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Jan 6

The Redshift Evolution of the $M_\bullet-M_\star$ Relation for JWST's Supermassive Black Holes at $z > 4$

JWST has detected many overmassive galactic systems at z > 4, where the mass of the black hole, M_bullet, is 10-100 times larger than expected from local relations, given the host's stellar mass, M_star. This Letter presents a model to describe these overmassive systems in the high-z Universe. We suggest that the black hole mass is the main driver of high-z star formation quenching. SMBHs globally impact their high-z galaxies because their hosts are physically small, and the black holes have duty cycles close to unity at z > 4. In this regime, we assume that black hole mass growth is regulated by the quasar's output, while stellar mass growth is quenched by it and uncorrelated to the global properties of the host halo. We find that the ratio M_bullet/M_star controls the average star formation efficiency: if M_bullet/M_star > 8times 10^{18} (n Lambda/f_{edd})[(Omega_b M_h)/(Omega_m M_star) - 1], then the galaxy is unable to form stars efficiently. Once this ratio exceeds the threshold, a runaway process brings the originally overmassive system towards the local M_bullet - M_star relation. Furthermore, the M_bullet - M_star relation evolves with redshift as propto (1+z)^{5/2}. At z sim 5, we find an overmassive factor of sim 55, in excellent agreement with current JWST data and the high-z relation inferred from those. Extending the black hole horizon farther in redshift and lower in mass will test this model and improve our understanding of the early co-evolution of black holes and galaxies.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 8, 2024

RABBITS -- II. The impact of AGN feedback on coalescing supermassive black holes in disc and elliptical galaxy mergers

In this study of the `Resolving supermAssive Black hole Binaries In galacTic hydrodynamical Simulations' (RABBITS) series, we investigate the orbital evolution of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) during galaxy mergers. We simulate both disc and elliptical galaxy mergers using the KETJU code, which can simultaneously follow galaxy (hydro-)dynamics and small-scale SMBH dynamics with post-Newtonian corrections. With our SMBH binary subgrid model, we show how active galactic nuclei (AGNs) feedback affects galaxy properties and SMBH coalescence. We find that simulations without AGN feedback exhibit excessive star formation, resulting in merger remnants that deviate from observed properties. Kinetic AGN feedback proves more effective than thermal AGN feedback in expelling gas from the centre and quenching star formation. The different central galaxy properties, which are a result of distinct AGN feedback models, lead to varying rates of SMBH orbital decay. In the dynamical friction phase, galaxies with higher star formation and higher SMBH masses possess denser centres, become more resistant to tidal stripping, experience greater dynamical friction, and consequently form SMBH binaries earlier. As AGN feedback reduces gas densities in the centres, dynamical friction by stars dominates over gas. In the SMBH hardening phase, compared to elliptical mergers, disc mergers exhibit higher central densities of newly formed stars, resulting in accelerated SMBH hardening and shorter merger time-scales (i.e. lesssim 500 Myr versus gtrsim 1 Gyr). Our findings highlight the importance of AGN feedback and its numerical implementation in understanding the SMBH coalescing process, a key focus for low-frequency gravitational wave observatories.

  • 8 authors
·
Nov 2, 2023

Formation of supermassive stars and dense star clusters in metal-poor clouds exposed to strong FUV radiation

The direct collapse scenario, which predicts the formation of supermassive stars (SMSs) as precursors to supermassive black holes (SMBHs), has been explored primarily under the assumption of metal-free conditions. However, environments exposed to strong far-ultraviolet (FUV) radiation, which is another requirement for the direct collapse, are often chemically enriched to varying degrees. In this study, we perform radiation hydrodynamic simulations of star-cluster formation in clouds with finite metallicities, Z=10^{-6} to 10^{-2} Z_{odot}, incorporating detailed thermal and chemical processes and radiative feedback from forming stars. Extending the simulations to approximately two million years, we demonstrate that SMSs with masses exceeding 10^4~M_odot can form even in metal-enriched clouds with Z lesssim 10^{-3} Z_{odot}. The accretion process in these cases, driven by "super-competitive accretion," preferentially channels gas into central massive stars in spite of small (sub-pc) scale fragmentation. At Z simeq 10^{-2} Z_{odot}, however, enhanced cooling leads to intense fragmentation on larger scales, resulting in the formation of dense star clusters dominated by very massive stars with 10^3 M_{odot} rather than SMSs. These clusters resemble young massive or globular clusters observed in the distant and local universe, exhibiting compact morphologies and high stellar surface densities. Our findings suggest that SMS formation is viable below a metallicity threshold of approximately 10^{-3} Z_{odot}, significantly increasing the number density of massive seed black holes to levels sufficient to account for the ubiquitous SMBHs observed in the local universe. Moreover, above this metallicity, this scenario naturally explains the transition from SMS formation to dense stellar cluster formation.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 19, 2024

Red, hot, and very metal poor: extreme properties of a massive accreting black hole in the first 500 Myr

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has recently discovered a new population of objects at high redshift referred to as `Little Red Dots' (LRDs). Their nature currently remains elusive, despite their surprisingly high inferred number densities. This emerging population of red point-like sources is reshaping our view of the early Universe and may shed light on the formation of high-redshift supermassive black holes. Here we present a spectroscopically confirmed LRD CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 at z_{rm spec}=8.6319pm 0.0005 hosting an Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN), using JWST data. This source shows the typical spectral shape of an LRD (blue UV and red optical continuum, unresolved in JWST imaging), along with broad Hbeta line emission, detection of high-ionization emission lines (CIV, NIV]) and very high electron temperature indicative of the presence of AGN. This is also combined with a very low metallicity (Z<0.1 Z_odot). The presence of all these diverse features in one source makes CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 unique. We show that the inferred black hole mass of CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 (M_{rm BH}=1.0^{+0.6}_{-0.4}times 10^{8}rm ~M_odot) strongly challenges current standard theoretical models and simulations of black hole formation, and forces us to adopt `ad hoc' prescriptions. Indeed if massive seeds, or light seeds with super-Eddington accretion, are considered, the observed BH mass of CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 at z=8.6 can be reproduced. Moreover, the black hole is over-massive compared to its host, relative to the local M_{rm BH}-M_* relations, pointing towards an earlier and faster evolution of the black hole compared to its host galaxy.

  • 32 authors
·
Dec 6, 2024

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) VIII. The Emergence of Passive Galaxies at $z \geqslant 5$

Passive galaxies are ubiquitous in the local universe, and various physical channels have been proposed that lead to this passivity. To date, robust passive galaxy candidates have been detected up to z leqslant 5, but it is still unknown if they exist at higher redshifts, what their relative abundances are, and what causes them to stop forming stars. We present predictions from the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a series of zoom simulations of a range of overdensities using the EAGLE code. Passive galaxies occur naturally in the EAGLE model at high redshift, and are in good agreement with number density estimates from HST and early JWST results at 3 leqslant z leqslant 5. Due to the unique FLARES approach, we extend these predictions to higher redshifts, finding passive galaxy populations up to z sim 8. Feedback from supermassive black holes is the main driver of passivity, leading to reduced gas fractions and star forming gas reservoirs. We find that passive galaxies at z geqslant 5 are not identified in the typical UVJ selection space due to their still relatively young stellar populations, and present new rest--frame selection regions. We also present NIRCam and MIRI fluxes, and find that significant numbers of passive galaxies at z geqslant 5 should be detectable in upcoming wide surveys with JWST. Finally, we present JWST colour distributions, with new selection regions in the observer--frame for identifying these early passive populations.

  • 12 authors
·
Nov 14, 2022

Super-Eddington Accretion in Quasars

This review provides an observational perspective on the fundamental properties of super-Eddington accretion onto supermassive black holes in quasars. It begins by outlining the selection criteria, particularly focusing on optical and UV broad-line intensity ratios, used to identify a population of unobscured super-Eddington candidates. Several defining features place these candidates at the extreme end of the Population A in main sequence of quasars: among them are the highest observed singly-ionized iron emission, extreme outflow velocities in UV resonance lines, and unusually high metal abundances. These key properties reflect the coexistence of a virialized sub-system within the broad-line region alongside powerful outflows, with the observed gas enrichment likely driven by nuclear or circumnuclear star formation. The most compelling evidence for the occurrence of super-Eddington accretion onto supermassive black holes comes from recent observations of massive black holes at early cosmic epochs. These black holes require rapid growth rates that are only achievable through radiatively inefficient super-Eddington accretion. Furthermore, extreme Eddington ratios, close to or slightly exceeding unity, are consistent with the saturation of radiative output per unit mass predicted by accretion disk theory for super-Eddington accretion rates. The extreme properties of super-Eddington candidates suggest that these quasars could make them stable and well-defined cosmological distance indicators, leveraging the correlation between broad-line width and luminosity expected in virialized systems. Finally, several analogies with accretion processes around stellar-mass black holes, particularly in the high/soft state, are explored to provide additional insight into the mechanisms driving super-Eddington accretion.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 20, 2025

Probing X-ray Timing and Spectral Variability in the Blazar PKS 2155-304 Over a Decade of XMM-Newton Observations

Blazars, a class of active galactic nuclei (AGN) powered by supermassive black holes, are known for their remarkable variability across multiple timescales and wavelengths. With advancements in both ground- and space-based telescopes, our understanding of AGN central engines has significantly improved. However, the mechanisms driving this variability remain elusive, and continue to fascinate both theorists and observers alike. The primary objective of this study is to constrain the X-ray variability properties of the TeV blazar PKS 2155-304. We conduct a comprehensive X-ray spectral and timing analysis, focusing on both long-term and intra-day variability. This analysis uses data from 22 epochs of XMM-Newton EPIC-pn observations, collected over 15 years (2000-2014). To investigate the variability of the source, we applied both timing and spectral analyses. For the timing analysis, we estimated fractional variability, variability amplitude, minimum variability timescales, flux distribution, and power spectral density (PSD). In the spectral analysis, we fitted the X-ray spectra using power-law, log-parabola, and broken power-law (BPL) models to determine the best-fitting parameters. Additionally, we studied the hardness ratio (HR). We observed moderate intra-day variability in most of the light curves. Seven out of the twenty-two observations showed a clear bimodal flux distribution, indicating the presence of two distinct flux states. Our analysis revealed a variable power-law PSD slope. Most HR plots did not show significant variation with flux, except for one observation (OBSID 0124930501), where HR increased with flux (Count/s). The fitted X-ray spectra favored the BPL model for the majority of observations. The findings of this work shed light on the intraday variability of blazars, providing insights into the non-thermal jet processes that drive the observed flux variations.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 2, 2024

Euclid Quick Data Release (Q1). Active galactic nuclei identification using diffusion-based inpainting of Euclid VIS images

Light emission from galaxies exhibit diverse brightness profiles, influenced by factors such as galaxy type, structural features and interactions with other galaxies. Elliptical galaxies feature more uniform light distributions, while spiral and irregular galaxies have complex, varied light profiles due to their structural heterogeneity and star-forming activity. In addition, galaxies with an active galactic nucleus (AGN) feature intense, concentrated emission from gas accretion around supermassive black holes, superimposed on regular galactic light, while quasi-stellar objects (QSO) are the extreme case of the AGN emission dominating the galaxy. The challenge of identifying AGN and QSO has been discussed many times in the literature, often requiring multi-wavelength observations. This paper introduces a novel approach to identify AGN and QSO from a single image. Diffusion models have been recently developed in the machine-learning literature to generate realistic-looking images of everyday objects. Utilising the spatial resolving power of the Euclid VIS images, we created a diffusion model trained on one million sources, without using any source pre-selection or labels. The model learns to reconstruct light distributions of normal galaxies, since the population is dominated by them. We condition the prediction of the central light distribution by masking the central few pixels of each source and reconstruct the light according to the diffusion model. We further use this prediction to identify sources that deviate from this profile by examining the reconstruction error of the few central pixels regenerated in each source's core. Our approach, solely using VIS imaging, features high completeness compared to traditional methods of AGN and QSO selection, including optical, near-infrared, mid-infrared, and X-rays.

  • 274 authors
·
Mar 19, 2025

The GRACE project: Hard X-ray giant radio galaxies and their duty cycle

The advent of new generation radio telescopes is opening new possibilities on the classification and study of extragalactic high-energy sources, specially the underrepresented ones like radio galaxies. Among these, Giant Radio Galaxies (GRG, larger than 0.7 Mpc) are among the most extreme manifestations of the accretion/ejection processes on supermassive black holes. Our recent studies have shown that GRG can be up to four times more abundant in hard X-ray selected (i.e. from INTEGRAL/IBIS and Swift/BAT at >20 keV) samples and, most interestingly, the majority of them present signs of restarted radio activity. This makes them the ideal test-bed to study the so far unknown duty cycle of jets in active galactic nuclei. Open questions in the field include: How and when jets are restarted? How jets evolve and what's their dynamic? What is the jet's duty cycle and what triggers them? Our group has recently collected a wealth of radio data on these high-energy selected GRGs, allowing us to study their jet formation and evolution from the pc to kpc scales, across different activity epochs. In particular, thanks to our EVN large programme, we were able to probe the new radio phase in the core of these giants. Furthermore, we are devoting an effort to the exploitation of new radio surveys data for the discovery of new classes of counterparts of Fermi/LAT catalogues. In particular, we are unveiling the hidden population of radio galaxies associated with gamma-ray sources.

  • 17 authors
·
Jan 13, 2025

EPOCHS Paper V. The dependence of galaxy formation on galaxy structure at z < 7 from JWST observations

We measure the broad impact of galaxy structure on galaxy formation by examining the ongoing star formation and integrated star formation history as revealed through the stellar masses of galaxies at z < 7 based on JWST CEERS data from the Extended Groth Strip (EGS). Using the morphological catalog of 3965 visually classified JWST galaxies from Ferreira et al. (2023), we investigate the evolution of stars, and when they form, as a function of morphological type as well as galaxies classified as passive and starburst through spectral energy distributions. Although disk galaxies dominate the structures of galaxies at z < 7, we find that these disks are in general either `passive', or on the main-sequence of star formation, and do not contain a large population of starburst galaxies. We also find no significant correlation between morphological type and the star formation rate or colours of galaxies at z < 7. In fact, we find that the morphologically classified `spheroids' tend to be blue and are not found to be predominately passive systems at z > 1.5. We also find that the stellar mass function for disk galaxies does not evolve significantly during this time, whereas other galaxy types, such as the peculiar population, evolve dramatically, declining at lower redshifts. This indicates that massive peculiars are more common at higher redshifts. We further find that up to z sim 7, the specific star formation rate (sSFR) does not vary with visual morphology, but strongly depends on stellar mass and internal galaxy mass density. This demonstrates that at early epochs galaxy assembly is a mass-driven, rather than a morphologically-driven, process. Quenching of star formation is therefore a mass-dominated process throughout the universe's history, likely due to the presence of supermassive black holes.

  • 14 authors
·
May 1, 2024

Identifying supermassive black hole recoil in elliptical galaxies

We study stellar core growth in simulations of merging massive (M_star>10^{11},M_odot) elliptical galaxies by a supermassive black hole (SMBH) displaced by gravitational wave induced recoil velocity. With controlled, dense sampling of the SMBH recoil velocity, we find the core radius originally formed by SMBH binary scouring can grow by a factor of 2-3 when the recoil velocity exceeds sim50 per cent of the central escape velocity, and the mass deficit grows by up to a factor of sim4. Using Bayesian inference we predict the distribution of stellar core sizes formed through this process to peak at sim1,kpc. An orbital decomposition of stellar particles within the core reveals that radial orbits dominate over tube orbits when the recoil velocity exceeds the velocity dispersion of the core, whereas tube orbits dominate for the lowest recoil kicks. A change in orbital structure is reflected in the anisotropy parameter, with a central tangential bias present only for recoil velocities less than the local stellar velocity dispersion. Emulating current integral field unit observations of the stellar line-of-sight velocity distribution, we uncover a distinct signature in the Gauss-Hermite symmetric deviation coefficient h_4 that uniquely constrains the core size due to binary scouring. This signature is insensitive to the later evolution of the stellar mass distribution due to SMBH recoil. Our results provide a novel method to estimate the SMBH recoil magnitude from observations of local elliptical galaxies, and implies these galaxies primarily experienced recoil velocities less than the stellar velocity dispersion of the core.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 17, 2024

Causal Discovery in Astrophysics: Unraveling Supermassive Black Hole and Galaxy Coevolution

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

  • 12 authors
·
Oct 1, 2024

KETJU -- resolving small-scale supermassive black hole dynamics in GADGET-4

We present the new public version of the KETJU supermassive black hole (SMBH) dynamics module, as implemented into GADGET-4. KETJU adds a small region around each SMBH where the dynamics of the SMBHs and stellar particles are integrated using an algorithmically regularised integrator instead of the leapfrog integrator with gravitational softening used by GADGET-4. This enables modelling SMBHs as point particles even during close interactions with stellar particles or other SMBHs, effectively removing the spatial resolution limitation caused by gravitational softening. KETJU also includes post-Newtonian corrections, which allows following the dynamics of SMBH binaries to sub-parsec scales and down to tens of Schwarzschild radii. Systems with multiple SMBHs are also supported, with the code also including the leading non-linear cross terms that appear in the post-Newtonian equations for such systems. We present tests of the code showing that it correctly captures, at sufficient mass resolution, the sinking driven by dynamical friction and binary hardening driven by stellar scattering. We also present an example application demonstrating how the code can be applied to study the dynamics of SMBHs in mergers of multiple galaxies and the effect they have on the properties of the surrounding galaxy. We expect that the presented KETJU SMBH dynamics module can also be straightforwardly incorporated into other codes similar to GADGET-4, which would allow coupling small-scale SMBH dynamics to the rich variety of galactic physics models that exist in the literature.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 8, 2023

First Light and Reionization Epoch Simulations (FLARES) -- XV: The physical properties of super-massive black holes and their impact on galaxies in the early universe

Understanding the co-evolution of super-massive black holes (SMBHs) and their host galaxies remains a key challenge of extragalactic astrophysics, particularly the earliest stages at high-redshift. However, studying SMBHs at high-redshift with cosmological simulations, is challenging due to the large volumes and high-resolution required. Through its innovative simulation strategy, the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) suite of cosmological hydrodynamical zoom simulations allows us to simulate a much wider range of environments which contain SMBHs with masses extending to M_{bullet}>10^{9} M_{odot} at z=5. In this paper, we use FLARES to study the physical properties of SMBHs and their hosts in the early Universe (5le, z le10). FLARES predicts a sharply declining density with increasing redshift, decreasing by a factor of 100 over the range z=5to 10. Comparison between our predicted bolometric luminosity function and pre-JWST observations yield a good match. However, recent JWST observations appear to suggest a larger contribution of SMBHs than previously observed, or predicted by FLARES. Finally, by using a re-simulation with AGN feedback disabled, we explore the impact of AGN feedback on their host galaxies. This reveals that AGN feedback results in a reduction of star formation activity, even at z>5, but only in the most massive galaxies. A deeper analysis reveals that AGN are also the cause of suppressed star formation in passive galaxies but that the presence of an AGN doesn't necessarily result in the suppression of star formation.

  • 12 authors
·
Apr 3, 2024

RABBITS -- I. The crucial role of nuclear star formation in driving the coalescence of supermassive black hole binaries

In this study of the `Resolving supermAssive Black hole Binaries In galacTic hydrodynamical Simulations' (RABBITS) series, we focus on the hardening and coalescing process of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries in galaxy mergers. For simulations including different galaxy formation processes (i.e. gas cooling, star formation, SMBH accretion, stellar and AGN feedback), we systematically control the effect of stochastic eccentricity by fixing it to similar values during the SMBH hardening phase. We find a strong correlation between the SMBH merger time-scales and the presence of nuclear star formation. Throughout the galaxy merging process, gas condenses at the centre due to cooling and tidal torques, leading to nuclear star formation. These recently formed stars, which inherit low angular momenta from the gas, contribute to the loss cone and assist in the SMBH hardening via three-body interactions. Compared to non-radiative hydrodynamical runs, the SMBH merger time-scales measured from the runs including cooling, stellar and SMBH physical processes tend to be shortened by a factor of {sim}1.7. After fixing the eccentricity to the range of e sim 0.6--0.8 during the hardening phase, the simulations with AGN feedback reveal merger time-scales of {sim} 100--500 Myr for disc mergers and {sim} 1--2 Gyr for elliptical mergers. With a semi-analytical approach, we find that the torque interaction between the binary and its circumbinary disc has minimal impact on the shrinking of the binary orbit in our retrograde galaxy merger. Our results are useful in improving the modelling of SMBH merger time-scales and gravitational wave event rates.

  • 8 authors
·
Nov 2, 2023

Modelling the accretion and feedback of supermassive black hole binaries in gas-rich galaxy mergers

We introduce a new model for the accretion and feedback of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries to the KETJU code, which enables us to resolve the evolution of SMBH binaries down to separations of tens of Schwarzschild radii in gas-rich galaxy mergers. Our subgrid binary accretion model extends the widely used Bondi--Hoyle--Lyttleton accretion into the binary phase and incorporates preferential mass accretion onto the secondary SMBH, which is motivated by results from small-scale hydrodynamical circumbinary disc simulations. We perform idealised gas-rich disc galaxy merger simulations using pure thermal or pure kinetic active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback. Our binary accretion model provides more physically motivated SMBH mass ratios, which are one of the key parameters for computing gravitational wave (GW) induced recoil velocities. The merger time-scales of our simulated SMBH binaries are in the range t_{rm merge}{sim} 10--400 Myr. Prograde in-plane equal-mass galaxy mergers lead to the shortest merger time-scales, as they experience the strongest starbursts, with the ensuing high stellar density resulting in a rapid SMBH coalescence. Compared to the thermal AGN feedback, the kinetic AGN feedback predicts longer merger time-scales and results in more core-like stellar profiles, as it is more effective in removing gas from the galaxy centre and quenching star formation. This suggests that the AGN feedback implementation plays a critical role in modelling SMBH coalescences. Our model will be useful for improving the modelling of SMBH mergers in gas-rich galaxies, the prime targets for the upcoming LISA GW observatory.

  • 9 authors
·
Nov 21, 2022

First Light And Reionization Epoch Simulations (FLARES) -- XIX: Supermassive black hole mergers in the early Universe and their environmental dependence

The upcoming space-based gravitational wave (GW) observatory, LISA, is expected to detect GW signals from supermassive black hole (SMBH) mergers occurring at high redshifts. However, understanding the origin and growth of SMBHs in the early Universe remains an open problem in astrophysics. In this work, we utilize the First Light And Reionization Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a suite of cosmological hydrodynamical zoom-in simulations, to study SMBH mergers at 5 lesssim z lesssim 10 across a wide range of environments. Most mergers in FLARES involve secondary SMBHs near the seed mass (m_{seed} approx 1.5 times 10^{5} M_{odot}) while primary SMBHs span up to 10^{9} M_{odot}, resulting in mass ratios from q sim 10^{-4} to 1, with a peak at q sim 1. The number of mergers increases rapidly towards lower redshifts, and the comoving total number density scales with overdensity as n_{merger} = 10^{-3.80} (1 + delta)^{4.56}. Denser regions host more massive mergers, with higher merger redshifts and lower mass ratios. Within the FLARES redshift range, LISA is expected to detect mergers with 10^{5} lesssim M_{tot} / M_{odot} lesssim 10^{8} and q gtrsim 10^{-2}, corresponding to a detection rate of 0.030 yr^{-1} for events with signal-to-noise ratio SNR geq 10. Our study demonstrates the sensitivity of GW predictions at high redshifts to SMBH seed models and merger time delays, highlighting the need for improved modeling in future cosmological simulations to maximize LISA's scientific return.

  • 13 authors
·
May 18, 2025

Accelerated Bayesian Inference for Pulsar Timing Arrays: Normalizing Flows for Rapid Model Comparison Across Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background Sources

The recent detection of nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds (SGWBs) by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) promises unique insights into astrophysical and cosmological origins. However, traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches become prohibitively expensive for large datasets. We employ a normalizing flow (NF)-based machine learning framework to accelerate Bayesian inference in PTA analyses. For the first time, we perform Bayesian model comparison across SGWB source models in the framework of machine learning by training NF architectures on the PTA dataset (NANOGrav 15-year) and enabling direct evidence estimation via learned harmonic mean estimators. Our examples include 10 conventional SGWB source models such as supermassive black hole binaries, power-law spectrum, cosmic strings, domain walls, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, and dual scenario/inflationary gravitational wave. Our approach jointly infers 20 red noise parameters and 2 SGWB parameters per model in sim 20\,hours (including training), compared to sim 10\,days with MCMC. Critically, the NF method preserves rigorous model selection accuracy, with small Hellinger distances (lesssim 0.3) relative to MCMC posteriors, and reproduces MCMC-based Bayes factors across all tested scenarios. This scalable technique for SGWB source comparison will be essential for future PTA expansions and next-generation arrays such as the SKA, offering orders-of-magnitude efficiency gains without sacrificing physical interpretability.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 5, 2025

SgrA* spin and mass estimates through the detection of multiple extremely large mass-ratio inspirals

We analyze the parameter estimation accuracy that can be achieved for the mass and spin of SgrA*, the SMBH in our Galactic Center, by detecting multiple extremely large mass-ratio inspirals (XMRIs). XMRIs are formed by brown dwarfs (BD) inspiraling into a supermassive black hole (SMBH), thus emitting gravitational waves (GWs) inside the detection band of future space-based detectors such as LISA and TianQin. Theoretical estimates suggest the presence of approximately 10 XMRIs emitting detectable GWs, making them some of the most promising candidates for space-based GW detectors. Our analysis indicates that even if individual sources have low SNRs (approx10), high-precision parameter estimates can still be achieved by detecting multiple sources. In this case, the accuracy of the parameter estimates increases by approximately one to two orders of magnitude, at least. Moreover, by analyzing a small sample of 400 initial conditions for XMRIs formed in the Galactic Center, we estimate that almost 80 % of the detectable XMRIs orbiting SgrA* will have eccentricities between 0.43 to 0.95 and an SNRin [10,100]. The remaining sim20 % of the sources have an SNRin [100,1000] and eccentricities ranging from 0.25 to 0.92. Additionally, some XMRIs with high SNR are far from being circular. These loud sources with SNRapprox 1000 can have eccentricities as high as eapprox0.7; although their detection chances are low, representing lesssim2 % of the detectable sources, their presence is not ruled out.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 30, 2024

The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set: Limits on the Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9-year data release from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. We set upper limits for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries under power law, broken power law, and free spectral coefficient GW spectrum models. We place a 95\% upper limit on the strain amplitude (at a frequency of yr^{-1}) in the power law model of A_{rm gw} < 1.5times 10^{-15}. For a broken power law model, we place priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana (2013) and McWilliams et al. (2014). We find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 22 and 2.2 to one for the McWilliams and Sesana prior models, respectively. The McWilliams model is essentially ruled out by the data, and the Sesana model is in tension with the data under the assumption of a pure power law. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. We then place the most stringent limits so far on the energy density of relic GWs, Omega_gw(f),h^2 < 4.2 times 10^{-10}, yielding a limit on the Hubble parameter during inflation of H_*=1.6times10^{-2}~m_{Pl}, where m_{Pl} is the Planck mass. Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, Omega_gw(f), h^2 < 2.2 times 10^{-10}, translates to a conservative limit of Gmu<3.3times 10^{-8} - a factor of 4 better than the joint Planck and high-l CMB data from other experiments.

  • 48 authors
·
Aug 12, 2015

A Machine Learning Framework for Stellar Collision Transient Identification

Modern astronomical surveys, such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), are capable of detecting thousands of transient events per year, necessitating the use of automated and scalable data analysis techniques. Recent advances in machine learning have enabled the efficient classification and characterization of these transient phenomena. We aim to develop a fully systematic pipeline to identify candidate stellar collision events in galactic nuclei, which may otherwise be identified as tidal disruption events or other transients. We also seek to validate our simulations by comparing key physical parameters derived from observations and used in modeling these events. We generate a comprehensive bank of simulated light curves spanning a range of physical parameters and employ an approximate nearest neighbor algorithm (via the annoy library) to match these with observed ZTF light curves. Our pipeline is successfully able to associate observed ZTF light curves with simulated events. The resulting estimated parameters, including supermassive black hole masses and ejecta mass, are presented and compared to known values when applicable. We demonstrate that a systematic, machine learning-based approach can effectively identify and characterize stellar collision candidate events from large-scale transient surveys. This methodology is especially promising for future surveys which will provide us with significantly high volumes of data, such as LSST, where automated, data-intensive analysis will be critical for advancing our understanding of transient astrophysical phenomena.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 15, 2025

European Pulsar Timing Array Limits On An Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

We present new limits on an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using a six pulsar dataset spanning 18 yr of observations from the 2015 European Pulsar Timing Array data release. Performing a Bayesian analysis, we fit simultaneously for the intrinsic noise parameters for each pulsar, along with common correlated signals including clock, and Solar System ephemeris errors, obtaining a robust 95% upper limit on the dimensionless strain amplitude A of the background of A<3.0times 10^{-15} at a reference frequency of 1yr^{-1} and a spectral index of 13/3, corresponding to a background from inspiralling super-massive black hole binaries, constraining the GW energy density to Omega_gw(f)h^2 < 1.1times10^{-9} at 2.8 nHz. We also present limits on the correlated power spectrum at a series of discrete frequencies, and show that our sensitivity to a fiducial isotropic GWB is highest at a frequency of sim 5times10^{-9}~Hz. Finally we discuss the implications of our analysis for the astrophysics of supermassive black hole binaries, and present 95% upper limits on the string tension, Gmu/c^2, characterising a background produced by a cosmic string network for a set of possible scenarios, and for a stochastic relic GWB. For a Nambu-Goto field theory cosmic string network, we set a limit Gmu/c^2<1.3times10^{-7}, identical to that set by the {\it Planck} Collaboration, when combining {\it Planck} and high-ell Cosmic Microwave Background data from other experiments. For a stochastic relic background we set a limit of Omega^relic_gw(f)h^2<1.2 times10^{-9}, a factor of 9 improvement over the most stringent limits previously set by a pulsar timing array.

  • 36 authors
·
Apr 14, 2015

Searching For Anisotropic Gravitational-wave Backgrounds Using Pulsar Timing Arrays

We present the results of simulated injections testing the first Bayesian search-pipeline capable of investigating the angular-structure of a gravitational-wave (GW) background influencing pulsar signals. A stochastic background of GWs from the incoherent superposition of many inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries at nHz frequencies is likely to be the dominant GW signal detectable by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). Even though one might expect a background composed of a high-redshift cosmological population of sources to be fairly isotropic, deviations from isotropy may be indicative of local GW hotspots or some form of continuous anisotropy in the angular-distribution of GW-power. A GWB induces time-of-arrival deviations in pulsar signals which are correlated between separated pulsars. In an isotropic background this cross-correlation follows a distinctive relationship, known as the Hellings and Downs curve, that depends only on the angular separation of the pulsars. If the background is anisotropic, the cross-correlation is different, but predictable, and also depends on the absolute position of the pulsars. By simulating datasets containing GWBs with various anisotropic configurations, we have explored the prospects for constraining anisotropy using near future data. We find that at moderate to high signal to noise ratio the assumption of isotropy is no longer an appropriate description of the simulated background. Furthermore, we can recover the nature of the injected anisotropy in a Bayesian parameter-estimation search, and propose a prior on the anisotropy search-space motivated by the physicality of the implied distribution of sources.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 23, 2013

A helical magnetic field in quasar NRAO150 revealed by Faraday rotation

Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) are some of the most luminous and extreme environments in the Universe. The central engines of AGN, believed to be super-massive black-holes, are fed by accretion discs threaded by magnetic fields within a dense magneto-ionic medium. We report our findings from polarimetric Very-long-baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations of quasar NRAO150 taken in October 2022 using a combined network of the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) and Effelsberg 100-m Radio Telescope. These observations are the first co-temporal multi-frequency polarimetric VLBI observations of NRAO150 at frequencies above 15GHz. We use the new VLBI polarization calibration procedure, GPCAL, with polarization observations of frequencies of 12GHz, 15GHz, 24GHz, and 43GHz of NRAO150. From these observations, we measure Faraday rotation. Using our measurement of Faraday rotation, we also derive the intrinsic electric vector position angle (EVPA0) for the source. As a complementary measurement we determine the behavior of polarization as a function of observed frequency. The polarization from NRAO150 only comes from the core region, with a peak polarization intensity occurring at 24GHz. Across the core region of NRAO150 we see clear gradients in Faraday rotation and EVPA0 values that are aligned with the direction of the jet curving around the core region. We find that for the majority of the polarized region the polarization fraction is greater at higher frequencies, with intrinsic polarization fractions in the core 3%. The Faraday rotation gradients and circular patterns in EVPA0 are strong evidence for a helical/toroidal magnetic field, and the presence of low intrinsic polarization fractions indicate that the polarized emission and hence the helical/toroidal magnetic field, occur within the innermost jet.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 5, 2025

What Drives Cluster Cool-Core Transformations? A Population Level Analysis of TNG-Cluster

In this study, we examine the frequency and physical drivers of transformations from cool-core (CC) to non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, and vice versa, in a sample of 352 massive galaxy clusters (M_vir = 10^14-15.3 M_sun) from the TNG-Cluster magnetohydrodynamical cosmological simulation of galaxies. By identifying transformations based on the evolution of central entropy and focusing on z<2.5, we find that clusters frequently undergo such events, depending on their assembly and supermassive black hole histories. On average, clusters experience 2 to 3 transformations. Transformations can occur in both directions and can be temporary, but those to higher entropy cores, i.e. in the direction from CC to NCC states, are the vast majority. CC phases are shorter than NCC phases, and thus overall the TNG-Cluster population forms with low-entropy cores and moves towards NCC states with time. We study the role that mergers play in driving transformations, and find that mergers within ~1Gyr prior to a transformation toward higher (but not lower) entropy cores occur statistically more often than in a random control sample. Most importantly, we find examples of mergers associated with CC disruption regardless of their mass ratio or angular momentum. However, past merger activity is not a good predictor for z=0 CC status, at least based on core entropy, even though clusters undergoing more mergers eventually have the highest core entropy values at z=0. We consider the interplay between AGN feedback and evolving cluster core thermodynamics. We find that core transformations are accompanied by an increase in AGN activity, whereby frequent and repeated (kinetic) energy injections from the central SMBHs can produce a collective, long-term impact on central entropy, ultimately heating cluster cores. Whether such fast-paced periods of AGN activity are triggered by mergers is plausible, but not necessary.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 3, 2025

Characterising gravitational wave stochastic background anisotropy with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Detecting a stochastic gravitational wave background, particularly radiation from individually unresolvable super-massive black hole binary systems, is one of the primary targets for Pulsar Timing Arrays. Increasingly more stringent upper limits are being set on these signals under the assumption that the background radiation is isotropic. However, some level of anisotropy may be present and the characterisation of the power at different angular scales carries important information. We show that the standard analysis for isotropic backgrounds can be generalised in a conceptually straightforward way to the case of generic anisotropic background radiation by decomposing the angular distribution of the gravitational wave power on the sky into multipole moments. We introduce the concept of generalised overlap reduction functions which characterise the effect of the anisotropy multipoles on the correlation of the timing residuals from the pulsars timed by a Pulsar Timing Array. In a search for a signal characterised by a generic anisotropy, the generalised overlap reduction functions play the role of the so-called Hellings and Downs curve used for isotropic radiation. We compute the generalised overlap reduction functions for a generic level of anisotropy and Pulsar Timing Array configuration. We also provide an order of magnitude estimate of the level of anisotropy that can be expected in the background generated by super-massive black hole binary systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 23, 2013