executable program. Prior work has focused on largely deterministic environments with abundant interaction data, simple mechanics, and human guidance. We address a more realistic and challenging setting, learning in a complex, stochastic environment where the agent has only "one life" to explore a hostile environment without human guidance. We introduce OneLife, a framework that models world dynamics through conditionally-activated programmatic laws within a probabilistic programming framework. Each law operates through a precondition-effect structure, activating in relevant world states. This creates a dynamic computation graph that routes inference and optimization only through relevant laws, avoiding scaling challenges when all laws contribute to predictions about a complex, hierarchical state, and enabling the learning of stochastic dynamics even with sparse rule activation. To evaluate our approach under these demanding constraints, we introduce a new evaluation protocol that measures (a) state ranking, the ability to distinguish plausible future states from implausible ones, and (b) state fidelity, the ability to generate future states that closely resemble reality. We develop and evaluate our framework on Crafter-OO, our reimplementation of the Crafter environment that exposes a structured, object-oriented symbolic state and a pure transition function that operates on that state alone. OneLife can successfully learn key environment dynamics from minimal, unguided interaction, outperforming a strong baseline on 16 out of 23 scenarios tested. We also test OneLife's planning ability, with simulated rollouts successfully identifying superior strategies. Our work establishes a foundation for autonomously constructing programmatic world models of unknown, complex environments.

We study the non-stationary dueling bandits problem with K arms, where the time horizon T consists of M stationary segments, each of which is associated with its own preference matrix. The learner repeatedly selects a pair of arms and observes a binary preference between them as feedback. To minimize the accumulated regret, the learner needs to pick the Condorcet winner of each stationary segment as often as possible, despite preference matrices and segment lengths being unknown. We propose the Beat, the, Winner, Reset algorithm and prove a bound on its expected binary weak regret in the stationary case, which tightens the bound of current state-of-art algorithms. We also show a regret bound for the non-stationary case, without requiring knowledge of M or T. We further propose and analyze two meta-algorithms, DETECT for weak regret and Monitored, Dueling, Bandits for strong regret, both based on a detection-window approach that can incorporate any dueling bandit algorithm as a black-box algorithm. Finally, we prove a worst-case lower bound for expected weak regret in the non-stationary case.

Ocean scientists have been collecting visual data to study marine organisms for decades. These images and videos are extremely valuable both for basic science and environmental monitoring tasks. There are tools for automatically processing these data, but none that are capable of handling the extreme variability in sample populations, image quality, and habitat characteristics that are common in visual sampling of the ocean. Such distribution shifts can occur over very short physical distances and in narrow time windows. Creating models that are able to recognize when an image or video sequence contains a new organism, an unusual collection of animals, or is otherwise out-of-sample is critical to fully leverage visual data in the ocean. The FathomNet2023 competition dataset presents a realistic scenario where the set of animals in the target data differs from the training data. The challenge is both to identify the organisms in a target image and assess whether it is out-of-sample.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Artificial neural networks have exceeded human-level performance in accomplishing several individual tasks (e.g. voice recognition, object recognition, and video games). However, such success remains modest compared to human intelligence that can learn and perform an unlimited number of tasks. Humans' ability of learning and accumulating knowledge over their lifetime is an essential aspect of their intelligence. Continual machine learning aims at a higher level of machine intelligence through providing the artificial agents with the ability to learn online from a non-stationary and never-ending stream of data. A key component of such a never-ending learning process is to overcome the catastrophic forgetting of previously seen data, a problem that neural networks are well known to suffer from. The work described in this thesis has been dedicated to the investigation of continual learning and solutions to mitigate the forgetting phenomena in neural networks. To approach the continual learning problem, we first assume a task incremental setting where tasks are received one at a time and data from previous tasks are not stored. Since the task incremental setting can't be assumed in all continual learning scenarios, we also study the more general online continual setting. We consider an infinite stream of data drawn from a non-stationary distribution with a supervisory or self-supervisory training signal. The proposed methods in this thesis have tackled important aspects of continual learning. They were evaluated on different benchmarks and over various learning sequences. Advances in the state of the art of continual learning have been shown and challenges for bringing continual learning into application were critically identified.

This paper introduces an updated version of the well-known Virtual KITTI dataset which consists of 5 sequence clones from the KITTI tracking benchmark. In addition, the dataset provides different variants of these sequences such as modified weather conditions (e.g. fog, rain) or modified camera configurations (e.g. rotated by 15 degrees). For each sequence, we provide multiple sets of images containing RGB, depth, class segmentation, instance segmentation, flow, and scene flow data. Camera parameters and poses as well as vehicle locations are available as well. In order to showcase some of the dataset's capabilities, we ran multiple relevant experiments using state-of-the-art algorithms from the field of autonomous driving. The dataset is available for download at https://europe.naverlabs.com/Research/Computer-Vision/Proxy-Virtual-Worlds.

Neural networks are very effective when trained on large datasets for a large number of iterations. However, when they are trained on non-stationary streams of data and in an online fashion, their performance is reduced (1) by the online setup, which limits the availability of data, (2) due to catastrophic forgetting because of the non-stationary nature of the data. Furthermore, several recent works (Caccia et al., 2022; Lange et al., 2023) arXiv:2205.13452 showed that replay methods used in continual learning suffer from the stability gap, encountered when evaluating the model continually (rather than only on task boundaries). In this article, we study the effect of model ensembling as a way to improve performance and stability in online continual learning. We notice that naively ensembling models coming from a variety of training tasks increases the performance in online continual learning considerably. Starting from this observation, and drawing inspirations from semi-supervised learning ensembling methods, we use a lightweight temporal ensemble that computes the exponential moving average of the weights (EMA) at test time, and show that it can drastically increase the performance and stability when used in combination with several methods from the literature.

For robots to operate in general environments like households, they must be able to perform non-prehensile manipulation actions such as toppling and rolling to manipulate ungraspable objects. However, prior works on non-prehensile manipulation cannot yet generalize across environments with diverse geometries. The main challenge lies in adapting to varying environmental constraints: within a cabinet, the robot must avoid walls and ceilings; to lift objects to the top of a step, the robot must account for the step's pose and extent. While deep reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated impressive success in non-prehensile manipulation, accounting for such variability presents a challenge for the generalist policy, as it must learn diverse strategies for each new combination of constraints. To address this, we propose a modular and reconfigurable architecture that adaptively reconfigures network modules based on task requirements. To capture the geometric variability in environments, we extend the contact-based object representation (CORN) to environment geometries, and propose a procedural algorithm for generating diverse environments to train our agent. Taken together, the resulting policy can zero-shot transfer to novel real-world environments and objects despite training entirely within a simulator. We additionally release a simulation-based benchmark featuring nine digital twins of real-world scenes with 353 objects to facilitate non-prehensile manipulation research in realistic domains.

From a viewpoint of stochastic thermodynamics, we derive equations that describe the collective dynamics near the order-disorder transition in the globally coupled XY model and near the synchronization-desynchronization transition in the Kuramoto model. A new way of thinking is to interpret the deterministic time evolution of a macroscopic variable as an external operation to a thermodynamic system. We then find that the irreversible work determines the equation for the collective dynamics. When analyzing the Kuramoto model, we employ a generalized concept of irreversible work which originates from a non-equilibrium identity associated with steady state thermodynamics.

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated as a non-equilibrium thermodynamic process, where price impact represents dissipative work and market noise plays the role of thermal fluctuations. The paper proves a Financial Second Law: under general convex impact functionals, any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit. This structural constraint is complemented by a fluctuation theorem that bounds the probability of profitable cycles in terms of dissipated work and market volatility. The framework introduces a statistical ensemble of trading strategies governed by a Gibbs measure, leading to a free energy decomposition that connects expected cost, strategy entropy, and a market temperature parameter. The framework provides rigorous, testable inequalities linking microstructural impact to macroscopic no-arbitrage conditions, offering a novel physics-inspired perspective on market efficiency. The paper derives explicit analytical results for prototypical trading strategies and discusses empirical validation protocols.

The quality of generative models depends on the quality of the data they are trained on. Creating large-scale, high-quality datasets is often expensive and sometimes impossible, e.g. in certain scientific applications where there is no access to clean data due to physical or instrumentation constraints. Ambient Diffusion and related frameworks train diffusion models with solely corrupted data (which are usually cheaper to acquire) but ambient models significantly underperform models trained on clean data. We study this phenomenon at scale by training more than 80 models on data with different corruption levels across three datasets ranging from 30,000 to approx 1.3M samples. We show that it is impossible, at these sample sizes, to match the performance of models trained on clean data when only training on noisy data. Yet, a combination of a small set of clean data (e.g.~10% of the total dataset) and a large set of highly noisy data suffices to reach the performance of models trained solely on similar-size datasets of clean data, and in particular to achieve near state-of-the-art performance. We provide theoretical evidence for our findings by developing novel sample complexity bounds for learning from Gaussian Mixtures with heterogeneous variances. Our theoretical model suggests that, for large enough datasets, the effective marginal utility of a noisy sample is exponentially worse than that of a clean sample. Providing a small set of clean samples can significantly reduce the sample size requirements for noisy data, as we also observe in our experiments.

We present new algorithms for optimizing non-smooth, non-convex stochastic objectives based on a novel analysis technique. This improves the current best-known complexity for finding a (delta,epsilon)-stationary point from O(epsilon^{-4}delta^{-1}) stochastic gradient queries to O(epsilon^{-3}delta^{-1}), which we also show to be optimal. Our primary technique is a reduction from non-smooth non-convex optimization to online learning, after which our results follow from standard regret bounds in online learning. For deterministic and second-order smooth objectives, applying more advanced optimistic online learning techniques enables a new complexity of O(epsilon^{-1.5}delta^{-0.5}). Our techniques also recover all optimal or best-known results for finding epsilon stationary points of smooth or second-order smooth objectives in both stochastic and deterministic settings.

Benchmarking vision-based driving policies is challenging. On one hand, open-loop evaluation with real data is easy, but these results do not reflect closed-loop performance. On the other, closed-loop evaluation is possible in simulation, but is hard to scale due to its significant computational demands. Further, the simulators available today exhibit a large domain gap to real data. This has resulted in an inability to draw clear conclusions from the rapidly growing body of research on end-to-end autonomous driving. In this paper, we present NAVSIM, a middle ground between these evaluation paradigms, where we use large datasets in combination with a non-reactive simulator to enable large-scale real-world benchmarking. Specifically, we gather simulation-based metrics, such as progress and time to collision, by unrolling bird's eye view abstractions of the test scenes for a short simulation horizon. Our simulation is non-reactive, i.e., the evaluated policy and environment do not influence each other. As we demonstrate empirically, this decoupling allows open-loop metric computation while being better aligned with closed-loop evaluations than traditional displacement errors. NAVSIM enabled a new competition held at CVPR 2024, where 143 teams submitted 463 entries, resulting in several new insights. On a large set of challenging scenarios, we observe that simple methods with moderate compute requirements such as TransFuser can match recent large-scale end-to-end driving architectures such as UniAD. Our modular framework can potentially be extended with new datasets, data curation strategies, and metrics, and will be continually maintained to host future challenges. Our code is available at https://github.com/autonomousvision/navsim.

This paper presents a novel virus propagation model using NetLogo. The model allows agents to move across multiple sites using different routes. Routes can be configured, enabled for mobility and (un)locked down independently. Similarly, locations can also be (un)locked down independently. Agents can get infected, propagate their infections to others, can take precautions against infection and also subsequently recover from infection. This model contains certain features that are not present in existing models. The model may be used for educational and research purposes, and the code is made available as open source. This model may also provide a broader framework for more detailed simulations. The results presented are only to demonstrate the model functionalities and do not serve any other purpose.

Developing models and algorithms to predict nonstationary time series is a long standing statistical problem. It is crucial for many applications, in particular for fashion or retail industries, to make optimal inventory decisions and avoid massive wastes. By tracking thousands of fashion trends on social media with state-of-the-art computer vision approaches, we propose a new model for fashion time series forecasting. Our contribution is twofold. We first provide publicly a dataset gathering 10000 weekly fashion time series. As influence dynamics are the key of emerging trend detection, we associate with each time series an external weak signal representing behaviours of influencers. Secondly, to leverage such a dataset, we propose a new hybrid forecasting model. Our approach combines per-time-series parametric models with seasonal components and a global recurrent neural network to include sporadic external signals. This hybrid model provides state-of-the-art results on the proposed fashion dataset, on the weekly time series of the M4 competition, and illustrates the benefit of the contribution of external weak signals.

Living systems face both environmental complexity and limited access to free-energy resources. Survival under these conditions requires a control system that can activate, or deploy, available perception and action resources in a context specific way. We show here that when systems are described as executing active inference driven by the free-energy principle (and hence can be considered Bayesian prediction-error minimizers), their control flow systems can always be represented as tensor networks (TNs). We show how TNs as control systems can be implmented within the general framework of quantum topological neural networks, and discuss the implications of these results for modeling biological systems at multiple scales.

In this paper, we propose a method to partially mimic natural intelligence for the problem of lifelong learning representations that are compatible. We take the perspective of a learning agent that is interested in recognizing object instances in an open dynamic universe in a way in which any update to its internal feature representation does not render the features in the gallery unusable for visual search. We refer to this learning problem as Compatible Lifelong Learning Representations (CL2R) as it considers compatible representation learning within the lifelong learning paradigm. We identify stationarity as the property that the feature representation is required to hold to achieve compatibility and propose a novel training procedure that encourages local and global stationarity on the learned representation. Due to stationarity, the statistical properties of the learned features do not change over time, making them interoperable with previously learned features. Extensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets show that our CL2R training procedure outperforms alternative baselines and state-of-the-art methods. We also provide novel metrics to specifically evaluate compatible representation learning under catastrophic forgetting in various sequential learning tasks. Code at https://github.com/NiccoBiondi/CompatibleLifelongRepresentation.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

While reinforcement learning algorithms can learn effective policies for complex tasks, these policies are often brittle to even minor task variations, especially when variations are not explicitly provided during training. One natural approach to this problem is to train agents with manually specified variation in the training task or environment. However, this may be infeasible in practical situations, either because making perturbations is not possible, or because it is unclear how to choose suitable perturbation strategies without sacrificing performance. The key insight of this work is that learning diverse behaviors for accomplishing a task can directly lead to behavior that generalizes to varying environments, without needing to perform explicit perturbations during training. By identifying multiple solutions for the task in a single environment during training, our approach can generalize to new situations by abandoning solutions that are no longer effective and adopting those that are. We theoretically characterize a robustness set of environments that arises from our algorithm and empirically find that our diversity-driven approach can extrapolate to various changes in the environment and task.

We present The Matrix, the first foundational realistic world simulator capable of generating continuous 720p high-fidelity real-scene video streams with real-time, responsive control in both first- and third-person perspectives, enabling immersive exploration of richly dynamic environments. Trained on limited supervised data from AAA games like Forza Horizon 5 and Cyberpunk 2077, complemented by large-scale unsupervised footage from real-world settings like Tokyo streets, The Matrix allows users to traverse diverse terrains -- deserts, grasslands, water bodies, and urban landscapes -- in continuous, uncut hour-long sequences. Operating at 16 FPS, the system supports real-time interactivity and demonstrates zero-shot generalization, translating virtual game environments to real-world contexts where collecting continuous movement data is often infeasible. For example, The Matrix can simulate a BMW X3 driving through an office setting--an environment present in neither gaming data nor real-world sources. This approach showcases the potential of AAA game data to advance robust world models, bridging the gap between simulations and real-world applications in scenarios with limited data.

Human intelligence emerged through the process of natural selection and evolution on Earth. We investigate what it would take to re-create this process in silico. While past work has often focused on low-level processes (such as simulating physics or chemistry), we instead take a more targeted approach, aiming to evolve agents that can accumulate open-ended culture and technologies across generations. Towards this, we present JaxLife: an artificial life simulator in which embodied agents, parameterized by deep neural networks, must learn to survive in an expressive world containing programmable systems. First, we describe the environment and show that it can facilitate meaningful Turing-complete computation. We then analyze the evolved emergent agents' behavior, such as rudimentary communication protocols, agriculture, and tool use. Finally, we investigate how complexity scales with the amount of compute used. We believe JaxLife takes a step towards studying evolved behavior in more open-ended simulations. Our code is available at https://github.com/luchris429/JaxLife

The friction coefficient of a particle can depend on its position as it does when the particle is near a wall. We formulate the dynamics of particles with such state-dependent friction coefficients in terms of a general Langevin equation with multiplicative noise, whose evaluation requires the introduction of specific rules. Two common conventions, the Ito and the Stratonovich, provide alternative rules for evaluation of the noise, but other conventions are possible. We show the requirement that a particle's distribution function approach the Boltzmann distribution at long times dictates that a drift term must be added to the Langevin equation. This drift term is proportional to the derivative of the diffusion coefficient times a factor that depends on the convention used to define the multiplicative noise. We explore the consequences of this result in a number examples with spatially varying diffusion coefficients. We also derive path integral representations for arbitrary interpretation of the noise, and use it in a perturbative study of correlations in a simple system.

A reply to Drake (2013) "Early warning signals of stochastic switching" http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.0686

Mobile robots are increasingly deployed in unstructured environments where obstacles and objects are movable. Navigation in such environments is known as interactive navigation, where task completion requires not only avoiding obstacles but also strategic interactions with movable objects. Non-prehensile interactive navigation focuses on non-grasping interaction strategies, such as pushing, rather than relying on prehensile manipulation. Despite a growing body of research in this field, most solutions are evaluated using case-specific setups, limiting reproducibility and cross-comparison. In this paper, we present Bench-NPIN, the first comprehensive benchmark for non-prehensile interactive navigation. Bench-NPIN includes multiple components: 1) a comprehensive range of simulated environments for non-prehensile interactive navigation tasks, including navigating a maze with movable obstacles, autonomous ship navigation in icy waters, box delivery, and area clearing, each with varying levels of complexity; 2) a set of evaluation metrics that capture unique aspects of interactive navigation, such as efficiency, interaction effort, and partial task completion; and 3) demonstrations using Bench-NPIN to evaluate example implementations of established baselines across environments. Bench-NPIN is an open-source Python library with a modular design. The code, documentation, and trained models can be found at https://github.com/IvanIZ/BenchNPIN.

Environment understanding in egocentric videos is an important step for applications like robotics, augmented reality and assistive technologies. These videos are characterized by dynamic interactions and a strong dependence on the wearer engagement with the environment. Traditional approaches often focus on isolated clips or fail to integrate rich semantic and geometric information, limiting scene comprehension. We introduce Dynamic Image-Video Feature Fields (DIV FF), a framework that decomposes the egocentric scene into persistent, dynamic, and actor based components while integrating both image and video language features. Our model enables detailed segmentation, captures affordances, understands the surroundings and maintains consistent understanding over time. DIV-FF outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly in dynamically evolving scenarios, demonstrating its potential to advance long term, spatio temporal scene understanding.

Controlling a robot based on physics-consistent dynamic models, such as Deep Lagrangian Networks (DeLaN), can improve the generalizability and interpretability of the resulting behavior. However, in complex environments, the number of objects to potentially interact with is vast, and their physical properties are often uncertain. This complexity makes it infeasible to employ a single global model. Therefore, we need to resort to online system identification of context-aware models that capture only the currently relevant aspects of the environment. While physical principles such as the conservation of energy may not hold across varying contexts, ensuring physical plausibility for any individual context-aware model can still be highly desirable, particularly when using it for receding horizon control methods such as model predictive control (MPC). Hence, in this work, we extend DeLaN to make it context-aware, combine it with a recurrent network for online system identification, and integrate it with an MPC for adaptive, physics-consistent control. We also combine DeLaN with a residual dynamics model to leverage the fact that a nominal model of the robot is typically available. We evaluate our method on a 7-DOF robot arm for trajectory tracking under varying loads. Our method reduces the end-effector tracking error by 39%, compared to a 21% improvement achieved by a baseline that uses an extended Kalman filter.

Simulated virtual environments have been widely used to learn robotic agents that perform daily household tasks. These environments encourage research progress by far, but often provide limited object interactability, visual appearance different from real-world environments, or relatively smaller environment sizes. This prevents the learned models in the virtual scenes from being readily deployable. To bridge the gap between these learning environments and deploying (i.e., real) environments, we propose the ReALFRED benchmark that employs real-world scenes, objects, and room layouts to learn agents to complete household tasks by understanding free-form language instructions and interacting with objects in large, multi-room and 3D-captured scenes. Specifically, we extend the ALFRED benchmark with updates for larger environmental spaces with smaller visual domain gaps. With ReALFRED, we analyze previously crafted methods for the ALFRED benchmark and observe that they consistently yield lower performance in all metrics, encouraging the community to develop methods in more realistic environments. Our code and data are publicly available.

Humans naturally adapt to diverse environments by learning underlying rules across worlds with different dynamics, observations, and reward structures. In contrast, existing agents typically demonstrate improvements via self-evolving within a single domain, implicitly assuming a fixed environment distribution. Cross-environment learning has remained largely unmeasured: there is no standard collection of controllable, heterogeneous environments, nor a unified way to represent how agents learn. We address these gaps in two steps. First, we propose AutoEnv, an automated framework that treats environments as factorizable distributions over transitions, observations, and rewards, enabling low-cost (4.12 USD on average) generation of heterogeneous worlds. Using AutoEnv, we construct AutoEnv-36, a dataset of 36 environments with 358 validated levels, on which seven language models achieve 12-49% normalized reward, demonstrating the challenge of AutoEnv-36. Second, we formalize agent learning as a component-centric process driven by three stages of Selection, Optimization, and Evaluation applied to an improvable agent component. Using this formulation, we design eight learning methods and evaluate them on AutoEnv-36. Empirically, the gain of any single learning method quickly decrease as the number of environments increases, revealing that fixed learning methods do not scale across heterogeneous environments. Environment-adaptive selection of learning methods substantially improves performance but exhibits diminishing returns as the method space expands. These results highlight both the necessity and the current limitations of agent learning for scalable cross-environment generalization, and position AutoEnv and AutoEnv-36 as a testbed for studying cross-environment agent learning. The code is avaiable at https://github.com/FoundationAgents/AutoEnv.

The solar wind is a medium characterized by strong turbulence and significant field fluctuations on various scales. Recent observations have revealed that magnetic turbulence exhibits a self-similar behavior. Similarly, high-resolution measurements of the proton density have shown comparable characteristics, prompting several studies into the multifractal properties of these density fluctuations. In this work, we show that low-resolution observations of the solar wind proton density over time, recorded by various spacecraft at Lagrange point L1, also exhibit non-linear and multifractal structures. The novelty of our study lies in the fact that this is the first systematic analysis of solar wind proton density using low-resolution (hourly) data collected by multiple spacecraft at the L1 Lagrange point over a span of 17 years. Furthermore, we interpret our results within the framework of non-extensive statistical mechanics, which appears to be consistent with the observed nonlinear behavior. Based on the data, we successfully validate the q-triplet predicted by non-extensive statistical theory. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the most rigorous and systematic validation to date of the q-triplet in the solar wind.

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) collect and pseudo-label terabytes of multi-modal data localized to HD maps during normal fleet testing. However, identifying interesting and safety-critical scenarios from uncurated driving logs remains a significant challenge. Traditional scenario mining techniques are error-prone and prohibitively time-consuming, often relying on hand-crafted structured queries. In this work, we revisit spatio-temporal scenario mining through the lens of recent vision-language models (VLMs) to detect whether a described scenario occurs in a driving log and, if so, precisely localize it in both time and space. To address this problem, we introduce RefAV, a large-scale dataset of 10,000 diverse natural language queries that describe complex multi-agent interactions relevant to motion planning derived from 1000 driving logs in the Argoverse 2 Sensor dataset. We evaluate several referential multi-object trackers and present an empirical analysis of our baselines. Notably, we find that naively repurposing off-the-shelf VLMs yields poor performance, suggesting that scenario mining presents unique challenges. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/CainanD/RefAV/ and https://argoverse.github.io/user-guide/tasks/scenario_mining.html

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn from historical data without requiring (costly) access to the environment. To facilitate offline RL research, we previously introduced NeoRL, which highlighted that datasets from real-world tasks are often conservative and limited. With years of experience applying offline RL to various domains, we have identified additional real-world challenges. These include extremely conservative data distributions produced by deployed control systems, delayed action effects caused by high-latency transitions, external factors arising from the uncontrollable variance of transitions, and global safety constraints that are difficult to evaluate during the decision-making process. These challenges are underrepresented in previous benchmarks but frequently occur in real-world tasks. To address this, we constructed the extended Near Real-World Offline RL Benchmark (NeoRL-2), which consists of 7 datasets from 7 simulated tasks along with their corresponding evaluation simulators. Benchmarking results from state-of-the-art offline RL approaches demonstrate that current methods often struggle to outperform the data-collection behavior policy, highlighting the need for more effective methods. We hope NeoRL-2 will accelerate the development of reinforcement learning algorithms for real-world applications. The benchmark project page is available at https://github.com/polixir/NeoRL2.

Deep learning has become an area of interest in most scientific areas, including physical sciences. Modern networks apply real-valued transformations on the data. Particularly, convolutions in convolutional neural networks discard phase information entirely. Many deterministic signals, such as seismic data or electrical signals, contain significant information in the phase of the signal. We explore complex-valued deep convolutional networks to leverage non-linear feature maps. Seismic data commonly has a lowcut filter applied, to attenuate noise from ocean waves and similar long wavelength contributions. Discarding the phase information leads to low-frequency aliasing analogous to the Nyquist-Shannon theorem for high frequencies. In non-stationary data, the phase content can stabilize training and improve the generalizability of neural networks. While it has been shown that phase content can be restored in deep neural networks, we show how including phase information in feature maps improves both training and inference from deterministic physical data. Furthermore, we show that the reduction of parameters in a complex network outperforms larger real-valued networks.

Neural networks often suffer from catastrophic interference (CI): performance on previously learned tasks drops off significantly when learning a new task. This contrasts strongly with humans, who can sequentially learn new tasks without appreciably forgetting previous tasks. Prior work has explored various techniques for mitigating CI such as regularization, rehearsal, generative replay, and distillation methods. The current work takes a different approach, one guided by cognitive science research showing that in naturalistic environments, the probability of encountering a task decreases as a power-law of the time since it was last performed. We argue that a realistic evaluation of techniques for the mitigation of CI should be performed in simulated naturalistic learning environments. Thus, we evaluate the extent of mitigation of CI when training simple rehearsal-based methods in power-law environments similar to the ones humans face. Our work explores this novel rehearsal-based approach for a domain-incremental task: learning permutations in the MNIST task. We compare our rehearsal environment with other baselines to show its efficacy in promoting continual learning. Additionally, we investigate whether this environment shows forward facilitation, i.e., faster learning of later tasks. Next, we explore the robustness of our learning environment to the number of tasks, model size, and amount of data rehearsed after each task. Notably, our results show that the performance is comparable or superior to that of models trained using popular regularization methods and also to rehearsals in non-power-law environments. The benefits of this training paradigm include simplicity and the lack of a need for extra neural circuitry. In addition, because our method is orthogonal to other methods, future research can combine training in power-law environments with other continual learning mechanisms.

In this work we create agents that can perform well beyond a single, individual task, that exhibit much wider generalisation of behaviour to a massive, rich space of challenges. We define a universe of tasks within an environment domain and demonstrate the ability to train agents that are generally capable across this vast space and beyond. The environment is natively multi-agent, spanning the continuum of competitive, cooperative, and independent games, which are situated within procedurally generated physical 3D worlds. The resulting space is exceptionally diverse in terms of the challenges posed to agents, and as such, even measuring the learning progress of an agent is an open research problem. We propose an iterative notion of improvement between successive generations of agents, rather than seeking to maximise a singular objective, allowing us to quantify progress despite tasks being incomparable in terms of achievable rewards. We show that through constructing an open-ended learning process, which dynamically changes the training task distributions and training objectives such that the agent never stops learning, we achieve consistent learning of new behaviours. The resulting agent is able to score reward in every one of our humanly solvable evaluation levels, with behaviour generalising to many held-out points in the universe of tasks. Examples of this zero-shot generalisation include good performance on Hide and Seek, Capture the Flag, and Tag. Through analysis and hand-authored probe tasks we characterise the behaviour of our agent, and find interesting emergent heuristic behaviours such as trial-and-error experimentation, simple tool use, option switching, and cooperation. Finally, we demonstrate that the general capabilities of this agent could unlock larger scale transfer of behaviour through cheap finetuning.

We study the problem of nonepisodic reinforcement learning (RL) for nonlinear dynamical systems, where the system dynamics are unknown and the RL agent has to learn from a single trajectory, i.e., without resets. We propose Nonepisodic Optimistic RL (NeoRL), an approach based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. NeoRL uses well-calibrated probabilistic models and plans optimistically w.r.t. the epistemic uncertainty about the unknown dynamics. Under continuity and bounded energy assumptions on the system, we provide a first-of-its-kind regret bound of O(Gamma_T T) for general nonlinear systems with Gaussian process dynamics. We compare NeoRL to other baselines on several deep RL environments and empirically demonstrate that NeoRL achieves the optimal average cost while incurring the least regret.

The fields of Origin of Life and Artificial Life both question what life is and how it emerges from a distinct set of "pre-life" dynamics. One common feature of most substrates where life emerges is a marked shift in dynamics when self-replication appears. While there are some hypotheses regarding how self-replicators arose in nature, we know very little about the general dynamics, computational principles, and necessary conditions for self-replicators to emerge. This is especially true on "computational substrates" where interactions involve logical, mathematical, or programming rules. In this paper we take a step towards understanding how self-replicators arise by studying several computational substrates based on various simple programming languages and machine instruction sets. We show that when random, non self-replicating programs are placed in an environment lacking any explicit fitness landscape, self-replicators tend to arise. We demonstrate how this occurs due to random interactions and self-modification, and can happen with and without background random mutations. We also show how increasingly complex dynamics continue to emerge following the rise of self-replicators. Finally, we show a counterexample of a minimalistic programming language where self-replicators are possible, but so far have not been observed to arise.

Recent developments in the field of model-based RL have proven successful in a range of environments, especially ones where planning is essential. However, such successes have been limited to deterministic fully-observed environments. We present a new approach that handles stochastic and partially-observable environments. Our key insight is to use discrete autoencoders to capture the multiple possible effects of an action in a stochastic environment. We use a stochastic variant of Monte Carlo tree search to plan over both the agent's actions and the discrete latent variables representing the environment's response. Our approach significantly outperforms an offline version of MuZero on a stochastic interpretation of chess where the opponent is considered part of the environment. We also show that our approach scales to DeepMind Lab, a first-person 3D environment with large visual observations and partial observability.

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that the observed nonlinear dynamics in these coupled systems rests within either underlying human or natural processes, rather than the rates at which they interact. Using adoption of agricultural diversification practices as a case study, we show how two stable management paradigms (one dominated by conventional, homogeneous practices, the other by diversified practices) can emerge purely from temporal feedbacks between human decisions and ecological responses. We explore how this temporal mechanism of tipping points provides insight into designing more effective interventions that promote farmers transitions towards sustainable agriculture. Moreover, our flexible modeling framework could be applied to other cases to provide insight into numerous questions in social-ecological systems research and environmental policy.

Dynamical systems with complex behaviours, e.g. immune system cells interacting with a pathogen, are commonly modelled by splitting the behaviour into different regimes, or modes, each with simpler dynamics, and then learning the switching behaviour from one mode to another. Switching Dynamical Systems (SDS) are a powerful tool that automatically discovers these modes and mode-switching behaviour from time series data. While effective, these methods focus on independent objects, where the modes of one object are independent of the modes of the other objects. In this paper, we focus on the more general interacting object setting for switching dynamical systems, where the per-object dynamics also depends on an unknown and dynamically changing subset of other objects and their modes. To this end, we propose a novel graph-based approach for switching dynamical systems, GRAph Switching dynamical Systems (GRASS), in which we use a dynamic graph to characterize interactions between objects and learn both intra-object and inter-object mode-switching behaviour. We introduce two new datasets for this setting, a synthesized ODE-driven particles dataset and a real-world Salsa Couple Dancing dataset. Experiments show that GRASS can consistently outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods.

Effective planning in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) and model-predictive control (MPC) relies on the accuracy of the learned dynamics model. In many instances of MBRL and MPC, this model is assumed to be stationary and is periodically re-trained from scratch on state transition experience collected from the beginning of environment interactions. This implies that the time required to train the dynamics model - and the pause required between plan executions - grows linearly with the size of the collected experience. We argue that this is too slow for lifelong robot learning and propose HyperCRL, a method that continually learns the encountered dynamics in a sequence of tasks using task-conditional hypernetworks. Our method has three main attributes: first, it includes dynamics learning sessions that do not revisit training data from previous tasks, so it only needs to store the most recent fixed-size portion of the state transition experience; second, it uses fixed-capacity hypernetworks to represent non-stationary and task-aware dynamics; third, it outperforms existing continual learning alternatives that rely on fixed-capacity networks, and does competitively with baselines that remember an ever increasing coreset of past experience. We show that HyperCRL is effective in continual model-based reinforcement learning in robot locomotion and manipulation scenarios, such as tasks involving pushing and door opening. Our project website with videos is at this link https://rvl.cs.toronto.edu/blog/2020/hypercrl

Given sparse observations of buoy velocities, oceanographers are interested in reconstructing ocean currents away from the buoys and identifying divergences in a current vector field. As a first and modular step, we focus on the time-stationary case - for instance, by restricting to short time periods. Since we expect current velocity to be a continuous but highly non-linear function of spatial location, Gaussian processes (GPs) offer an attractive model. But we show that applying a GP with a standard stationary kernel directly to buoy data can struggle at both current reconstruction and divergence identification, due to some physically unrealistic prior assumptions. To better reflect known physical properties of currents, we propose to instead put a standard stationary kernel on the divergence and curl-free components of a vector field obtained through a Helmholtz decomposition. We show that, because this decomposition relates to the original vector field just via mixed partial derivatives, we can still perform inference given the original data with only a small constant multiple of additional computational expense. We illustrate the benefits of our method with theory and experiments on synthetic and real ocean data.