Daily Papers

With the growing use of language models (LMs) in clinical environments, there is an immediate need to evaluate the accuracy and safety of LM-generated medical text. Currently, such evaluation relies solely on manual physician review. However, detecting errors in LM-generated text is challenging because 1) manual review is costly and 2) expert-composed reference outputs are often unavailable in real-world settings. While the "LM-as-judge" paradigm (a LM evaluating another LM) offers scalable evaluation, even frontier LMs can miss subtle but clinically significant errors. To address these challenges, we propose MedVAL, a self-supervised framework that leverages synthetic data to train evaluator LMs to assess whether LM-generated medical outputs are factually consistent with inputs, without requiring physician labels or reference outputs. To evaluate LM performance, we introduce MedVAL-Bench, a dataset containing 840 outputs annotated by physicians, following a physician-defined taxonomy of risk levels and error categories. Across 6 diverse medical tasks and 10 state-of-the-art LMs spanning open-source, proprietary, and medically adapted models, MedVAL fine-tuning significantly improves (p < 0.001) alignment with physicians on both seen and unseen tasks, increasing average F1 scores from 66% to 83%, with per-sample safety classification scores up to 86%. MedVAL improves the performance of even the best-performing proprietary LM (GPT-4o) by 8%. To support a scalable, risk-aware pathway towards clinical integration, we open-source the 1) codebase ( https://github.com/StanfordMIMI/MedVAL ), 2) MedVAL-Bench ( https://huggingface.co/datasets/stanfordmimi/MedVAL-Bench ), and 3) MedVAL-4B ( https://huggingface.co/stanfordmimi/MedVAL-4B ), the best-performing open-source LM. Our research provides the first evidence of LMs approaching expert-level validation ability for medical text.

Clinical calculators play a vital role in healthcare by offering accurate evidence-based predictions for various purposes such as prognosis. Nevertheless, their widespread utilization is frequently hindered by usability challenges, poor dissemination, and restricted functionality. Augmenting large language models with extensive collections of clinical calculators presents an opportunity to overcome these obstacles and improve workflow efficiency, but the scalability of the manual curation process poses a significant challenge. In response, we introduce AgentMD, a novel language agent capable of curating and applying clinical calculators across various clinical contexts. Using the published literature, AgentMD has automatically curated a collection of 2,164 diverse clinical calculators with executable functions and structured documentation, collectively named RiskCalcs. Manual evaluations show that RiskCalcs tools achieve an accuracy of over 80% on three quality metrics. At inference time, AgentMD can automatically select and apply the relevant RiskCalcs tools given any patient description. On the newly established RiskQA benchmark, AgentMD significantly outperforms chain-of-thought prompting with GPT-4 (87.7% vs. 40.9% in accuracy). Additionally, we also applied AgentMD to real-world clinical notes for analyzing both population-level and risk-level patient characteristics. In summary, our study illustrates the utility of language agents augmented with clinical calculators for healthcare analytics and patient care.

Knowing when to answer or refuse is crucial for safe and reliable decision-making language agents. Although prior work has introduced refusal strategies to boost LMs' reliability, how these models adapt their decisions to different risk levels remains underexplored. We formalize the task of risk-aware decision-making, expose critical weaknesses in existing LMs, and propose skill-decomposition solutions to mitigate them. Our findings show that even cutting-edge LMs--both regular and reasoning models--still require explicit prompt chaining to handle the task effectively, revealing the challenges that must be overcome to achieve truly autonomous decision-making agents.

State-of-the-art Text-to-Image models like Stable Diffusion and DALLEcdot2 are revolutionizing how people generate visual content. At the same time, society has serious concerns about how adversaries can exploit such models to generate unsafe images. In this work, we focus on demystifying the generation of unsafe images and hateful memes from Text-to-Image models. We first construct a typology of unsafe images consisting of five categories (sexually explicit, violent, disturbing, hateful, and political). Then, we assess the proportion of unsafe images generated by four advanced Text-to-Image models using four prompt datasets. We find that these models can generate a substantial percentage of unsafe images; across four models and four prompt datasets, 14.56% of all generated images are unsafe. When comparing the four models, we find different risk levels, with Stable Diffusion being the most prone to generating unsafe content (18.92% of all generated images are unsafe). Given Stable Diffusion's tendency to generate more unsafe content, we evaluate its potential to generate hateful meme variants if exploited by an adversary to attack a specific individual or community. We employ three image editing methods, DreamBooth, Textual Inversion, and SDEdit, which are supported by Stable Diffusion. Our evaluation result shows that 24% of the generated images using DreamBooth are hateful meme variants that present the features of the original hateful meme and the target individual/community; these generated images are comparable to hateful meme variants collected from the real world. Overall, our results demonstrate that the danger of large-scale generation of unsafe images is imminent. We discuss several mitigating measures, such as curating training data, regulating prompts, and implementing safety filters, and encourage better safeguard tools to be developed to prevent unsafe generation.

LLM-based agents are becoming increasingly proficient at solving web-based tasks. With this capability comes a greater risk of misuse for malicious purposes, such as posting misinformation in an online forum or selling illicit substances on a website. To evaluate these risks, we propose SafeArena, the first benchmark to focus on the deliberate misuse of web agents. SafeArena comprises 250 safe and 250 harmful tasks across four websites. We classify the harmful tasks into five harm categories -- misinformation, illegal activity, harassment, cybercrime, and social bias, designed to assess realistic misuses of web agents. We evaluate leading LLM-based web agents, including GPT-4o, Claude-3.5 Sonnet, Qwen-2-VL 72B, and Llama-3.2 90B, on our benchmark. To systematically assess their susceptibility to harmful tasks, we introduce the Agent Risk Assessment framework that categorizes agent behavior across four risk levels. We find agents are surprisingly compliant with malicious requests, with GPT-4o and Qwen-2 completing 34.7% and 27.3% of harmful requests, respectively. Our findings highlight the urgent need for safety alignment procedures for web agents. Our benchmark is available here: https://safearena.github.io

This paper reviews Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence (TAI) and its various definitions. Considering the principles respected in any society, TAI is often characterized by a few attributes, some of which have led to confusion in regulatory or engineering contexts. We argue against using terms such as Responsible or Ethical AI as substitutes for TAI. And to help clarify any confusion, we suggest leaving them behind. Given the subjectivity and complexity inherent in TAI, developing a universal framework is deemed infeasible. Instead, we advocate for approaches centered on addressing key attributes and properties such as fairness, bias, risk, security, explainability, and reliability. We examine the ongoing regulatory landscape, with a focus on initiatives in the EU, China, and the USA. We recognize that differences in AI regulations based on geopolitical and geographical reasons pose an additional challenge for multinational companies. We identify risk as a core factor in AI regulation and TAI. For example, as outlined in the EU-AI Act, organizations must gauge the risk level of their AI products to act accordingly (or risk hefty fines). We compare modalities of TAI implementation and how multiple cross-functional teams are engaged in the overall process. Thus, a brute force approach for enacting TAI renders its efficiency and agility, moot. To address this, we introduce our framework Set-Formalize-Measure-Act (SFMA). Our solution highlights the importance of transforming TAI-aware metrics, drivers of TAI, stakeholders, and business/legal requirements into actual benchmarks or tests. Finally, over-regulation driven by panic of powerful AI models can, in fact, harm TAI too. Based on GitHub user-activity data, in 2023, AI open-source projects rose to top projects by contributor account. Enabling innovation in TAI hinges on the independent contributions of the open-source community.

Tool-using agents that act in the world need to be both useful and safe. Well-calibrated model confidences can be used to weigh the risk versus reward of potential actions, but prior work shows that many models are poorly calibrated. Inspired by interpretability literature exploring the internals of models, we propose a novel class of model-internal confidence estimators (MICE) to better assess confidence when calling tools. MICE first decodes from each intermediate layer of the language model using logitLens and then computes similarity scores between each layer's generation and the final output. These features are fed into a learned probabilistic classifier to assess confidence in the decoded output. On the simulated trial and error (STE) tool-calling dataset using Llama3 models, we find that MICE beats or matches the baselines on smoothed expected calibration error. Using MICE confidences to determine whether to call a tool significantly improves over strong baselines on a new metric, expected tool-calling utility. Further experiments show that MICE is sample-efficient, can generalize zero-shot to unseen APIs, and results in higher tool-calling utility in scenarios with varying risk levels. Our code is open source, available at https://github.com/microsoft/mice_for_cats.

Multimodal learning significantly benefits cancer survival prediction, especially the integration of pathological images and genomic data. Despite advantages of multimodal learning for cancer survival prediction, massive redundancy in multimodal data prevents it from extracting discriminative and compact information: (1) An extensive amount of intra-modal task-unrelated information blurs discriminability, especially for gigapixel whole slide images (WSIs) with many patches in pathology and thousands of pathways in genomic data, leading to an ``intra-modal redundancy" issue. (2) Duplicated information among modalities dominates the representation of multimodal data, which makes modality-specific information prone to being ignored, resulting in an ``inter-modal redundancy" issue. To address these, we propose a new framework, Prototypical Information Bottlenecking and Disentangling (PIBD), consisting of Prototypical Information Bottleneck (PIB) module for intra-modal redundancy and Prototypical Information Disentanglement (PID) module for inter-modal redundancy. Specifically, a variant of information bottleneck, PIB, is proposed to model prototypes approximating a bunch of instances for different risk levels, which can be used for selection of discriminative instances within modality. PID module decouples entangled multimodal data into compact distinct components: modality-common and modality-specific knowledge, under the guidance of the joint prototypical distribution. Extensive experiments on five cancer benchmark datasets demonstrated our superiority over other methods.

Understanding risk in autonomous driving requires not only perception and prediction, but also high-level reasoning about agent behavior and context. Current Vision Language Models (VLMs)-based methods primarily ground agents in static images and provide qualitative judgments, lacking the spatio-temporal reasoning needed to capture how risks evolve over time. To address this gap, we propose NuRisk, a comprehensive Visual Question Answering (VQA) dataset comprising 2,900 scenarios and 1.1 million agent-level samples, built on real-world data from nuScenes and Waymo, supplemented with safety-critical scenarios from the CommonRoad simulator. The dataset provides Bird-Eye-View (BEV) based sequential images with quantitative, agent-level risk annotations, enabling spatio-temporal reasoning. We benchmark well-known VLMs across different prompting techniques and find that they fail to perform explicit spatio-temporal reasoning, resulting in a peak accuracy of 33% at high latency. To address these shortcomings, our fine-tuned 7B VLM agent improves accuracy to 41% and reduces latency by 75%, demonstrating explicit spatio-temporal reasoning capabilities that proprietary models lacked. While this represents a significant step forward, the modest accuracy underscores the profound challenge of the task, establishing NuRisk as a critical benchmark for advancing spatio-temporal reasoning in autonomous driving.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly capable, security and safety evaluation are crucial. While current red teaming approaches have made strides in assessing LLM vulnerabilities, they often rely heavily on human input and lack comprehensive coverage of emerging attack vectors. This paper introduces AutoRedTeamer, a novel framework for fully automated, end-to-end red teaming against LLMs. AutoRedTeamer combines a multi-agent architecture with a memory-guided attack selection mechanism to enable continuous discovery and integration of new attack vectors. The dual-agent framework consists of a red teaming agent that can operate from high-level risk categories alone to generate and execute test cases and a strategy proposer agent that autonomously discovers and implements new attacks by analyzing recent research. This modular design allows AutoRedTeamer to adapt to emerging threats while maintaining strong performance on existing attack vectors. We demonstrate AutoRedTeamer's effectiveness across diverse evaluation settings, achieving 20% higher attack success rates on HarmBench against Llama-3.1-70B while reducing computational costs by 46% compared to existing approaches. AutoRedTeamer also matches the diversity of human-curated benchmarks in generating test cases, providing a comprehensive, scalable, and continuously evolving framework for evaluating the security of AI systems.

The Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) with extensive world knowledge have revitalized autonomous driving, particularly in reasoning tasks within perceivable regions. However, when faced with perception-limited areas (dynamic or static occlusion regions), MLLMs struggle to effectively integrate perception ability with world knowledge for reasoning. These perception-limited regions can conceal crucial safety information, especially for vulnerable road users. In this paper, we propose a framework, which aims to improve autonomous driving performance under perceptionlimited conditions by enhancing the integration of perception capabilities and world knowledge. Specifically, we propose a plug-and-play instruction-guided interaction module that bridges modality gaps and significantly reduces the input sequence length, allowing it to adapt effectively to multi-view video inputs. Furthermore, to better integrate world knowledge with driving-related tasks, we have collected and refined a large-scale multi-modal dataset that includes 2 million natural language QA pairs, 1.7 million grounding task data. To evaluate the model's utilization of world knowledge, we introduce an object-level risk assessment dataset comprising 200K QA pairs, where the questions necessitate multi-step reasoning leveraging world knowledge for resolution. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Globally, artificial intelligence (AI) implementation is growing, holding the capability to fundamentally alter organisational processes and decision making. Simultaneously, this brings a multitude of emergent risks to organisations, exposing vulnerabilities in their extant risk management frameworks. This necessitates a greater understanding of how organisations can position themselves in response. This issue is particularly pertinent within the financial sector with relatively mature AI applications matched with severe societal repercussions of potential risk events. Despite this, academic risk management literature is trailing behind the speed of AI implementation. Adopting a management perspective, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of AI risk management in organisations through an exploratory empirical investigation into these practices. In-depth insights are gained through interviews with nine practitioners from different organisations within the UK financial sector. Through examining areas of organisational convergence and divergence, the findings of this study unearth levels of risk management framework readiness and prevailing approaches to risk management at both a processual and organisational level. Whilst enhancing the developing literature concerning AI risk management within organisations, the study simultaneously offers a practical contribution, providing key areas of guidance for practitioners in the operational development of AI risk management frameworks.

Portfolio management is an essential component of investment strategy that aims to maximize returns while minimizing risk. This paper explores several portfolio management strategies, including asset allocation, diversification, active management, and risk management, and their importance in optimizing portfolio performance. These strategies are examined individually and in combination to demonstrate how they can help investors maximize alpha and minimize beta. Asset allocation is the process of dividing a portfolio among different asset classes to achieve the desired level of risk and return. Diversification involves spreading investments across different securities and sectors to minimize the impact of individual security or sector-specific risks. Active management involves security selection and risk management techniques to generate excess returns while minimizing losses. Risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders and options strategies, aim to minimize losses in adverse market conditions. The importance of combining these strategies for optimizing portfolio performance is emphasized in this paper. The proper implementation of these strategies can help investors achieve their investment goals over the long-term, while minimizing exposure to risks. A call to action for investors to utilize portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta is also provided.

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) agents is evolving rapidly, driven by the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to autonomously perform and refine tasks with human-like efficiency and adaptability. In this context, multi-agent collaboration has emerged as a promising approach, enabling multiple AI agents to work together to solve complex challenges. This study investigates the application of role-based multi-agent systems to support stock selection in equity research and portfolio management. We present a comprehensive analysis performed by a team of specialized agents and evaluate their stock-picking performance against established benchmarks under varying levels of risk tolerance. Furthermore, we examine the advantages and limitations of employing multi-agent frameworks in equity analysis, offering critical insights into their practical efficacy and implementation challenges.

Software architecture research relies on key architectural artifacts -- Software Architectures, Reference Architectures, and Architectural Frameworks -- that underpin the design and analysis of complex systems. Evaluating these artifacts is essential to assess tradeoffs and risks affecting quality attributes such as performance, modifiability, and security. Although methodologies like the Architecture Tradeoff Analysis Method (ATAM) support software architecture evaluation, their industrial focus misaligns with the IMRaD (Introduction, Methods, Results, Discussion) format prevalent in academic research, impeding transparency and reproducibility. Our prior work introduced the Architecture Tradeoff and Risk Analysis Framework (ATRAF), extending ATAM through three methods -- ATRAM, RATRAM, and AFTRAM, addressing all abstraction levels, using a unified, iterative four-phase spiral model. These phases -- Scenario and Requirements Gathering, Architectural Views and Scenario Realization, Attribute-Specific Analyses, and Sensitivity, Tradeoff, and Risk Analysis -- ensure traceability and coherence. This paper presents the ATRAF-driven IMRaD Methodology, a concise method to align ATRAF's phases with IMRaD sections. This methodology enhances the rigor, transparency, and accessibility of software architecture research, enabling systematic reporting of complex evaluations.

We present a comprehensive AI risk taxonomy derived from eight government policies from the European Union, United States, and China and 16 company policies worldwide, making a significant step towards establishing a unified language for generative AI safety evaluation. We identify 314 unique risk categories organized into a four-tiered taxonomy. At the highest level, this taxonomy encompasses System & Operational Risks, Content Safety Risks, Societal Risks, and Legal & Rights Risks. The taxonomy establishes connections between various descriptions and approaches to risk, highlighting the overlaps and discrepancies between public and private sector conceptions of risk. By providing this unified framework, we aim to advance AI safety through information sharing across sectors and the promotion of best practices in risk mitigation for generative AI models and systems.

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

We propose a weakly-supervised model for word-level mispronunciation detection in non-native (L2) English speech. To train this model, phonetically transcribed L2 speech is not required and we only need to mark mispronounced words. The lack of phonetic transcriptions for L2 speech means that the model has to learn only from a weak signal of word-level mispronunciations. Because of that and due to the limited amount of mispronounced L2 speech, the model is more likely to overfit. To limit this risk, we train it in a multi-task setup. In the first task, we estimate the probabilities of word-level mispronunciation. For the second task, we use a phoneme recognizer trained on phonetically transcribed L1 speech that is easily accessible and can be automatically annotated. Compared to state-of-the-art approaches, we improve the accuracy of detecting word-level pronunciation errors in AUC metric by 30% on the GUT Isle Corpus of L2 Polish speakers, and by 21.5% on the Isle Corpus of L2 German and Italian speakers.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are a popular technique for modelling graph-structured data and computing node-level representations via aggregation of information from the neighborhood of each node. However, this aggregation implies an increased risk of revealing sensitive information, as a node can participate in the inference for multiple nodes. This implies that standard privacy-preserving machine learning techniques, such as differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) - which are designed for situations where each data point participates in the inference for one point only - either do not apply, or lead to inaccurate models. In this work, we formally define the problem of learning GNN parameters with node-level privacy, and provide an algorithmic solution with a strong differential privacy guarantee. We employ a careful sensitivity analysis and provide a non-trivial extension of the privacy-by-amplification technique to the GNN setting. An empirical evaluation on standard benchmark datasets demonstrates that our method is indeed able to learn accurate privacy-preserving GNNs which outperform both private and non-private methods that completely ignore graph information.

We introduce MedXpertQA, a highly challenging and comprehensive benchmark to evaluate expert-level medical knowledge and advanced reasoning. MedXpertQA includes 4,460 questions spanning 17 specialties and 11 body systems. It includes two subsets, Text for text evaluation and MM for multimodal evaluation. Notably, MM introduces expert-level exam questions with diverse images and rich clinical information, including patient records and examination results, setting it apart from traditional medical multimodal benchmarks with simple QA pairs generated from image captions. MedXpertQA applies rigorous filtering and augmentation to address the insufficient difficulty of existing benchmarks like MedQA, and incorporates specialty board questions to improve clinical relevance and comprehensiveness. We perform data synthesis to mitigate data leakage risk and conduct multiple rounds of expert reviews to ensure accuracy and reliability. We evaluate 16 leading models on MedXpertQA. Moreover, medicine is deeply connected to real-world decision-making, providing a rich and representative setting for assessing reasoning abilities beyond mathematics and code. To this end, we develop a reasoning-oriented subset to facilitate the assessment of o1-like models.

Language Model (LM) agents for cybersecurity that are capable of autonomously identifying vulnerabilities and executing exploits have the potential to cause real-world impact. Policymakers, model providers, and other researchers in the AI and cybersecurity communities are interested in quantifying the capabilities of such agents to help mitigate cyberrisk and investigate opportunities for penetration testing. Toward that end, we introduce Cybench, a framework for specifying cybersecurity tasks and evaluating agents on those tasks. We include 40 professional-level Capture the Flag (CTF) tasks from 4 distinct CTF competitions, chosen to be recent, meaningful, and spanning a wide range of difficulties. Each task includes its own description, starter files, and is initialized in an environment where an agent can execute bash commands and observe outputs. Since many tasks are beyond the capabilities of existing LM agents, we introduce subtasks, which break down a task into intermediary steps for more gradated evaluation; we add subtasks for 17 of the 40 tasks. To evaluate agent capabilities, we construct a cybersecurity agent and evaluate 7 models: GPT-4o, Claude 3 Opus, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Mixtral 8x22b Instruct, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Llama 3 70B Chat, and Llama 3.1 405B Instruct. Without guidance, we find that agents are able to solve only the easiest complete tasks that took human teams up to 11 minutes to solve, with Claude 3.5 Sonnet and GPT-4o having the highest success rates. Finally, subtasks provide more signal for measuring performance compared to unguided runs, with models achieving a 3.2\% higher success rate on complete tasks with subtask-guidance than without subtask-guidance. All code and data are publicly available at https://cybench.github.io

Realistic practice and tailored feedback are key processes for training peer counselors with clinical skills. However, existing mechanisms of providing feedback largely rely on human supervision. Peer counselors often lack mechanisms to receive detailed feedback from experienced mentors, making it difficult for them to support the large number of people with mental health issues who use peer counseling. Our work aims to leverage large language models to provide contextualized and multi-level feedback to empower peer counselors, especially novices, at scale. To achieve this, we co-design with a group of senior psychotherapy supervisors to develop a multi-level feedback taxonomy, and then construct a publicly available dataset with comprehensive feedback annotations of 400 emotional support conversations. We further design a self-improvement method on top of large language models to enhance the automatic generation of feedback. Via qualitative and quantitative evaluation with domain experts, we demonstrate that our method minimizes the risk of potentially harmful and low-quality feedback generation which is desirable in such high-stakes scenarios.

When fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to align with human values and intentions, maximizing the estimated reward can lead to superior performance, but it also introduces potential risks due to deviations from the reference model's intended behavior. Most existing methods typically introduce KL divergence to constrain deviations between the trained model and the reference model; however, this may not be sufficient in certain applications that require tight risk control. In this paper, we introduce Risk-aware Direct Preference Optimization (Ra-DPO), a novel approach that incorporates risk-awareness by employing a class of nested risk measures. This approach formulates a constrained risk-aware advantage function maximization problem and then converts the Bradley-Terry model into a token-level representation. The objective function maximizes the likelihood of the policy while suppressing the deviation between a trained model and the reference model using a sequential risk ratio, thereby enhancing the model's risk-awareness. Experimental results across three open-source datasets: IMDb Dataset, Anthropic HH Dataset, and AlpacaEval, demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance in balancing alignment performance and model drift. Our code is opensourced at https://github.com/zlj123-max/Ra-DPO.

General-purpose LLM judges capable of human-level evaluation provide not only a scalable and accurate way of evaluating instruction-following LLMs but also new avenues for supervising and improving their performance. One promising way of leveraging LLM judges for supervision is through Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR) decoding, which uses a reference-based evaluator to select a high-quality output from amongst a set of candidate outputs. In the first part of this work, we explore using MBR decoding as a method for improving the test-time performance of instruction-following LLMs. We find that MBR decoding with reference-based LLM judges substantially improves over greedy decoding, best-of-N decoding with reference-free judges and MBR decoding with lexical and embedding-based metrics on AlpacaEval and MT-Bench. These gains are consistent across LLMs with up to 70B parameters, demonstrating that smaller LLM judges can be used to supervise much larger LLMs. Then, seeking to retain the improvements from MBR decoding while mitigating additional test-time costs, we explore iterative self-training on MBR-decoded outputs. We find that self-training using Direct Preference Optimisation leads to significant performance gains, such that the self-trained models with greedy decoding generally match and sometimes exceed the performance of their base models with MBR decoding.

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a parsimonious way. We develop two algorithms for posterior inference that feature varying level of trade-off between estimation precision and computational speed. Using monthly data for the euro area, we establish the good empirical properties of the QFAVAR as a tool for assessing the effects of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks. In particular, QFAVAR short-run tail forecasts are more accurate compared to a FAVAR with symmetric Gaussian errors, as well as univariate quantile autoregressions that ignore comovements among quantiles of macroeconomic variables. We also illustrate how quantile impulse response functions and quantile connectedness measures, resulting from the new model, can be used to implement joint risk scenario analysis.

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a chronic lung disease affecting 35% of extremely low birth weight infants. Defined by oxygen dependence at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, it causes lifelong respiratory complications. However, preventive interventions carry severe risks, including neurodevelopmental impairment, ventilator-induced lung injury, and systemic complications. Therefore, early BPD prognosis and prediction of BPD outcome is crucial to avoid unnecessary toxicity in low risk infants. Admission radiographs of extremely preterm infants are routinely acquired within 24h of life and could serve as a non-invasive prognostic tool. In this work, we developed and investigated a deep learning approach using chest X-rays from 163 extremely low-birth-weight infants (leq32 weeks gestation, 401-999g) obtained within 24 hours of birth. We fine-tuned a ResNet-50 pretrained specifically on adult chest radiographs, employing progressive layer freezing with discriminative learning rates to prevent overfitting and evaluated a CutMix augmentation and linear probing. For moderate/severe BPD outcome prediction, our best performing model with progressive freezing, linear probing and CutMix achieved an AUROC of 0.78 pm 0.10, balanced accuracy of 0.69 pm 0.10, and an F1-score of 0.67 pm 0.11. In-domain pre-training significantly outperformed ImageNet initialization (p = 0.031) which confirms domain-specific pretraining to be important for BPD outcome prediction. Routine IRDS grades showed limited prognostic value (AUROC 0.57 pm 0.11), confirming the need of learned markers. Our approach demonstrates that domain-specific pretraining enables accurate BPD prediction from routine day-1 radiographs. Through progressive freezing and linear probing, the method remains computationally feasible for site-level implementation and future federated learning deployments.

Instance-level image classification tasks have traditionally relied on single-instance labels to train models, e.g., few-shot learning and transfer learning. However, set-level coarse-grained labels that capture relationships among instances can provide richer information in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel approach to enhance instance-level image classification by leveraging set-level labels. We provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed method, including recognition conditions for fast excess risk rate, shedding light on the theoretical foundations of our approach. We conducted experiments on two distinct categories of datasets: natural image datasets and histopathology image datasets. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, showcasing improved classification performance compared to traditional single-instance label-based methods. Notably, our algorithm achieves 13% improvement in classification accuracy compared to the strongest baseline on the histopathology image classification benchmarks. Importantly, our experimental findings align with the theoretical analysis, reinforcing the robustness and reliability of our proposed method. This work bridges the gap between instance-level and set-level image classification, offering a promising avenue for advancing the capabilities of image classification models with set-level coarse-grained labels.

The machine learning community has recently had increased interest in the climate and disaster damage domain due to a marked increased occurrences of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, forest fires, floods, earthquakes). However, not enough attention has been devoted to mitigating probable destruction from impending natural hazards. We explore this crucial space by predicting building-level damages on a before-the-fact basis that would allow state actors and non-governmental organizations to be best equipped with resource distribution to minimize or preempt losses. We introduce PreDisM that employs an ensemble of ResNets and fully connected layers over decision trees to capture image-level and meta-level information to accurately estimate weakness of man-made structures to disaster-occurrences. Our model performs well and is responsive to tuning across types of disasters and highlights the space of preemptive hazard damage modelling.

We propose a framework for classifying the capabilities and behavior of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) models and their precursors. This framework introduces levels of AGI performance, generality, and autonomy, providing a common language to compare models, assess risks, and measure progress along the path to AGI. To develop our framework, we analyze existing definitions of AGI, and distill six principles that a useful ontology for AGI should satisfy. With these principles in mind, we propose "Levels of AGI" based on depth (performance) and breadth (generality) of capabilities, and reflect on how current systems fit into this ontology. We discuss the challenging requirements for future benchmarks that quantify the behavior and capabilities of AGI models against these levels. Finally, we discuss how these levels of AGI interact with deployment considerations such as autonomy and risk, and emphasize the importance of carefully selecting Human-AI Interaction paradigms for responsible and safe deployment of highly capable AI systems.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly exhibit anthropomorphism characteristics -- human-like qualities portrayed across their outlook, language, behavior, and reasoning functions. Such characteristics enable more intuitive and engaging human-AI interactions. However, current research on anthropomorphism remains predominantly risk-focused, emphasizing over-trust and user deception while offering limited design guidance. We argue that anthropomorphism should instead be treated as a concept of design that can be intentionally tuned to support user goals. Drawing from multiple disciplines, we propose that the anthropomorphism of an LLM-based artifact should reflect the interaction between artifact designers and interpreters. This interaction is facilitated by cues embedded in the artifact by the designers and the (cognitive) responses of the interpreters to the cues. Cues are categorized into four dimensions: perceptive, linguistic, behavioral, and cognitive. By analyzing the manifestation and effectiveness of each cue, we provide a unified taxonomy with actionable levers for practitioners. Consequently, we advocate for function-oriented evaluations of anthropomorphic design.

Large language models (LLMs) augmented with retrieval systems have demonstrated significant potential in handling knowledge-intensive tasks. However, these models often struggle with unfaithfulness issues, generating outputs that either ignore the retrieved context or inconsistently blend it with the LLM`s parametric knowledge. This issue is particularly severe in cases of knowledge conflict, where the retrieved context conflicts with the model`s parametric knowledge. While existing faithful RAG approaches enforce strict context adherence through well-designed prompts or modified decoding strategies, our analysis reveals a critical limitation: they achieve faithfulness by forcibly suppressing the model`s parametric knowledge, which undermines the model`s internal knowledge structure and increases the risk of misinterpreting the context. To this end, this paper proposes FaithfulRAG, a novel framework that resolves knowledge conflicts by explicitly modeling discrepancies between the model`s parametric knowledge and retrieved context. Specifically, FaithfulRAG identifies conflicting knowledge at the fact level and designs a self-thinking process, allowing LLMs to reason about and integrate conflicting facts before generating responses. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https:// github.com/DeepLearnXMU/Faithful-RAG

Large language model pretraining is compute-intensive, yet many tokens contribute marginally to learning, resulting in inefficiency. We introduce Efficient Selective Language Modeling (ESLM), a risk-aware algorithm that improves training efficiency and distributional robustness by performing online token-level batch selection. ESLM leverages per-token statistics (e.g., entropy or loss) and applies value-at-risk thresholding to retain only the most informative tokens per batch. This data-centric mechanism reshapes the training loss, prioritizing high-risk tokens and eliminating redundant gradient computation. We frame ESLM as a bilevel game: the model competes with a masking adversary that selects worst-case token subsets under a constrained thresholding rule. In the loss-based setting, ESLM recovers conditional value-at-risk loss minimization, providing a principled connection to distributionally robust optimization. We extend our approach to Ada-ESLM, which adaptively tunes the selection confidence during training. Experiments on GPT-2 pretraining show that ESLM significantly reduces training FLOPs while maintaining or improving both perplexity and downstream performance compared to baselines. Our approach also scales across model sizes, pretraining corpora, and integrates naturally with knowledge distillation.

Code Agent development is an extremely active research area, where a reliable performance metric is critical for tracking progress and guiding new developments. This demand is underscored by the meteoric rise in popularity of SWE-Bench. This benchmark challenges code agents to generate patches addressing GitHub issues given the full repository as context. The correctness of generated patches is then evaluated by executing a human-written test suite extracted from the repository after the issue's resolution. However, constructing benchmarks like SWE-Bench requires substantial manual effort to set up historically accurate execution environments for testing. Crucially, this severely limits the number of considered repositories, e.g., just 12 for SWE-Bench. Considering so few repositories, selected for their popularity runs the risk of leading to a distributional mismatch, i.e., the measured performance may not be representative of real-world scenarios potentially misguiding development efforts. In this work, we address this challenge and introduce SetUpAgent, a fully automated system capable of historically accurate dependency setup, test execution, and result parsing. Using SetUpAgent, we generate two new datasets: (i) SWEE-Bench an extended version of SWE-Bench encompassing hundreds of repositories, and (ii) SWA-Bench a benchmark focusing on applications rather than libraries. Comparing these datasets to SWE-Bench with respect to their characteristics and code agent performance, we find significant distributional differences, including lower issue description quality and detail level, higher fix complexity, and most importantly up to 40% lower agent success rates.

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

The legality of training language models (LMs) on copyrighted or otherwise restricted data is under intense debate. However, as we show, model performance significantly degrades if trained only on low-risk text (e.g., out-of-copyright books or government documents), due to its limited size and domain coverage. We present SILO, a new language model that manages this risk-performance tradeoff during inference. SILO is built by (1) training a parametric LM on Open License Corpus (OLC), a new corpus we curate with 228B tokens of public domain and permissively licensed text and (2) augmenting it with a more general and easily modifiable nonparametric datastore (e.g., containing copyrighted books or news) that is only queried during inference. The datastore allows use of high-risk data without training on it, supports sentence-level data attribution, and enables data producers to opt out from the model by removing content from the store. These capabilities can foster compliance with data-use regulations such as the fair use doctrine in the United States and the GDPR in the European Union. Our experiments show that the parametric LM struggles on domains not covered by OLC. However, access to the datastore greatly improves out of domain performance, closing 90% of the performance gap with an LM trained on the Pile, a more diverse corpus with mostly high-risk text. We also analyze which nonparametric approach works best, where the remaining errors lie, and how performance scales with datastore size. Our results suggest that it is possible to build high quality language models while mitigating their legal risk.

Modern software systems are guided by hierarchical architectural concepts -- software architectures, reference architectures, and architectural frameworks -- each operating at a distinct level of abstraction. These artifacts promote reuse, scalability, and consistency, but also embed tradeoffs that shape critical quality attributes such as modifiability, performance, and security. Existing evaluation methods, such as the Architecture Tradeoff Analysis Method (ATAM), focus on system-specific architectures and are not designed to address the broader generality and variability of higher-level architectural forms. To close this gap, we introduce the Architecture Tradeoff and Risk Analysis Framework (ATRAF) -- a unified, scenario-driven framework for evaluating tradeoffs and risks across architectural levels. ATRAF encompasses three methods: the Architecture Tradeoff and Risk Analysis Method (ATRAM), extending ATAM with enhanced risk identification for concrete systems; the Reference Architecture Tradeoff and Risk Analysis Method (RATRAM), adapting ATRAM to the evaluation of domain-level reference architectures; and the Architectural Framework Tradeoff and Risk Analysis Method (AFTRAM), supporting the evaluation of architectural frameworks that guide entire system families. All three methods follow an iterative spiral process that enables the identification of sensitivities, tradeoffs, and risks while supporting continuous refinement of architectural artifacts. We demonstrate ATRAF through progressively abstracted examples derived from the Remote Temperature Sensor (RTS) case, originally introduced in the ATAM literature. ATRAF equips architects, reference modelers, and framework designers with a practical, systematic approach for analyzing design alternatives and managing quality attribute tradeoffs early in the lifecycle and across all levels of architectural abstraction.

This work introduces ArtAdapter, a transformative text-to-image (T2I) style transfer framework that transcends traditional limitations of color, brushstrokes, and object shape, capturing high-level style elements such as composition and distinctive artistic expression. The integration of a multi-level style encoder with our proposed explicit adaptation mechanism enables ArtAdapte to achieve unprecedented fidelity in style transfer, ensuring close alignment with textual descriptions. Additionally, the incorporation of an Auxiliary Content Adapter (ACA) effectively separates content from style, alleviating the borrowing of content from style references. Moreover, our novel fast finetuning approach could further enhance zero-shot style representation while mitigating the risk of overfitting. Comprehensive evaluations confirm that ArtAdapter surpasses current state-of-the-art methods.

Modern Vision-Language Models (VLMs) demonstrate sophisticated reasoning, escalating privacy risks beyond simple attribute perception to individual-level linkage. Current privacy benchmarks are structurally insufficient for this new threat, as they primarily evaluate privacy perception while failing to address the more critical risk of privacy reasoning: a VLM's ability to infer and link distributed information to construct individual profiles. To address this critical gap, we propose MultiPriv, the first benchmark designed to systematically evaluate individual-level privacy reasoning in VLMs. We introduce the Privacy Perception and Reasoning (PPR) framework and construct a novel, bilingual multimodal dataset to support it. The dataset uniquely features a core component of synthetic individual profiles where identifiers (e.g., faces, names) are meticulously linked to sensitive attributes. This design enables nine challenging tasks evaluating the full PPR spectrum, from attribute detection to cross-image re-identification and chained inference. We conduct a large-scale evaluation of over 50 foundational and commercial VLMs. Our analysis reveals: (1) Many VLMs possess significant, unmeasured reasoning-based privacy risks. (2) Perception-level metrics are poor predictors of these reasoning risks, revealing a critical evaluation gap. (3) Existing safety alignments are inconsistent and ineffective against such reasoning-based attacks. MultiPriv exposes systemic vulnerabilities and provides the necessary framework for developing robust, privacy-preserving VLMs.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) is a popular method for fine-tuning large-scale pre-trained models in downstream tasks by learning low-rank incremental matrices. Though LoRA and its variants effectively reduce the number of trainable parameters compared to full fine-tuning methods, they often overfit training data, resulting in sub-optimal generalization on test data. To address this problem, we introduce BiLoRA, an overfitting-alleviating fine-tuning approach based on bi-level optimization (BLO). BiLoRA employs pseudo singular value decomposition to parameterize low-rank incremental matrices and splits the training of pseudo singular vectors and values across two different subsets of training data. This division, embedded within separate levels of the BLO framework, mitigates the risk of overfitting to a single dataset. Tested on ten datasets covering natural language understanding and generation tasks and applied to various well-known large pre-trained models, BiLoRA significantly outperforms LoRA methods and other fine-tuning approaches, with similar amounts of trainable parameters.

Breast cancer is a significant health concern affecting millions of women worldwide. Accurate survival risk stratification plays a crucial role in guiding personalised treatment decisions and improving patient outcomes. Here we present BioFusionNet, a deep learning framework that fuses image-derived features with genetic and clinical data to achieve a holistic patient profile and perform survival risk stratification of ER+ breast cancer patients. We employ multiple self-supervised feature extractors, namely DINO and MoCoV3, pretrained on histopathology patches to capture detailed histopathological image features. We then utilise a variational autoencoder (VAE) to fuse these features, and harness the latent space of the VAE to feed into a self-attention network, generating patient-level features. Next, we develop a co-dual-cross-attention mechanism to combine the histopathological features with genetic data, enabling the model to capture the interplay between them. Additionally, clinical data is incorporated using a feed-forward network (FFN), further enhancing predictive performance and achieving comprehensive multimodal feature integration. Furthermore, we introduce a weighted Cox loss function, specifically designed to handle imbalanced survival data, which is a common challenge in the field. The proposed model achieves a mean concordance index (C-index) of 0.77 and a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. It predicts risk (high versus low) with prognostic significance for overall survival (OS) in univariate analysis (HR=2.99, 95% CI: 1.88--4.78, p<0.005), and maintains independent significance in multivariate analysis incorporating standard clinicopathological variables (HR=2.91, 95% CI: 1.80--4.68, p<0.005). The proposed method not only improves model performance but also addresses a critical gap in handling imbalanced data.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable human-level natural language generation capabilities. However, their potential to generate misinformation, often called the hallucination problem, poses a significant risk to their deployment. A common approach to address this issue is to retrieve relevant knowledge and fine-tune the LLM with the knowledge in its input. Unfortunately, this method incurs high training costs and may cause catastrophic forgetting for multi-tasking models. To overcome these limitations, we propose a knowledge-constrained decoding method called KCTS (Knowledge-Constrained Tree Search), which guides a frozen LM to generate text aligned with the reference knowledge at each decoding step using a knowledge classifier score and MCTS (Monte-Carlo Tree Search). To adapt the sequence-level knowledge classifier to token-level guidance, we also propose a novel token-level hallucination detection method called RIPA (Reward Inflection Point Approximation). Our empirical results on knowledge-grounded dialogue and abstractive summarization demonstrate the strength of KCTS as a plug-and-play, model-agnostic decoding method that can effectively reduce hallucinations in natural language generation.

In this article, we consider the problem of a bank's loan portfolio in the context of liquidity risk, while allowing for the limited liability protection enjoyed by the bank. Accordingly, we construct a novel loan portfolio model with limited liability, while maintaining a threshold level of haircut in the portfolio. For the constructed three-time step loan portfolio, at the initial time, the bank raises capital via debt and equity, investing the same in several classes of loans, while at the final time, the bank either meets its liabilities or becomes insolvent. At the intermediate time step, a fraction of the deposits are withdrawn, resulting in liquidation of some of the bank's assets. The liquidated portfolio is designed with the goal of minimizing the liquidation cost. Our theoretical results show that model with the haircut constraint leads to lesser liquidity risk, as compared to the scenario of no haircut constraint being imposed. Finally, we present numerical results to illustrate the theoretical results which were obtained.

Unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) aims to find anomalous images by optimising a detector using a training set that contains only normal images. UAD approaches can be based on reconstruction methods, self-supervised approaches, and Imagenet pre-trained models. Reconstruction methods, which detect anomalies from image reconstruction errors, are advantageous because they do not rely on the design of problem-specific pretext tasks needed by self-supervised approaches, and on the unreliable translation of models pre-trained from non-medical datasets. However, reconstruction methods may fail because they can have low reconstruction errors even for anomalous images. In this paper, we introduce a new reconstruction-based UAD approach that addresses this low-reconstruction error issue for anomalous images. Our UAD approach, the memory-augmented multi-level cross-attentional masked autoencoder (MemMC-MAE), is a transformer-based approach, consisting of a novel memory-augmented self-attention operator for the encoder and a new multi-level cross-attention operator for the decoder. MemMCMAE masks large parts of the input image during its reconstruction, reducing the risk that it will produce low reconstruction errors because anomalies are likely to be masked and cannot be reconstructed. However, when the anomaly is not masked, then the normal patterns stored in the encoder's memory combined with the decoder's multi-level cross attention will constrain the accurate reconstruction of the anomaly. We show that our method achieves SOTA anomaly detection and localisation on colonoscopy, pneumonia, and covid-19 chest x-ray datasets.

Survival risk stratification is an important step in clinical decision making for breast cancer management. We propose a novel deep learning approach for this purpose by integrating histopathological imaging, genetic and clinical data. It employs vision transformers, specifically the MaxViT model, for image feature extraction, and self-attention to capture intricate image relationships at the patient level. A dual cross-attention mechanism fuses these features with genetic data, while clinical data is incorporated at the final layer to enhance predictive accuracy. Experiments on the public TCGA-BRCA dataset show that our model, trained using the negative log likelihood loss function, can achieve superior performance with a mean C-index of 0.64, surpassing existing methods. This advancement facilitates tailored treatment strategies, potentially leading to improved patient outcomes.

Invasive species in water bodies pose a major threat to the environment and biodiversity globally. Due to increased transportation and trade, non-native species have been introduced to new environments, causing damage to ecosystems and leading to economic losses in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Therefore, there is a pressing need for risk assessment and management techniques to mitigate the impact of these invasions. This study aims to develop a new physics-inspired model to forecast maritime shipping traffic and thus inform risk assessment of invasive species spread through global transportation networks. Inspired by the gravity model for international trades, our model considers various factors that influence the likelihood and impact of vessel activities, such as shipping flux density, distance between ports, trade flow, and centrality measures of transportation hubs. Additionally, by analyzing the risk network of invasive species, we provide a comprehensive framework for assessing the invasion threat level given a pair of origin and destination. Accordingly, this paper introduces transformers to gravity models to rebuild the short- and long-term dependencies that make the risk analysis feasible. Thus, we introduce a physics-inspired framework that achieves an 89% segmentation accuracy for existing and non-existing trajectories and an 84.8% accuracy for the number of vessels flowing between key port areas, representing more than 10% improvement over the traditional deep-gravity model. Along these lines, this research contributes to a better understanding of invasive species risk assessment. It allows policymakers, conservationists, and stakeholders to prioritize management actions by identifying high-risk invasion pathways. Besides, our model is versatile and can include new data sources, making it suitable for assessing species invasion risks in a changing global landscape.

In this paper, we develop a hybrid approach to forecasting the volatility and risk of financial instruments by combining common econometric GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks. For the latter, we employ Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks, whereas four different specifications are used as the GARCH component: standard GARCH, EGARCH, GJR-GARCH and APARCH. Models are tested using daily logarithmic returns on the S&P 500 index as well as gold price Bitcoin prices, with the three assets representing quite distinct volatility dynamics. As the main volatility estimator, also underlying the target function of our hybrid models, we use the price-range-based Garman-Klass estimator, modified to incorporate the opening and closing prices. Volatility forecasts resulting from the hybrid models are employed to evaluate the assets' risk using the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) at two different tolerance levels of 5% and 1%. Gains from combining the GARCH and GRU approaches are discussed in the contexts of both the volatility and risk forecasts. In general, it can be concluded that the hybrid solutions produce more accurate point volatility forecasts, although it does not necessarily translate into superior VaR and ES forecasts.

The robustness of recent Large Language Models (LLMs) has become increasingly crucial as their applicability expands across various domains and real-world applications. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is a promising solution for addressing the limitations of LLMs, yet existing studies on the robustness of RAG often overlook the interconnected relationships between RAG components or the potential threats prevalent in real-world databases, such as minor textual errors. In this work, we investigate two underexplored aspects when assessing the robustness of RAG: 1) vulnerability to noisy documents through low-level perturbations and 2) a holistic evaluation of RAG robustness. Furthermore, we introduce a novel attack method, the Genetic Attack on RAG (GARAG), which targets these aspects. Specifically, GARAG is designed to reveal vulnerabilities within each component and test the overall system functionality against noisy documents. We validate RAG robustness by applying our GARAG to standard QA datasets, incorporating diverse retrievers and LLMs. The experimental results show that GARAG consistently achieves high attack success rates. Also, it significantly devastates the performance of each component and their synergy, highlighting the substantial risk that minor textual inaccuracies pose in disrupting RAG systems in the real world.

Large Language Models (LLMs) continue to exhibit vulnerabilities despite deliberate safety alignment efforts, posing significant risks to users and society. To safeguard against the risk of policy-violating content, system-level moderation via external guard models-designed to monitor LLM inputs and outputs and block potentially harmful content-has emerged as a prevalent mitigation strategy. Existing approaches of training guard models rely heavily on extensive human curated datasets and struggle with out-of-distribution threats, such as emerging harmful categories or jailbreak attacks. To address these limitations, we propose RSafe, an adaptive reasoning-based safeguard that conducts guided safety reasoning to provide robust protection within the scope of specified safety policies. RSafe operates in two stages: 1) guided reasoning, where it analyzes safety risks of input content through policy-guided step-by-step reasoning, and 2) reinforced alignment, where rule-based RL optimizes its reasoning paths to align with accurate safety prediction. This two-stage training paradigm enables RSafe to internalize safety principles to generalize safety protection capability over unseen or adversarial safety violation scenarios. During inference, RSafe accepts user-specified safety policies to provide enhanced safeguards tailored to specific safety requirements.

Hydrogen-electrical microgrids are increasingly assuming an important role on the pathway toward decarbonization of energy and transportation systems. This paper studies networked hydrogen-electrical microgrids planning (NHEMP), considering a critical but often-overlooked issue, i.e., the demand-inducing effect (DIE) associated with infrastructure development decisions. Specifically, higher refueling capacities will attract more refueling demand of hydrogen-powered vehicles (HVs). To capture such interactions between investment decisions and induced refueling demand, we introduce a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) set and build a trilevel stochastic-robust formulation. The upper-level determines optimal investment strategies for hydrogen-electrical microgrids, the lower-level optimizes the risk-aware operation schedules across a series of stochastic scenarios, and, for each scenario, the middle-level identifies the "worst" situation of refueling demand within an individual DDU set to ensure economic feasibility. Then, an adaptive and exact decomposition algorithm, based on Parametric Column-and-Constraint Generation (PC&CG), is customized and developed to address the computational challenge and to quantitatively analyze the impact of DIE. Case studies on an IEEE exemplary system validate the effectiveness of the proposed NHEMP model and the PC&CG algorithm. It is worth highlighting that DIE can make an important contribution to the economic benefits of NHEMP, yet its significance will gradually decrease when the main bottleneck transits to other system restrictions.

Hallucination, where models generate fluent text unsupported by visual evidence, remains a major flaw in vision-language models and is particularly critical in sign language translation (SLT). In SLT, meaning depends on precise grounding in video, and gloss-free models are especially vulnerable because they map continuous signer movements directly into natural language without intermediate gloss supervision that serves as alignment. We argue that hallucinations arise when models rely on language priors rather than visual input. To capture this, we propose a token-level reliability measure that quantifies how much the decoder uses visual information. Our method combines feature-based sensitivity, which measures internal changes when video is masked, with counterfactual signals, which capture probability differences between clean and altered video inputs. These signals are aggregated into a sentence-level reliability score, providing a compact and interpretable measure of visual grounding. We evaluate the proposed measure on two SLT benchmarks (PHOENIX-2014T and CSL-Daily) with both gloss-based and gloss-free models. Our results show that reliability predicts hallucination rates, generalizes across datasets and architectures, and decreases under visual degradations. Beyond these quantitative trends, we also find that reliability distinguishes grounded tokens from guessed ones, allowing risk estimation without references; when combined with text-based signals (confidence, perplexity, or entropy), it further improves hallucination risk estimation. Qualitative analysis highlights why gloss-free models are more susceptible to hallucinations. Taken together, our findings establish reliability as a practical and reusable tool for diagnosing hallucinations in SLT, and lay the groundwork for more robust hallucination detection in multimodal generation.

Computer-Use Agents (CUAs) are an increasingly deployed class of agents that take actions on GUIs to accomplish user goals. In this paper, we show that CUAs consistently exhibit Blind Goal-Directedness (BGD): a bias to pursue goals regardless of feasibility, safety, reliability, or context. We characterize three prevalent patterns of BGD: (i) lack of contextual reasoning, (ii) assumptions and decisions under ambiguity, and (iii) contradictory or infeasible goals. We develop BLIND-ACT, a benchmark of 90 tasks capturing these three patterns. Built on OSWorld, BLIND-ACT provides realistic environments and employs LLM-based judges to evaluate agent behavior, achieving 93.75% agreement with human annotations. We use BLIND-ACT to evaluate nine frontier models, including Claude Sonnet and Opus 4, Computer-Use-Preview, and GPT-5, observing high average BGD rates (80.8%) across them. We show that BGD exposes subtle risks that arise even when inputs are not directly harmful. While prompting-based interventions lower BGD levels, substantial risk persists, highlighting the need for stronger training- or inference-time interventions. Qualitative analysis reveals observed failure modes: execution-first bias (focusing on how to act over whether to act), thought-action disconnect (execution diverging from reasoning), and request-primacy (justifying actions due to user request). Identifying BGD and introducing BLIND-ACT establishes a foundation for future research on studying and mitigating this fundamental risk and ensuring safe CUA deployment.

Recent advances in text-to-image diffusion models have enabled the creation of a new form of digital art: optical illusions--visual tricks that create different perceptions of reality. However, adversaries may misuse such techniques to generate hateful illusions, which embed specific hate messages into harmless scenes and disseminate them across web communities. In this work, we take the first step toward investigating the risks of scalable hateful illusion generation and the potential for bypassing current content moderation models. Specifically, we generate 1,860 optical illusions using Stable Diffusion and ControlNet, conditioned on 62 hate messages. Of these, 1,571 are hateful illusions that successfully embed hate messages, either overtly or subtly, forming the Hateful Illusion dataset. Using this dataset, we evaluate the performance of six moderation classifiers and nine vision language models (VLMs) in identifying hateful illusions. Experimental results reveal significant vulnerabilities in existing moderation models: the detection accuracy falls below 0.245 for moderation classifiers and below 0.102 for VLMs. We further identify a critical limitation in their vision encoders, which mainly focus on surface-level image details while overlooking the secondary layer of information, i.e., hidden messages. To address this risk, we explore preliminary mitigation measures and identify the most effective approaches from the perspectives of image transformations and training-level strategies.

Most safety testing efforts for large language models (LLMs) today focus on evaluating foundation models. However, there is a growing need to evaluate safety at the application level, as components such as system prompts, retrieval pipelines, and guardrails introduce additional factors that significantly influence the overall safety of LLM applications. In this paper, we introduce a practical framework for evaluating application-level safety in LLM systems, validated through real-world deployment across multiple use cases within our organization. The framework consists of two parts: (1) principles for developing customized safety risk taxonomies, and (2) practices for evaluating safety risks in LLM applications. We illustrate how the proposed framework was applied in our internal pilot, providing a reference point for organizations seeking to scale their safety testing efforts. This work aims to bridge the gap between theoretical concepts in AI safety and the operational realities of safeguarding LLM applications in practice, offering actionable guidance for safe and scalable deployment.

Open-source AI libraries are foundational to modern AI systems but pose significant, underexamined risks across security, licensing, maintenance, supply chain integrity, and regulatory compliance. We present LibVulnWatch, a graph-based agentic assessment framework that performs deep, source-grounded evaluations of these libraries. Built on LangGraph, the system coordinates a directed acyclic graph of specialized agents to extract, verify, and quantify risk using evidence from trusted sources such as repositories, documentation, and vulnerability databases. LibVulnWatch generates reproducible, governance-aligned scores across five critical domains, publishing them to a public leaderboard for longitudinal ecosystem monitoring. Applied to 20 widely used libraries, including ML frameworks, LLM inference engines, and agent orchestration tools, our system covers up to 88% of OpenSSF Scorecard checks while uncovering up to 19 additional risks per library. These include critical Remote Code Execution (RCE) vulnerabilities, absent Software Bills of Materials (SBOMs), licensing constraints, undocumented telemetry, and widespread gaps in regulatory documentation and auditability. By translating high-level governance principles into practical, verifiable metrics, LibVulnWatch advances technical AI governance with a scalable, transparent mechanism for continuous supply chain risk assessment and informed library selection.

Although Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) and Large Language Models (LLMs) each show promise in addressing decision-making challenges in autonomous driving, DRL often suffers from high sample complexity, while LLMs have difficulty ensuring real-time decision making. To address these limitations, we propose TeLL-Drive, a hybrid framework that integrates a Teacher LLM to guide an attention-based Student DRL policy. By incorporating risk metrics, historical scenario retrieval, and domain heuristics into context-rich prompts, the LLM produces high-level driving strategies through chain-of-thought reasoning. A self-attention mechanism then fuses these strategies with the DRL agent's exploration, accelerating policy convergence and boosting robustness across diverse driving conditions. The experimental results, evaluated across multiple traffic scenarios, show that TeLL-Drive outperforms existing baseline methods, including other LLM-based approaches, in terms of success rates, average returns, and real-time feasibility. Ablation studies underscore the importance of each model component, especially the synergy between the attention mechanism and LLM-driven guidance. Finally, we build a virtual-real fusion experimental platform to verify the real-time performance, robustness, and reliability of the algorithm running on real vehicles through vehicle-in-loop experiments.

Understanding how deep learning models predict oncology patient risk can provide critical insights into disease progression, support clinical decision-making, and pave the way for trustworthy and data-driven precision medicine. Building on recent advances in the spatial modeling of the tumor microenvironment using graph neural networks, we present an explainable cell graph (xCG) approach for survival prediction. We validate our model on a public cohort of imaging mass cytometry (IMC) data for 416 cases of lung adenocarcinoma. We explain survival predictions in terms of known phenotypes on the cell level by computing risk attributions over cell graphs, for which we propose an efficient grid-based layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) method. Our ablation studies highlight the importance of incorporating the cancer stage and model ensembling to improve the quality of risk estimates. Our xCG method, together with the IMC data, is made publicly available to support further research.

This study investigates the efficacy of large language models (LLMs) as tools for grading master-level student essays. Utilizing a sample of 60 essays in political science, the study compares the accuracy of grades suggested by the GPT-4 model with those awarded by university teachers. Results indicate that while GPT-4 aligns with human grading standards on mean scores, it exhibits a risk-averse grading pattern and its interrater reliability with human raters is low. Furthermore, modifications in the grading instructions (prompt engineering) do not significantly alter AI performance, suggesting that GPT-4 primarily assesses generic essay characteristics such as language quality rather than adapting to nuanced grading criteria. These findings contribute to the understanding of AI's potential and limitations in higher education, highlighting the need for further development to enhance its adaptability and sensitivity to specific educational assessment requirements.

Scaling the test-time compute of large language models has demonstrated impressive performance on reasoning benchmarks. However, existing evaluations of test-time scaling make the strong assumption that a reasoning system should always give an answer to any question provided. This overlooks concerns about whether a model is confident in its answer, and whether it is appropriate to always provide a response. To address these concerns, we extract confidence scores during reasoning for thresholding model responses. We find that increasing compute budget at inference time not only helps models answer more questions correctly, but also increases confidence in correct responses. We then extend the current paradigm of zero-risk responses during evaluation by considering settings with non-zero levels of response risk, and suggest a recipe for reporting evaluations under these settings.

The exposure of large language models (LLMs) to copyrighted material during pre-training raises concerns about unintentional copyright infringement post deployment. This has driven the development of "copyright takedown" methods, post-training approaches aimed at preventing models from generating content substantially similar to copyrighted ones. While current mitigation approaches are somewhat effective for average-case risks, we demonstrate that they overlook worst-case copyright risks exhibits by the existence of long, verbatim quotes from copyrighted sources. We propose BloomScrub, a remarkably simple yet highly effective inference-time approach that provides certified copyright takedown. Our method repeatedly interleaves quote detection with rewriting techniques to transform potentially infringing segments. By leveraging efficient data sketches (Bloom filters), our approach enables scalable copyright screening even for large-scale real-world corpora. When quotes beyond a length threshold cannot be removed, the system can abstain from responding, offering certified risk reduction. Experimental results show that BloomScrub reduces infringement risk, preserves utility, and accommodates different levels of enforcement stringency with adaptive abstention. Our results suggest that lightweight, inference-time methods can be surprisingly effective for copyright prevention.

The booming development of AI agents presents unprecedented opportunities for automating complex tasks across various domains. However, their multi-step, multi-tool collaboration capabilities in the financial sector remain underexplored. This paper introduces FinGAIA, an end-to-end benchmark designed to evaluate the practical abilities of AI agents in the financial domain. FinGAIA comprises 407 meticulously crafted tasks, spanning seven major financial sub-domains: securities, funds, banking, insurance, futures, trusts, and asset management. These tasks are organized into three hierarchical levels of scenario depth: basic business analysis, asset decision support, and strategic risk management. We evaluated 10 mainstream AI agents in a zero-shot setting. The best-performing agent, ChatGPT, achieved an overall accuracy of 48.9\%, which, while superior to non-professionals, still lags financial experts by over 35 percentage points. Error analysis has revealed five recurring failure patterns: Cross-modal Alignment Deficiency, Financial Terminological Bias, Operational Process Awareness Barrier, among others. These patterns point to crucial directions for future research. Our work provides the first agent benchmark closely related to the financial domain, aiming to objectively assess and promote the development of agents in this crucial field. Partial data is available at https://github.com/SUFE-AIFLM-Lab/FinGAIA.

Domain dependence and annotation subjectivity pose challenges for supervised keyword extraction. Based on the premises that second-order keyness patterns are existent at the community level and learnable from annotated keyword extraction datasets, this paper proposes a supervised ranking approach to keyword extraction that ranks keywords with keyness patterns consisting of independent features (such as sublanguage domain and term length) and three categories of dependent features -- heuristic features, specificity features, and representavity features. The approach uses two convolutional-neural-network based models to learn keyness patterns from keyword datasets and overcomes annotation subjectivity by training the two models with bootstrap sampling strategy. Experiments demonstrate that the approach not only achieves state-of-the-art performance on ten keyword datasets in general supervised keyword extraction with an average top-10-F-measure of 0.316 , but also robust cross-domain performance with an average top-10-F-measure of 0.346 on four datasets that are excluded in the training process. Such cross-domain robustness is attributed to the fact that community-level keyness patterns are limited in number and temperately independent of language domains, the distinction between independent features and dependent features, and the sampling training strategy that balances excess risk and lack of negative training data.

Researchers have used machine learning approaches to identify motion sickness in VR experience. These approaches demand an accurately-labeled, real-world, and diverse dataset for high accuracy and generalizability. As a starting point to address this need, we introduce `VR.net', a dataset offering approximately 12-hour gameplay videos from ten real-world games in 10 diverse genres. For each video frame, a rich set of motion sickness-related labels, such as camera/object movement, depth field, and motion flow, are accurately assigned. Building such a dataset is challenging since manual labeling would require an infeasible amount of time. Instead, we utilize a tool to automatically and precisely extract ground truth data from 3D engines' rendering pipelines without accessing VR games' source code. We illustrate the utility of VR.net through several applications, such as risk factor detection and sickness level prediction. We continuously expand VR.net and envision its next version offering 10X more data than the current form. We believe that the scale, accuracy, and diversity of VR.net can offer unparalleled opportunities for VR motion sickness research and beyond.

Given the huge volume of cross-border flows, effective and efficient control of trade becomes more crucial in protecting people and society from illicit trade. However, limited accessibility of the transaction-level trade datasets hinders the progress of open research, and lots of customs administrations have not benefited from the recent progress in data-based risk management. In this paper, we introduce an import declaration dataset to facilitate the collaboration between domain experts in customs administrations and researchers from diverse domains, such as data science and machine learning. The dataset contains 54,000 artificially generated trades with 22 key attributes, and it is synthesized with conditional tabular GAN while maintaining correlated features. Synthetic data has several advantages. First, releasing the dataset is free from restrictions that do not allow disclosing the original import data. The fabrication step minimizes the possible identity risk which may exist in trade statistics. Second, the published data follow a similar distribution to the source data so that it can be used in various downstream tasks. Hence, our dataset can be used as a benchmark for testing the performance of any classification algorithm. With the provision of data and its generation process, we open baseline codes for fraud detection tasks, as we empirically show that more advanced algorithms can better detect fraud.

Large Language Models have gained considerable attention for their revolutionary capabilities. However, there is also growing concern on their safety implications, making a comprehensive safety evaluation for LLMs urgently needed before model deployment. In this work, we propose S-Eval, a new comprehensive, multi-dimensional and open-ended safety evaluation benchmark. At the core of S-Eval is a novel LLM-based automatic test prompt generation and selection framework, which trains an expert testing LLM Mt combined with a range of test selection strategies to automatically construct a high-quality test suite for the safety evaluation. The key to the automation of this process is a novel expert safety-critique LLM Mc able to quantify the riskiness score of a LLM's response, and additionally produce risk tags and explanations. Besides, the generation process is also guided by a carefully designed risk taxonomy with four different levels, covering comprehensive and multi-dimensional safety risks of concern. Based on these, we systematically construct a new and large-scale safety evaluation benchmark for LLMs consisting of 220,000 evaluation prompts, including 20,000 base risk prompts (10,000 in Chinese and 10,000 in English) and 200, 000 corresponding attack prompts derived from 10 popular adversarial instruction attacks against LLMs. Moreover, considering the rapid evolution of LLMs and accompanied safety threats, S-Eval can be flexibly configured and adapted to include new risks, attacks and models. S-Eval is extensively evaluated on 20 popular and representative LLMs. The results confirm that S-Eval can better reflect and inform the safety risks of LLMs compared to existing benchmarks. We also explore the impacts of parameter scales, language environments, and decoding parameters on the evaluation, providing a systematic methodology for evaluating the safety of LLMs.

Accurate nutrition estimation helps people make informed dietary choices and is essential in the prevention of serious health complications. We present NutriBench, the first publicly available natural language meal description nutrition benchmark. NutriBench consists of 11,857 meal descriptions generated from real-world global dietary intake data. The data is human-verified and annotated with macro-nutrient labels, including carbohydrates, proteins, fats, and calories. We conduct an extensive evaluation of NutriBench on the task of carbohydrate estimation, testing twelve leading Large Language Models (LLMs), including GPT-4o, Llama3.1, Qwen2, Gemma2, and OpenBioLLM models, using standard, Chain-of-Thought and Retrieval-Augmented Generation strategies. Additionally, we present a study involving professional nutritionists, finding that LLMs can provide more accurate and faster estimates. Finally, we perform a real-world risk assessment by simulating the effect of carbohydrate predictions on the blood glucose levels of individuals with diabetes. Our work highlights the opportunities and challenges of using LLMs for nutrition estimation, demonstrating their potential to aid professionals and laypersons and improve health outcomes. Our benchmark is publicly available at: https://mehak126.github.io/nutribench.html

In this paper, we introduce Random Erasing, a new data augmentation method for training the convolutional neural network (CNN). In training, Random Erasing randomly selects a rectangle region in an image and erases its pixels with random values. In this process, training images with various levels of occlusion are generated, which reduces the risk of over-fitting and makes the model robust to occlusion. Random Erasing is parameter learning free, easy to implement, and can be integrated with most of the CNN-based recognition models. Albeit simple, Random Erasing is complementary to commonly used data augmentation techniques such as random cropping and flipping, and yields consistent improvement over strong baselines in image classification, object detection and person re-identification. Code is available at: https://github.com/zhunzhong07/Random-Erasing.

We consider the problem of Learning from Label Proportions (LLP), a weakly supervised classification setup where instances are grouped into "bags", and only the frequency of class labels at each bag is available. Albeit, the objective of the learner is to achieve low task loss at an individual instance level. Here we propose Easyllp: a flexible and simple-to-implement debiasing approach based on aggregate labels, which operates on arbitrary loss functions. Our technique allows us to accurately estimate the expected loss of an arbitrary model at an individual level. We showcase the flexibility of our approach by applying it to popular learning frameworks, like Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) and Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with provable guarantees on instance level performance. More concretely, we exhibit a variance reduction technique that makes the quality of LLP learning deteriorate only by a factor of k (k being bag size) in both ERM and SGD setups, as compared to full supervision. Finally, we validate our theoretical results on multiple datasets demonstrating our algorithm performs as well or better than previous LLP approaches in spite of its simplicity.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated notable capabilities across financial tasks, including financial report summarization, earnings call transcript analysis, and asset classification. However, their real-world effectiveness in managing complex fund investment remains inadequately assessed. A fundamental limitation of existing benchmarks for evaluating LLM-driven trading strategies is their reliance on historical back-testing, inadvertently enabling LLMs to "time travel"-leveraging future information embedded in their training corpora, thus resulting in possible information leakage and overly optimistic performance estimates. To address this issue, we introduce DeepFund, a live fund benchmark tool designed to rigorously evaluate LLM in real-time market conditions. Utilizing a multi-agent architecture, DeepFund connects directly with real-time stock market data-specifically data published after each model pretraining cutoff-to ensure fair and leakage-free evaluations. Empirical tests on nine flagship LLMs from leading global institutions across multiple investment dimensions-including ticker-level analysis, investment decision-making, portfolio management, and risk control-reveal significant practical challenges. Notably, even cutting-edge models such as DeepSeek-V3 and Claude-3.7-Sonnet incur net trading losses within DeepFund real-time evaluation environment, underscoring the present limitations of LLMs for active fund management. Our code is available at https://github.com/HKUSTDial/DeepFund.

Large language models (LLMs) can exhibit bias in a variety of ways. Such biases can create or exacerbate unfair outcomes for certain groups within a protected attribute, including, but not limited to sex, race, sexual orientation, or age. In this paper, we propose a decision framework that allows practitioners to determine which bias and fairness metrics to use for a specific LLM use case. To establish the framework, we define bias and fairness risks for LLMs, map those risks to a taxonomy of LLM use cases, and then define various metrics to assess each type of risk. Instead of focusing solely on the model itself, we account for both prompt-specific- and model-specific-risk by defining evaluations at the level of an LLM use case, characterized by a model and a population of prompts. Furthermore, because all of the evaluation metrics are calculated solely using the LLM output, our proposed framework is highly practical and easily actionable for practitioners. For streamlined implementation, all evaluation metrics included in the framework are offered in this paper's companion Python toolkit, LangFair. Finally, our experiments demonstrate substantial variation in bias and fairness across use cases, underscoring the importance of use-case-level assessments.

Language Models (LMs) have been shown to leak information about training data through sentence-level membership inference and reconstruction attacks. Understanding the risk of LMs leaking Personally Identifiable Information (PII) has received less attention, which can be attributed to the false assumption that dataset curation techniques such as scrubbing are sufficient to prevent PII leakage. Scrubbing techniques reduce but do not prevent the risk of PII leakage: in practice scrubbing is imperfect and must balance the trade-off between minimizing disclosure and preserving the utility of the dataset. On the other hand, it is unclear to which extent algorithmic defenses such as differential privacy, designed to guarantee sentence- or user-level privacy, prevent PII disclosure. In this work, we introduce rigorous game-based definitions for three types of PII leakage via black-box extraction, inference, and reconstruction attacks with only API access to an LM. We empirically evaluate the attacks against GPT-2 models fine-tuned with and without defenses in three domains: case law, health care, and e-mails. Our main contributions are (i) novel attacks that can extract up to 10times more PII sequences than existing attacks, (ii) showing that sentence-level differential privacy reduces the risk of PII disclosure but still leaks about 3% of PII sequences, and (iii) a subtle connection between record-level membership inference and PII reconstruction. Code to reproduce all experiments in the paper is available at https://github.com/microsoft/analysing_pii_leakage.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) are transforming the AI landscape with advanced reasoning capabilities. While the generated reasoning traces enhance model transparency, they can still contain unsafe content, even when the final answer appears safe. Existing moderation tools, primarily designed for question-answer (QA) pairs, are empirically ineffective at detecting hidden risks embedded in reasoning traces. After identifying the key challenges, we formally define the question-thought (QT) moderation task and propose ReasoningShield, the first safety detection model tailored to identify potential risks in the reasoning trace before reaching the final answer. To construct the model, we synthesize a high-quality reasoning safety detection dataset comprising over 8,000 question-thought pairs spanning ten risk categories and three safety levels. Our dataset construction process incorporates a comprehensive human-AI collaborative annotation pipeline, which achieves over 93% annotation accuracy while significantly reducing human costs. On a diverse set of in-distribution and out-of-distribution benchmarks, ReasoningShield outperforms mainstream content safety moderation models in identifying risks within reasoning traces, with an average F1 score exceeding 0.92. Notably, despite being trained on our QT dataset only, ReasoningShield also demonstrates competitive performance in detecting unsafe question-answer pairs on traditional benchmarks, rivaling baselines trained on 10 times larger datasets and base models, which strongly validates the quality of our dataset. Furthermore, ReasoningShield is built upon compact 1B/3B base models to facilitate lightweight deployment and provides human-friendly risk analysis by default. To foster future research, we publicly release all the resources.

Estimating the impact of continuous treatment variables (e.g., dosage amount) on binary outcomes presents significant challenges in modeling and estimation because many existing approaches make strong assumptions that do not hold for certain continuous treatment variables. For instance, traditional logistic regression makes strong linearity assumptions that do not hold for continuous treatment variables like time of initiation. In this work, we propose a semiparametric regression framework that decomposes effects into two interpretable components: a prognostic score that captures baseline outcome risk based on a combination of clinical, genetic, and sociodemographic features, and a treatment-interaction score that flexibly models the optimal treatment level via a nonparametric link function. By connecting these two parametric scores with Nadaraya-Watson regression, our approach is both interpretable and flexible. The potential of our approach is demonstrated through numerical simulations that show empirical estimation convergence. We conclude by applying our approach to a real-world case study using the International Warfarin Pharmacogenomics Consortium (IWPC) dataset to show our approach's clinical utility by deriving personalized warfarin dosing recommendations that integrate both genetic and clinical data, providing insights towards enhancing patient safety and therapeutic efficacy in anticoagulation therapy.

The maintenance risks of open source software (OSS) projects pose significant threats to the quality, security, and resilience of modern software supply chains. While prior research has proposed diverse approaches for predicting OSS maintenance risk -- leveraging signals ranging from surface features (e.g., stars, commits) to social network analyses and behavioral patterns -- existing methods often suffer from ambiguous operational definitions, limited interpretability, and datasets of insufficient scale or generalizability. In this work, we introduce ``maintenance cessation'', grounded in both explicit archival status and rigorous semantic analysis of project documentation. Building on this foundation, we curate a large-scale, longitudinal dataset of 115,466 GitHub repositories -- encompassing 57,733 confirmed cessation events -- complemented by comprehensive, timeline-based behavioral features. We propose an integrated, multi-perspective feature framework for predicting maintenance cessation, systematically combining user-centric features, maintainer-centric features and project evolution features. AFT survival analysis demonstrates a high C-index (0.846), substantially outperforming models relying only on surface features. Feature ablation and SHAP analysis further confirm the effectiveness and interpretability of our approach. Finally, we demonstrate real-world applicability by deploying a GBSA classifier in the openEuler ecosystem for proactive package risk screening. Our work establishes a scalable, interpretable foundation for maintenance-risk prediction, enabling reproducible risk management across large-scale open source ecosystems.

Large annotated datasets are essential for training robust Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) models for breast cancer detection or risk prediction. However, acquiring such datasets with fine-detailed annotation is both costly and time-consuming. Vision-Language Models (VLMs), such as CLIP, which are pre-trained on large image-text pairs, offer a promising solution by enhancing robustness and data efficiency in medical imaging tasks. This paper introduces a novel Multi-View Mammography and Language Model for breast cancer classification and risk prediction, trained on a dataset of paired mammogram images and synthetic radiology reports. Our MV-MLM leverages multi-view supervision to learn rich representations from extensive radiology data by employing cross-modal self-supervision across image-text pairs. This includes multiple views and the corresponding pseudo-radiology reports. We propose a novel joint visual-textual learning strategy to enhance generalization and accuracy performance over different data types and tasks to distinguish breast tissues or cancer characteristics(calcification, mass) and utilize these patterns to understand mammography images and predict cancer risk. We evaluated our method on both private and publicly available datasets, demonstrating that the proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance in three classification tasks: (1) malignancy classification, (2) subtype classification, and (3) image-based cancer risk prediction. Furthermore, the model exhibits strong data efficiency, outperforming existing fully supervised or VLM baselines while trained on synthetic text reports and without the need for actual radiology reports.

With the increasing availability of wearable devices, photoplethysmography (PPG) has emerged as a promising non-invasive tool for monitoring human hemodynamics. We propose a deep learning framework to estimate vascular age (AI-vascular age) from PPG signals, incorporating a distribution-aware loss to address biases caused by imbalanced data. The model was developed using data from the UK Biobank (UKB), with 98,672 participants in the development cohort and 113,559 participants (144,683 data pairs) for clinical evaluation. After adjusting for key confounders, individuals with a vascular age gap (AI-vascular age minus calendar age) exceeding 9 years had a significantly higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) (HR = 2.37, p < 0.005) and secondary outcomes, including diabetes (HR = 2.69, p < 0.005), hypertension (HR = 2.88, p < 0.005), coronary heart disease (HR = 2.20, p < 0.005), heart failure (HR = 2.15, p < 0.005), myocardial infarction (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005), stroke (HR = 2.55, p < 0.005), and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005). Conversely, participants with a vascular age gap below -9 years exhibited a significantly lower incidence of these outcomes. We further evaluated the longitudinal applicability of AI-vascular age using serial PPG data from the UKB, demonstrating its value in risk stratification by leveraging AI-vascular age at two distinct time points to predict future MACCE incidence. External validation was performed on a MIMIC-III-derived cohort (n = 2,343), where each one-year increase in vascular age gap was significantly associated with elevated in-hospital mortality risk (OR = 1.02, p < 0.005). In conclusion, our study establishes AI-vascular age as a novel, non-invasive digital biomarker for cardiovascular health assessment.

This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances existing GANs architectures by incorporating an additional input sequence derived from preceding data to improve model performance. Two specialized GANs models, the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) and the Tail Generative Adversarial Network (Tail-GAN), were evaluated under the FE-GAN framework. The results demonstrate that FE-GAN significantly outperforms traditional architectures in both VaR and ES estimation. Tail-GAN, leveraging its task-specific loss function, consistently outperforms WGAN in ES estimation, while both models exhibit similar performance in VaR estimation. Despite these promising results, the study acknowledges limitations, including reliance on highly correlated temporal data and restricted applicability to other domains. Future research directions include exploring alternative input generation methods, dynamic forecasting models, and advanced neural network architectures to further enhance GANs-based financial risk estimation.

The rapid evolution of generative AI has expanded the breadth of risks associated with AI systems. While various taxonomies and frameworks exist to classify these risks, the lack of interoperability between them creates challenges for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers seeking to operationalise AI governance. To address this gap, we introduce the AI Risk Atlas, a structured taxonomy that consolidates AI risks from diverse sources and aligns them with governance frameworks. Additionally, we present the Risk Atlas Nexus, a collection of open-source tools designed to bridge the divide between risk definitions, benchmarks, datasets, and mitigation strategies. This knowledge-driven approach leverages ontologies and knowledge graphs to facilitate risk identification, prioritization, and mitigation. By integrating AI-assisted compliance workflows and automation strategies, our framework lowers the barrier to responsible AI adoption. We invite the broader research and open-source community to contribute to this evolving initiative, fostering cross-domain collaboration and ensuring AI governance keeps pace with technological advancements.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and risk-sensitive MDPs are both powerful tools for making decisions in the presence of uncertainties. Previous efforts have aimed to establish their connections, revealing equivalences in specific formulations. This paper introduces a new formulation for risk-sensitive MDPs, which assesses risk in a slightly different manner compared to the classical Markov risk measure (Ruszczy\'nski 2010), and establishes its equivalence with a class of regularized robust MDP (RMDP) problems, including the standard RMDP as a special case. Leveraging this equivalence, we further derive the policy gradient theorem for both problems, proving gradient domination and global convergence of the exact policy gradient method under the tabular setting with direct parameterization. This forms a sharp contrast to the Markov risk measure, known to be potentially non-gradient-dominant (Huang et al. 2021). We also propose a sample-based offline learning algorithm, namely the robust fitted-Z iteration (RFZI), for a specific regularized RMDP problem with a KL-divergence regularization term (or equivalently the risk-sensitive MDP with an entropy risk measure). We showcase its streamlined design and less stringent assumptions due to the equivalence and analyze its sample complexity.

Accurate and contrast-free Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) prediction from Cine MRI sequences remains a critical challenge. Existing methods typically necessitate supervised learning based on human-refined masks in the ventricular myocardium, which become impractical without contrast agents. We introduce a self-supervised framework, namely Codebook-based Temporal-Spatial Learning (CTSL), that learns dynamic, spatiotemporal representations from raw Cine data without requiring segmentation masks. CTSL decouples temporal and spatial features through a multi-view distillation strategy, where the teacher model processes multiple Cine views, and the student model learns from reduced-dimensional Cine-SA sequences. By leveraging codebook-based feature representations and dynamic lesion self-detection through motion cues, CTSL captures intricate temporal dependencies and motion patterns. High-confidence MACE risk predictions are achieved through our model, providing a rapid, non-invasive solution for cardiac risk assessment that outperforms traditional contrast-dependent methods, thereby enabling timely and accessible heart disease diagnosis in clinical settings.

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending connects borrowers and lenders through online platforms but suffers from significant information asymmetry, as lenders often lack sufficient data to assess borrowers' creditworthiness. This paper addresses this challenge by leveraging BERT, a Large Language Model (LLM) known for its ability to capture contextual nuances in text, to generate a risk score based on borrowers' loan descriptions using a dataset from the Lending Club platform. We fine-tune BERT to distinguish between defaulted and non-defaulted loans using the loan descriptions provided by the borrowers. The resulting BERT-generated risk score is then integrated as an additional feature into an XGBoost classifier used at the loan granting stage, where decision-makers have limited information available to guide their decisions. This integration enhances predictive performance, with improvements in balanced accuracy and AUC, highlighting the value of textual features in complementing traditional inputs. Moreover, we find that the incorporation of the BERT score alters how classification models utilize traditional input variables, with these changes varying by loan purpose. These findings suggest that BERT discerns meaningful patterns in loan descriptions, encompassing borrower-specific features, specific purposes, and linguistic characteristics. However, the inherent opacity of LLMs and their potential biases underscore the need for transparent frameworks to ensure regulatory compliance and foster trust. Overall, this study demonstrates how LLM-derived insights interact with traditional features in credit risk modeling, opening new avenues to enhance the explainability and fairness of these models.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models trained via imitation learning suffer from significant performance degradation in data-scarce scenarios due to their reliance on large-scale demonstration datasets. Although reinforcement learning (RL)-based post-training has proven effective in addressing data scarcity, its application to VLA models is hindered by the non-resettable nature of real-world environments. This limitation is particularly critical in high-risk domains such as industrial automation, where interactions often induce state changes that are costly or infeasible to revert. Furthermore, existing VLA approaches lack a reliable mechanism for detecting task completion, leading to redundant actions that reduce overall task success rates. To address these challenges, we propose World-Env, an RL-based post-training framework that replaces physical interaction with a low-cost, world model-based virtual simulator. World-Env consists of two key components: (1) a video-based world simulator that generates temporally consistent future visual observations, and (2) a vision-language model (VLM)-guided instant reflector that provides continuous reward signals and predicts action termination. This simulated environment enables VLA models to safely explore and generalize beyond their initial imitation learning distribution. Our method achieves notable performance gains with as few as five expert demonstrations per task. Experiments on complex robotic manipulation tasks demonstrate that World-Env effectively overcomes the data inefficiency, safety constraints, and inefficient execution of conventional VLA models that rely on real-world interaction, offering a practical and scalable solution for post-training in resource-constrained settings.

Planning module is an essential component of intelligent vehicle study. In this paper, we address the risk-aware planning problem of UGVs through a global-local planning framework which seamlessly integrates risk assessment methods. In particular, a global planning algorithm named Coarse2fine A* is proposed, which incorporates a potential field approach to enhance the safety of the planning results while ensuring the efficiency of the algorithm. A deterministic sampling method for local planning is leveraged and modified to suit off-road environment. It also integrates a risk assessment model to emphasize the avoidance of local risks. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated through simulation experiments by comparing it with baseline algorithms, where the results of Coarse2fine A* are shown to be approximately 30% safer than those of the baseline algorithms. The practicality and effectiveness of the proposed planning framework are validated by deploying it on a real-world system consisting of a control center and a practical UGV platform.

Coronary microvascular disease constitutes a substantial risk to human health. Employing computer-aided analysis and diagnostic systems, medical professionals can intervene early in disease progression, with 3D vessel segmentation serving as a crucial component. Nevertheless, conventional U-Net architectures tend to yield incoherent and imprecise segmentation outcomes, particularly for small vessel structures. While models with attention mechanisms, such as Transformers and large convolutional kernels, demonstrate superior performance, their extensive computational demands during training and inference lead to increased time complexity. In this study, we leverage Fourier domain learning as a substitute for multi-scale convolutional kernels in 3D hierarchical segmentation models, which can reduce computational expenses while preserving global receptive fields within the network. Furthermore, a zero-parameter frequency domain fusion method is designed to improve the skip connections in U-Net architecture. Experimental results on a public dataset and an in-house dataset indicate that our novel Fourier transformation-based network achieves remarkable dice performance (84.37\% on ASACA500 and 80.32\% on ImageCAS) in tubular vessel segmentation tasks and substantially reduces computational requirements without compromising global receptive fields.

Generative models have shown remarkable performance in speech enhancement (SE), achieving superior perceptual quality over traditional discriminative approaches. However, existing generative SE approaches often overlook the risk of hallucination under severe noise, leading to incorrect spoken content or inconsistent speaker characteristics, which we term linguistic and acoustic hallucinations, respectively. We argue that linguistic hallucination stems from models' failure to constrain valid phonological structures and it is a more fundamental challenge. While language models (LMs) are well-suited for capturing the underlying speech structure through modeling the distribution of discrete tokens, existing approaches are limited in learning from noise-corrupted representations, which can lead to contaminated priors and hallucinations. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Phonologically Anchored Speech Enhancer (PASE), a generative SE framework that leverages the robust phonological prior embedded in the pre-trained WavLM model to mitigate hallucinations. First, we adapt WavLM into a denoising expert via representation distillation to clean its final-layer features. Guided by the model's intrinsic phonological prior, this process enables robust denoising while minimizing linguistic hallucinations. To further reduce acoustic hallucinations, we train the vocoder with a dual-stream representation: the high-level phonetic representation provides clean linguistic content, while a low-level acoustic representation retains speaker identity and prosody. Experimental results demonstrate that PASE not only surpasses state-of-the-art discriminative models in perceptual quality, but also significantly outperforms prior generative models with substantially lower linguistic and acoustic hallucinations.

Large Language Models (LLMs) in mental healthcare risk propagating biases that reinforce stigma and harm marginalized groups. While previous research identified concerning trends, systematic methods for detecting intersectional biases remain limited. This work introduces a multi-hop question answering (MHQA) framework to explore LLM response biases in mental health discourse. We analyze content from the Interpretable Mental Health Instruction (IMHI) dataset across symptom presentation, coping mechanisms, and treatment approaches. Using systematic tagging across age, race, gender, and socioeconomic status, we investigate bias patterns at demographic intersections. We evaluate four LLMs: Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Jamba 1.6, Gemma 3, and Llama 4, revealing systematic disparities across sentiment, demographics, and mental health conditions. Our MHQA approach demonstrates superior detection compared to conventional methods, identifying amplification points where biases magnify through sequential reasoning. We implement two debiasing techniques: Roleplay Simulation and Explicit Bias Reduction, achieving 66-94% bias reductions through few-shot prompting with BBQ dataset examples. These findings highlight critical areas where LLMs reproduce mental healthcare biases, providing actionable insights for equitable AI development.

The Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) principle was first proposed by Arjovsky et al. [2019] to address the domain generalization problem by leveraging data heterogeneity from differing experimental conditions. Specifically, IRM seeks to find a data representation under which an optimal classifier remains invariant across all domains. Despite the conceptual appeal of IRM, the effectiveness of the originally proposed invariance penalty has recently been brought into question. In particular, there exists counterexamples for which that invariance penalty can be arbitrarily small for non-invariant data representations. We propose an alternative invariance penalty by revisiting the Gramian matrix of the data representation. We discuss the role of its eigenvalues in the relationship between the risk and the invariance penalty, and demonstrate that it is ill-conditioned for said counterexamples. The proposed approach is guaranteed to recover an invariant representation for linear settings under mild non-degeneracy conditions. Its effectiveness is substantiated by experiments on DomainBed and InvarianceUnitTest, two extensive test beds for domain generalization.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

In this paper, we present an effective data augmentation framework leveraging the Large Language Model (LLM) and Diffusion Model (DM) to tackle the challenges inherent in data-scarce scenarios. Recently, DMs have opened up the possibility of generating synthetic images to complement a few training images. However, increasing the diversity of synthetic images also raises the risk of generating samples outside the target distribution. Our approach addresses this issue by embedding novel semantic information into text prompts via LLM and utilizing real images as visual prompts, thus generating semantically rich images. To ensure that the generated images remain within the target distribution, we dynamically adjust the guidance weight based on each image's CLIPScore to control the diversity. Experimental results show that our method produces synthetic images with enhanced diversity while maintaining adherence to the target distribution. Consequently, our approach proves to be more efficient in the few-shot setting on several benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/kkyuhun94/dalda .

Understanding the current capabilities and risks of AI Scientist systems is essential for ensuring trustworthy and sustainable AI-driven scientific progress while preserving the integrity of the academic ecosystem. To this end, we develop Jr. AI Scientist, a state-of-the-art autonomous AI scientist system that mimics the core research workflow of a novice student researcher: Given the baseline paper from the human mentor, it analyzes its limitations, formulates novel hypotheses for improvement, validates them through rigorous experimentation, and writes a paper with the results. Unlike previous approaches that assume full automation or operate on small-scale code, Jr. AI Scientist follows a well-defined research workflow and leverages modern coding agents to handle complex, multi-file implementations, leading to scientifically valuable contributions. For evaluation, we conducted automated assessments using AI Reviewers, author-led evaluations, and submissions to Agents4Science, a venue dedicated to AI-driven scientific contributions. The findings demonstrate that Jr. AI Scientist generates papers receiving higher review scores than existing fully automated systems. Nevertheless, we identify important limitations from both the author evaluation and the Agents4Science reviews, indicating the potential risks of directly applying current AI Scientist systems and key challenges for future research. Finally, we comprehensively report various risks identified during development. We hope these insights will deepen understanding of current progress and risks in AI Scientist development.

Long-context models (LCMs) have made remarkable strides in recent years, offering users great convenience for handling tasks that involve long context, such as document summarization. As the community increasingly prioritizes the faithfulness of generated results, merely ensuring the accuracy of LCM outputs is insufficient, as it is quite challenging for humans to verify the results from the extremely lengthy context. Yet, although some efforts have been made to assess whether LCMs respond truly based on the context, these works either are limited to specific tasks or heavily rely on external evaluation resources like GPT-4.In this work, we introduce L-CiteEval, a comprehensive multi-task benchmark for long-context understanding with citations, aiming to evaluate both the understanding capability and faithfulness of LCMs. L-CiteEval covers 11 tasks from diverse domains, spanning context lengths from 8K to 48K, and provides a fully automated evaluation suite. Through testing with 11 cutting-edge closed-source and open-source LCMs, we find that although these models show minor differences in their generated results, open-source models substantially trail behind their closed-source counterparts in terms of citation accuracy and recall. This suggests that current open-source LCMs are prone to responding based on their inherent knowledge rather than the given context, posing a significant risk to the user experience in practical applications. We also evaluate the RAG approach and observe that RAG can significantly improve the faithfulness of LCMs, albeit with a slight decrease in the generation quality. Furthermore, we discover a correlation between the attention mechanisms of LCMs and the citation generation process.

Hospitals struggle to predict critical outcomes. Traditional early warning systems, like NEWS and MEWS, rely on static variables and fixed thresholds, limiting their adaptability, accuracy, and personalization. We previously developed the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), an AI model that tokenizes patient health timelines (PHTs) from EHRs and uses transformer-based architectures to predict future PHTs. ETHOS is a versatile framework for developing a wide range of applications. In this work, we develop the Adaptive Risk Estimation System (ARES) that leverages ETHOS to compute dynamic, personalized risk probabilities for clinician-defined critical events. ARES also features a personalized explainability module that highlights key clinical factors influencing risk estimates. We evaluated ARES using the MIMIC-IV v2.2 dataset together with its Emergency Department (ED) extension and benchmarked performance against both classical early warning systems and contemporary machine learning models. The entire dataset was tokenized resulting in 285,622 PHTs, comprising over 360 million tokens. ETHOS outperformed benchmark models in predicting hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and prolonged stays, achieving superior AUC scores. Its risk estimates were robust across demographic subgroups, with calibration curves confirming model reliability. The explainability module provided valuable insights into patient-specific risk factors. ARES, powered by ETHOS, advances predictive healthcare AI by delivering dynamic, real-time, personalized risk estimation with patient-specific explainability. Although our results are promising, the clinical impact remains uncertain. Demonstrating ARES's true utility in real-world settings will be the focus of our future work. We release the source code to facilitate future research.

Clinical trials are crucial for drug development but are time consuming, expensive, and often burdensome on patients. More importantly, clinical trials face uncertain outcomes due to issues with efficacy, safety, or problems with patient recruitment. If we were better at predicting the results of clinical trials, we could avoid having to run trials that will inevitably fail more resources could be devoted to trials that are likely to succeed. In this paper, we propose Hierarchical INteraction Network (HINT) for more general, clinical trial outcome predictions for all diseases based on a comprehensive and diverse set of web data including molecule information of the drugs, target disease information, trial protocol and biomedical knowledge. HINT first encode these multi-modal data into latent embeddings, where an imputation module is designed to handle missing data. Next, these embeddings will be fed into the knowledge embedding module to generate knowledge embeddings that are pretrained using external knowledge on pharmaco-kinetic properties and trial risk from the web. Then the interaction graph module will connect all the embedding via domain knowledge to fully capture various trial components and their complex relations as well as their influences on trial outcomes. Finally, HINT learns a dynamic attentive graph neural network to predict trial outcome. Comprehensive experimental results show that HINT achieves strong predictive performance, obtaining 0.772, 0.607, 0.623, 0.703 on PR-AUC for Phase I, II, III, and indication outcome prediction, respectively. It also consistently outperforms the best baseline method by up to 12.4\% on PR-AUC.

Domain Generalization aims to develop models that can generalize to novel and unseen data distributions. In this work, we study how model architectures and pre-training objectives impact feature richness and propose a method to effectively leverage them for domain generalization. Specifically, given a pre-trained feature space, we first discover latent domain structures, referred to as pseudo-domains, that capture domain-specific variations in an unsupervised manner. Next, we augment existing classifiers with these complementary pseudo-domain representations making them more amenable to diverse unseen test domains. We analyze how different pre-training feature spaces differ in the domain-specific variances they capture. Our empirical studies reveal that features from diffusion models excel at separating domains in the absence of explicit domain labels and capture nuanced domain-specific information. On 5 datasets, we show that our very simple framework improves generalization to unseen domains by a maximum test accuracy improvement of over 4% compared to the standard baseline Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM). Crucially, our method outperforms most algorithms that access domain labels during training.

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density distribution of autonomous systems' forward reachable states online. In this paper, we study the use of such approach in combination with model predictive control for verifiable safe path planning under uncertainties. We first use the learned density distribution to compute the risk of collision online. If such risk exceeds the acceptable threshold, our method will plan for a new path around the previous trajectory, with the risk of collision below the threshold. Our method is well-suited to handle systems with uncertainties and complicated dynamics as our data-driven approach does not need an analytical form of the systems' dynamics and can estimate forward state density with an arbitrary initial distribution of uncertainties. We design two challenging scenarios (autonomous driving and hovercraft control) for safe motion planning in environments with obstacles under system uncertainties. We first show that our density estimation approach can reach a similar accuracy as the Monte-Carlo-based method while using only 0.01X training samples. By leveraging the estimated risk, our algorithm achieves the highest success rate in goal reaching when enforcing the safety rate above 0.99.

In federated learning, participating clients typically possess non-i.i.d. data, posing a significant challenge to generalization to unseen distributions. To address this, we propose a Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization scheme called WAFL. Leveraging its duality, we frame WAFL as an empirical surrogate risk minimization problem, and solve it using a local SGD-based algorithm with convergence guarantees. We show that the robustness of WAFL is more general than related approaches, and the generalization bound is robust to all adversarial distributions inside the Wasserstein ball (ambiguity set). Since the center location and radius of the Wasserstein ball can be suitably modified, WAFL shows its applicability not only in robustness but also in domain adaptation. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that WAFL generalizes better than the vanilla FedAvg in non-i.i.d. settings, and is more robust than other related methods in distribution shift settings. Further, using benchmark datasets we show that WAFL is capable of generalizing to unseen target domains.

Ever-larger language models with ever-increasing capabilities are by now well-established text processing tools. Alas, information extraction tasks such as named entity recognition are still largely unaffected by this progress as they are primarily based on the previous generation of encoder-only transformer models. Here, we propose a simple yet effective approach, Informed Named Entity Recognition Decoding (iNERD), which treats named entity recognition as a generative process. It leverages the language understanding capabilities of recent generative models in a future-proof manner and employs an informed decoding scheme incorporating the restricted nature of information extraction into open-ended text generation, improving performance and eliminating any risk of hallucinations. We coarse-tune our model on a merged named entity corpus to strengthen its performance, evaluate five generative language models on eight named entity recognition datasets, and achieve remarkable results, especially in an environment with an unknown entity class set, demonstrating the adaptability of the approach.

As vision-language models (VLMs) gain prominence, their multimodal interfaces also introduce new safety vulnerabilities, making the safety evaluation challenging and critical. Existing red-teaming efforts are either restricted to a narrow set of adversarial patterns or depend heavily on manual engineering, lacking scalable exploration of emerging real-world VLM vulnerabilities. To bridge this gap, we propose ARMs, an adaptive red-teaming agent that systematically conducts comprehensive risk assessments for VLMs. Given a target harmful behavior or risk definition, ARMs automatically optimizes diverse red-teaming strategies with reasoning-enhanced multi-step orchestration, to effectively elicit harmful outputs from target VLMs. We propose 11 novel multimodal attack strategies, covering diverse adversarial patterns of VLMs (e.g., reasoning hijacking, contextual cloaking), and integrate 17 red-teaming algorithms into ARMs via model context protocol (MCP). To balance the diversity and effectiveness of the attack, we design a layered memory with an epsilon-greedy attack exploration algorithm. Extensive experiments on instance- and policy-based benchmarks show that ARMs achieves SOTA attack success rates, exceeding baselines by an average of 52.1% and surpassing 90% on Claude-4-Sonnet. We show that the diversity of red-teaming instances generated by ARMs is significantly higher, revealing emerging vulnerabilities in VLMs. Leveraging ARMs, we construct ARMs-Bench, a large-scale multimodal safety dataset comprising over 30K red-teaming instances spanning 51 diverse risk categories, grounded in both real-world multimodal threats and regulatory risks. Safety fine-tuning with ARMs-Bench substantially improves the robustness of VLMs while preserving their general utility, providing actionable guidance to improve multimodal safety alignment against emerging threats.

Multi-modal foundation models like OpenFlamingo, LLaVA, and GPT-4 are increasingly used for various real-world tasks. Prior work has shown that these models are highly vulnerable to adversarial attacks on the vision modality. These attacks can be leveraged to spread fake information or defraud users, and thus pose a significant risk, which makes the robustness of large multi-modal foundation models a pressing problem. The CLIP model, or one of its variants, is used as a frozen vision encoder in many vision-language models (VLMs), e.g. LLaVA and OpenFlamingo. We propose an unsupervised adversarial fine-tuning scheme to obtain a robust CLIP vision encoder, which yields robustness on all vision down-stream tasks (VLMs, zero-shot classification) that rely on CLIP. In particular, we show that stealth-attacks on users of VLMs by a malicious third party providing manipulated images are no longer possible once one replaces the original CLIP model with our robust one. No retraining or fine-tuning of the VLM is required. The code and robust models are available at https://github.com/chs20/RobustVLM

We present SURE-Score: an approach for learning score-based generative models using training samples corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. When a large training set of clean samples is available, solving inverse problems via score-based (diffusion) generative models trained on the underlying fully-sampled data distribution has recently been shown to outperform end-to-end supervised deep learning. In practice, such a large collection of training data may be prohibitively expensive to acquire in the first place. In this work, we present an approach for approximately learning a score-based generative model of the clean distribution, from noisy training data. We formulate and justify a novel loss function that leverages Stein's unbiased risk estimate to jointly denoise the data and learn the score function via denoising score matching, while using only the noisy samples. We demonstrate the generality of SURE-Score by learning priors and applying posterior sampling to ill-posed inverse problems in two practical applications from different domains: compressive wireless multiple-input multiple-output channel estimation and accelerated 2D multi-coil magnetic resonance imaging reconstruction, where we demonstrate competitive reconstruction performance when learning at signal-to-noise ratio values of 0 and 10 dB, respectively.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) models excel in knowledge-intensive tasks, especially under few-shot learning constraints. We introduce CoRAG, a framework extending RAG to collaborative settings, where clients jointly train a shared model using a collaborative passage store. To evaluate CoRAG, we introduce CRAB, a benchmark for collaborative homogeneous open-domain question answering. Our experiments demonstrate that CoRAG consistently outperforms both parametric collaborative learning methods and locally trained RAG models in low-resource scenarios. Further analysis reveals the critical importance of relevant passages within the shared store, the surprising benefits of incorporating irrelevant passages, and the potential for hard negatives to negatively impact performance. This introduces a novel consideration in collaborative RAG: the trade-off between leveraging a collectively enriched knowledge base and the potential risk of incorporating detrimental passages from other clients. Our findings underscore the viability of CoRAG, while also highlighting key design challenges and promising avenues for future research.

Test-time prompt tuning enhances zero-shot generalization of vision-language models but tends to ignore the relatedness among test samples during inference. Online test-time prompt tuning provides a simple way to leverage the information in previous test samples, albeit with the risk of prompt collapse due to error accumulation. To enhance test-time prompt tuning, we propose DynaPrompt, short for dynamic test-time prompt tuning, exploiting relevant data distribution information while reducing error accumulation. Built on an online prompt buffer, DynaPrompt adaptively selects and optimizes the relevant prompts for each test sample during tuning. Specifically, we introduce a dynamic prompt selection strategy based on two metrics: prediction entropy and probability difference. For unseen test data information, we develop dynamic prompt appending, which allows the buffer to append new prompts and delete the inactive ones. By doing so, the prompts are optimized to exploit beneficial information on specific test data, while alleviating error accumulation. Experiments on fourteen datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of dynamic test-time prompt tuning.

Conventional wisdom suggests that neural network predictions tend to be unpredictable and overconfident when faced with out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Our work reassesses this assumption for neural networks with high-dimensional inputs. Rather than extrapolating in arbitrary ways, we observe that neural network predictions often tend towards a constant value as input data becomes increasingly OOD. Moreover, we find that this value often closely approximates the optimal constant solution (OCS), i.e., the prediction that minimizes the average loss over the training data without observing the input. We present results showing this phenomenon across 8 datasets with different distributional shifts (including CIFAR10-C and ImageNet-R, S), different loss functions (cross entropy, MSE, and Gaussian NLL), and different architectures (CNNs and transformers). Furthermore, we present an explanation for this behavior, which we first validate empirically and then study theoretically in a simplified setting involving deep homogeneous networks with ReLU activations. Finally, we show how one can leverage our insights in practice to enable risk-sensitive decision-making in the presence of OOD inputs.

Federated Learning (FL) has recently emerged as a promising distributed machine learning framework to preserve clients' privacy, by allowing multiple clients to upload the gradients calculated from their local data to a central server. Recent studies find that the exchanged gradients also take the risk of privacy leakage, e.g., an attacker can invert the shared gradients and recover sensitive data against an FL system by leveraging pre-trained generative adversarial networks (GAN) as prior knowledge. However, performing gradient inversion attacks in the latent space of the GAN model limits their expression ability and generalizability. To tackle these challenges, we propose Gradient Inversion over Feature Domains (GIFD), which disassembles the GAN model and searches the feature domains of the intermediate layers. Instead of optimizing only over the initial latent code, we progressively change the optimized layer, from the initial latent space to intermediate layers closer to the output images. In addition, we design a regularizer to avoid unreal image generation by adding a small {l_1} ball constraint to the searching range. We also extend GIFD to the out-of-distribution (OOD) setting, which weakens the assumption that the training sets of GANs and FL tasks obey the same data distribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can achieve pixel-level reconstruction and is superior to the existing methods. Notably, GIFD also shows great generalizability under different defense strategy settings and batch sizes.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

Under the pandemic of COVID-19, people experiencing COVID19-related symptoms or exposed to risk factors have a pressing need to consult doctors. Due to hospital closure, a lot of consulting services have been moved online. Because of the shortage of medical professionals, many people cannot receive online consultations timely. To address this problem, we aim to develop a medical dialogue system that can provide COVID19-related consultations. We collected two dialogue datasets -- CovidDialog -- (in English and Chinese respectively) containing conversations between doctors and patients about COVID-19. On these two datasets, we train several dialogue generation models based on Transformer, GPT, and BERT-GPT. Since the two COVID-19 dialogue datasets are small in size, which bear high risk of overfitting, we leverage transfer learning to mitigate data deficiency. Specifically, we take the pretrained models of Transformer, GPT, and BERT-GPT on dialog datasets and other large-scale texts, then finetune them on our CovidDialog tasks. We perform both automatic and human evaluation of responses generated by these models. The results show that the generated responses are promising in being doctor-like, relevant to the conversation history, and clinically informative. The data and code are available at https://github.com/UCSD-AI4H/COVID-Dialogue.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities out of box for a wide range of applications, yet accuracy still remains a major growth area, especially in mission-critical domains such as biomedicine. An effective method to calibrate the confidence level on LLM responses is essential to automatically detect errors and facilitate human-in-the-loop verification. An important source of calibration signals stems from expert-stipulated programmatic supervision, which is often available at low cost but has its own limitations such as noise and coverage. In this paper, we introduce a Pareto optimal self-supervision framework that can leverage available programmatic supervision to systematically calibrate LLM responses by producing a risk score for every response, without any additional manual efforts. This is accomplished by learning a harmonizer model to align LLM output with other available supervision sources, which would assign higher risk scores to more uncertain LLM responses and facilitate error correction. Experiments on standard relation extraction tasks in biomedical and general domains demonstrate the promise of this approach, with our proposed risk scores highly correlated with the real error rate of LLMs. For the most uncertain test instances, dynamic prompting based on our proposed risk scores results in significant accuracy improvement for off-the-shelf LLMs, boosting GPT-3 results past state-of-the-art (SOTA) weak supervision and GPT-4 results past SOTA supervised results on challenging evaluation datasets.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in financial reasoning and market understanding. Multi-agent LLM frameworks such as TradingAgent and FINMEM augment these models to long-horizon investment tasks, leveraging fundamental and sentiment-based inputs for strategic decision-making. However, such systems are ill-suited for the high-speed, precision-critical demands of High-Frequency Trading (HFT). HFT requires rapid, risk-aware decisions based on structured, short-horizon signals, including technical indicators, chart patterns, and trend-based features, distinct from the long-term semantic reasoning typical of traditional financial LLM applications. To this end, we introduce QuantAgent, the first multi-agent LLM framework explicitly designed for high-frequency algorithmic trading. The system decomposes trading into four specialized agents, Indicator, Pattern, Trend, and Risk, each equipped with domain-specific tools and structured reasoning capabilities to capture distinct aspects of market dynamics over short temporal windows. In zero-shot evaluations across ten financial instruments, including Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures, QuantAgent demonstrates superior performance in both predictive accuracy and cumulative return over 4-hour trading intervals, outperforming strong neural and rule-based baselines. Our findings suggest that combining structured financial priors with language-native reasoning unlocks new potential for traceable, real-time decision systems in high-frequency financial markets.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty.

Offline preference-based reinforcement learning (PbRL) typically operates in two phases: first, use human preferences to learn a reward model and annotate rewards for a reward-free offline dataset; second, learn a policy by optimizing the learned reward via offline RL. However, accurately modeling step-wise rewards from trajectory-level preference feedback presents inherent challenges. The reward bias introduced, particularly the overestimation of predicted rewards, leads to optimistic trajectory stitching, which undermines the pessimism mechanism critical to the offline RL phase. To address this challenge, we propose In-Dataset Trajectory Return Regularization (DTR) for offline PbRL, which leverages conditional sequence modeling to mitigate the risk of learning inaccurate trajectory stitching under reward bias. Specifically, DTR employs Decision Transformer and TD-Learning to strike a balance between maintaining fidelity to the behavior policy with high in-dataset trajectory returns and selecting optimal actions based on high reward labels. Additionally, we introduce an ensemble normalization technique that effectively integrates multiple reward models, balancing the tradeoff between reward differentiation and accuracy. Empirical evaluations on various benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of DTR over other state-of-the-art baselines.

Heart disease, also known as cardiovascular disease, is a prevalent and critical medical condition characterized by the impairment of the heart and blood vessels, leading to various complications such as coronary artery disease, heart failure, and myocardial infarction. The timely and accurate detection of heart disease is of paramount importance in clinical practice. Early identification of individuals at risk enables proactive interventions, preventive measures, and personalized treatment strategies to mitigate the progression of the disease and reduce adverse outcomes. In recent years, the field of heart disease detection has witnessed notable advancements due to the integration of sophisticated technologies and computational approaches. These include machine learning algorithms, data mining techniques, and predictive modeling frameworks that leverage vast amounts of clinical and physiological data to improve diagnostic accuracy and risk stratification. In this work, we propose to detect heart disease from ECG images using cutting-edge technologies, namely vision transformer models. These models are Google-Vit, Microsoft-Beit, and Swin-Tiny. To the best of our knowledge, this is the initial endeavor concentrating on the detection of heart diseases through image-based ECG data by employing cuttingedge technologies namely, transformer models. To demonstrate the contribution of the proposed framework, the performance of vision transformer models are compared with state-of-the-art studies. Experiment results show that the proposed framework exhibits remarkable classification results.

Despite the progress in machine translation quality estimation and evaluation in the last years, decoding in neural machine translation (NMT) is mostly oblivious to this and centers around finding the most probable translation according to the model (MAP decoding), approximated with beam search. In this paper, we bring together these two lines of research and propose quality-aware decoding for NMT, by leveraging recent breakthroughs in reference-free and reference-based MT evaluation through various inference methods like N-best reranking and minimum Bayes risk decoding. We perform an extensive comparison of various possible candidate generation and ranking methods across four datasets and two model classes and find that quality-aware decoding consistently outperforms MAP-based decoding according both to state-of-the-art automatic metrics (COMET and BLEURT) and to human assessments. Our code is available at https://github.com/deep-spin/qaware-decode.

State density distribution, in contrast to worst-case reachability, can be leveraged for safety-related problems to better quantify the likelihood of the risk for potentially hazardous situations. In this work, we propose a data-driven method to compute the density distribution of reachable states for nonlinear and even black-box systems. Our semi-supervised approach learns system dynamics and the state density jointly from trajectory data, guided by the fact that the state density evolution follows the Liouville partial differential equation. With the help of neural network reachability tools, our approach can estimate the set of all possible future states as well as their density. Moreover, we could perform online safety verification with probability ranges for unsafe behaviors to occur. We use an extensive set of experiments to show that our learned solution can produce a much more accurate estimate on density distribution, and can quantify risks less conservatively and flexibly comparing with worst-case analysis.